Ravens vs. Bengals prediction: Bet on Cincy to jump out to big early lead

No team in the NFL put more money in the pockets of bettors over the second half of the season than the Cincinnati Bengals. For that matter, no NFL team has been more profitable over the last 13 months than the Cincinnati Bengals.

So it’s quite understandable that the betting market has pounded the Bengals ahead of their AFC wild card showdown with the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night.

Of course, bettors (and oddsmakers) also have been swayed by two other facts: Cincinnati has won eight consecutive games, and the Ravens will be without their 2019 NFL MVP-winning quarterback.

Can Baltimore prove the betting market wrong, put forth a competitive effort and perhaps even challenge for the upset? Or is Cincinnati destined for a second double-digit home victory over its AFC North rivals in the span of a week?

Our Ravens vs. Bengals prediction addresses neither question — because we honestly aren’t sure how this one plays out over the full 60 minutes.

How it plays out over the first 30 minutes, though? That’s where we have some confidence.

Odds updated as of 9 p.m. ET on Jan. 13.

The full-game point spread for this rematch from Week 18 has been on a high-speed roller coaster ride.

With no definitive word on whether Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson would return after sitting out five-plus games with a knee sprain, oddsmakers initially pegged Cincinnati a 6.5-point favorite.

That number quickly went to Bengals -7, then -7.5 and ultimately skyrocketed to as high as -10 at some sportsbooks on Wednesday when the news officially hit that Jackson was out.

On Friday, though, the point spread dialed back to a consensus of Cincinnati -8.5. That move came on the heels of reports that Baltimore backup quarterback Tyler Huntley — who has been dealing with shoulder and wrist injuries — practiced fully on Friday and is expected to start.

If Huntley wasn’t able to go, the offense would’ve fallen into the hands of rookie Anthony Brown for the second straight week.

With Jackson and Huntley sidelined, Brown threw for 286 yards in his first career start last Sunday in Cincinnati. However, he needed 44 pass attempts to pile up those yards.

He also committed three turnovers (two interceptions, one fumble) that the Begnals turned into 17 points (including a defensive TD) on the way to a 27-16 win.

Assuming Huntley gets the call, Baltimore certainly figures to have a better shot at hanging in this game. The third-year pro went 2-2 in four starts in place of Jackson, and also rallied his team to a 10-9 home win over Denver after Jackson got hurt.

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Then again, the opponents Huntley faced — Broncos, Steelers (twice), Browns and Falcons — aren’t in the same stratosphere as Cincinnati.

The Bengals come into the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak. They covered the spread in the first seven of those contests before coming up a half-point short as an 11.5-point favorite last week against the Ravens.

Quarterback Joe Burrow and the offense have averaged exactly 29 points during the winning streak, putting up at least 20 in every outing. And the defense has done its part, holding five opponents to 21 points or fewer (average of 19.8 per contest).

So why not just lay the full 8.5 points with Cincinnati — a team that’s 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games (including seven double-digit victories)? And 20-4 ATS since Dec. 19, 2021 (playoffs included)?

After all, the Ravens haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of their last six games dating to the Denver contest in which Jackson went down.

Here’s the overarching reason: The Bengals view themselves (and rightly so) as a Super Bowl contender. As such, the plan for this game against a clearly outmanned opponent is to build a big early lead, drain the clock in the second half and move the hell on.

And guess what? That’s exactly how Cincinnati coach Zac Taylor played it last week against Baltimore.

Thanks in part to Brown’s miscues, the Bengals jumped out to a 17-0 lead less than a minute into the second quarter and went into the locker room up 24-7. After halftime, the teams combined for four field goals (three by Baltimore), and the Ravens covered the closing number.

Sure, Huntley (three interceptions in 112 pass attempts this season) should do a better job of protecting the ball than Brown. But will he be able to generate points? Again, Baltimore is averaging just 12.5 points in its last six games.

During this stretch, they have just 50 first-half points (including four touchdowns).

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By comparison, the Bengals — not including last week’s defensive touchdown — has averaged 15.5 first-half points during its eight-game winning streak. And that includes a 3-point first half against Tampa Bay in Week 16.

Obviously, Baltimore coach John Harbaugh is going to be hellbent on slowing the game down and keeping the ball out of Burrow’s hands as long as possible. And that plan might work.

But if the Bengals can find the end zone just twice in the first half — a reasonable expectation — it’s difficult to see them not covering the first-half number. Heck, 10 points might do the trick. Because the Ravens cannot score.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.