SEC futures: How to fade Oklahoma’s won total and backing Florida to recover

Football in the SEC just got a lot more interesting following the addition of Texas and Oklahoma to form a 16-team league.

Each SEC team will play eight conference games for this upcoming season and face at least one Power 5 non-conference opponent.

The league will also eliminate the East and West divisions, as the two teams with the best conference winning percentages will play in the SEC title.

With 16 teams now in the conference, the task of picking win totals just became inherently more challenging.

However, we can still make some firm assumptions based on each team’s returning production and overall performance against their win total from a season ago.

After winning six games in Brent Venables’ first season as a head coach, the Oklahoma Sooners went on to win 10 games, including a 34-30 victory over its rivals, the Texas Longhorns.

However, Oklahoma will undoubtedly have to step up in class as it transitions from the Big 12 to the SEC.

The Sooners will be without quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who left Oklahoma for the University of Oregon.

Jackson Arnold will likely replace Gabriel under center, but the sophomore quarterback was more of a mixed bag in his lone start against Arizona in the Valero Alamo Bowl.

Arnold completed 26 of 45 passes for 361 yards while throwing two touchdowns and three interceptions.

According to Steve Lassan and Althon Sports, Oklahoma returns the second-fewest starters (two) on offense in the SEC, which doesn’t bode well for a team transitioning to an even tougher conference.

The biggest issue with Oklahoma’s win total of 7.5 is it faces a brutal schedule to end the season with two road games against Missouri and LSU and a home game against Alabama.

With such a brutal stretch of games, the Sooners cannot afford any slip-ups early in their schedule.

That’s simply too much pressure on a team that will be trying to figure things out with a young quarterback.

Given the scenario, the under offers tremendous value with Oklahoma’s win total.

» READ MORE: Back Ole Miss’ value to win the SEC and hit the over on its win total prop

In 2023, the Florida Gators went under their win total of 5.5 games, and they faced the same opening number this season.

However, that number was quickly bet down to 4.5 at most sportsbooks.

The adjustment to the Gators’ win total feels like an overreaction, considering they return the second-most starters (14) in the SEC.

Moreover, a closer look at their schedule reveals a two-point loss on the road to Missouri and an overtime loss at home to Arkansas.

This is potentially a make-or-break season for head coach Billy Napier, who is just 11-14 in Gainesville.

Thus, I’d expect the Gators to show a tremendous amount of fight for their head coach.

After struggling to impress at Wisconsin, quarterback Graham Mertz threw for 2,903 yards as a redshirt junior while posting a 20-3 touchdown-interception ratio.

The Gators added Mertz’s former teammate from Wisconsin by landing wide receiver Chimere Dike in the offseason.

Dike will line up alongside Arizona State transfer Elijhah Badger to bolster Gators’ receiving corps.

It’s not often that you see such a high-profile national program like Florida with such a low win total, making this a decent buy-low spot to back the over.

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