Rose Bowl prediction: Bet on Utah to edge Penn State in Pasadena

If recent history is any indicator, the Rose Bowl clash between Penn State and Utah is destined to be doozy.

The last five games played at the iconic Rose Bowl venue in Pasadena, California, have been decided by a total of 18 points (including three by a field goal or less). And a total of 402 points were scored in the five contests.

What’s more, Penn State and Utah were involved in two of the shootouts. On New Year’s Day 2017, the Nittany Lions fell 52-49 to USC. Last year, Utah came out on the short end of a 48-45 thriller against Penn State.

Based on the posted total, oddsmakers certainly don’t anticipate similar offensive fireworks Monday when the Nittany Lions and Utes meet for the first time. However, they do expect another down-to-the-wire nailbiter.

What do we expect? Here’s our Rose Bowl prediction for Penn State vs. Utah.

Odds updated as of 9 p.m. ET on Dec. 29.

First off, both teams arrived in Pasadena missing some key components.

Penn State will be without shutdown cornerback Joey Porter Jr., a second-team All-American who opted out after declaring for the NFL Draft. So did Parker Washington, the Nittany Lions’ No. 1 wideout who sat out the last two regular season games with an injury.

Utah also will be without a stud defensive back and productive pass catcher, as both cornerback Clark Phillips III and tight end Dalton Kincaid opted out.

Phillips is a skilled cover corner who is just a notch below Penn State’s Porter, while Kincaid emerged as arguably the best tight end in the country this season. He had 70 catches, 890 yards and eight touchdowns, all team highs.

So the playing field is fairly level as far as who will and won’t play Monday. Which seems appropriate, given that these teams are about as equal as it gets.

Penn State is 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS (including an ongoing six-game cover streak), outscoring opponents by an average of 18 points per game (36-18) and led by a veteran quarterback (senior Sean Clifford).

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The Utes are 10-3 SU, 8-4 ATS, outscoring opponents by 20 points per game (40-20) and led by an experienced signal caller (sophomore Cam Rising).

Needless to say, this was not an easy matchup to handicap. Yet we give the slight edge to the slight favorite for two primary reasons: Utah has more quality victories, and many of the players who suffered that excruciating Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State last year are back for this one — and they’re determined to finish the job.

To that latter point, the Utes blew multiple two-touchdown leads against the Buckeyes in the 2022 Rose Bowl (which returned to Pasadena after being moved to Texas the previous year because of COVID).

Then after losing Rising to a head injury in the fourth quarter, Utah managed to rally for a game-tying touchdown with just under two minutes to play, only to watch Ohio State kick the winning field goal with nine seconds remaining.

The loss dropped the Utes to 15-4 in bowl games since 1999, including 11-4 under coach Kyle Whittingham. Three of those defeats, though, came in the last four years — yet another motivator for Utah’s upperclassmen.

Obviously, Penn State wants to close out the 2022-23 season with the school’s first Rose Bowl win since January 1995. And coach James Franklin — who is 2-4 in his last six bowl games — definitely has the roster to do it.

The Nittany Lions capped the regular season with four wins by a combined margin of 155-40. In fact, after a season-opening 35-31 win at Purdue, Penn State’s final nine victories were double-digit blowouts.

The team’s only two losses? They came against Michigan (41-17 road) and Ohio State (44-31 home) — which is half of the four-team College Football Playoff field.

That’s the issue, though: Both times the Nittany Lions stepped up in class this season, they got wiped out. (Although, in fairness, they had Ohio State on the ropes until things got away in the fourth quarter.)

Penn State’s best win, aside from the season opener at Purdue? Probably a 30-0 home rout of Maryland (which finished 7-5).

Meanwhile, Utah beat USC twice (including a 47-24 thrashing in the Pac-12 championship game). The Utes also crushed a solid Oregon State outfit (42-16), and nearly won at Oregon (20-17 loss) and at Florida (last-second 29-26 loss to open the season).

Lastly, when the pressure mounts in this game — and it inevitably will for both sides — we simply trust Rising to come up big more than we do Clifford.

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A dual-threat quarterback, Rising passed for nearly 3,000 yards, ran for more than 400 (averaging 6 yards per carry), and had 32 total touchdowns and just seven interceptions.

He’s also backed by a trio of running backs who combined for 902 rushing yards and 15 TDs.

Clifford put up solid numbers (2,543 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, five rushing TDs, seven interceptions). But he committed four turnovers (three picks and a fumble) against Ohio State, and went just 7-for-19 for 120 yards against Michigan.

And while Rising undoubtedly will miss Kincad, Clifford not having Washington (team-best 46 catches, 611 yards and 13.3 yards per catch) will hurt more.

Again, this has all the makings of a very competitive matchup — one that likely will be in doubt late in the fourth quarter. Because of that, we recommend taking the point spread out of the equation and playing Utah on the moneyline at Caesars Sportsbook.

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