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EPL best bet for Saturday: Bank on Brentford to catch Arsenal looking ahead

Will the Bees catch the league-leaders looking ahead to Wednesday’s match?

Leandro Trossard and Eddie Nketiah of Arsenal look dejected after James Tarkowski of Everton (not pictured) scores their sides first goal during the Premier League match between Everton FC and Arsenal FC at Goodison Park on February 04, 2023 in Liverpool, England. (Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)
Leandro Trossard and Eddie Nketiah of Arsenal look dejected after James Tarkowski of Everton (not pictured) scores their sides first goal during the Premier League match between Everton FC and Arsenal FC at Goodison Park on February 04, 2023 in Liverpool, England. (Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)Read moreGARETH COPLEY / Getty Images
    by Michael Leboff, Action Network
    Published 

It’s a huge week for the Premier League title race. Not only do Arsenal and Manchester City have tricky fixtures over the weekend, but the two contenders will meet for the first time this season on Wednesday afternoon at the Emirates Stadium in North London.

But before that headliner, Arsenal have a date with red-hot Brentford on Saturday morning.

Will the Bees catch the Gunners looking ahead to Manchester City?

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Arsenal vs. Brentford prediction: Pick

  1. Brentford +650 (FanDuel)

Arsenal vs. Brentford prediction: Analysis

Not only is this a precarious situational spot for Arsenal, but they’re also hosting a team in great form. Brentford is one of two teams (Newcastle) that has not lost a match since the World Cup hiatus ended on Boxing Day. The Bees are 4-2-0 (W-D-L) with a +9 goal difference and +4.3 expected goal (xG) differential in that span. Brentford also upset Manchester City as +1900 underdogs in their last match before the break. The Bees are buzzing.

Brentford’s attack is certainly in good form with 12 goals and 9.7 xG created in its last six contests, but the defense is providing a great platform for the Bees to build on. Brentford has pitched three straight clean sheets and has conceded more than one goal in just one of its last seven matches.

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That defensive form will need to carry over into Saturday’s contest with Arsenal, as Brentford has very little chance of keeping up with the Gunners if this game goes back and forth.

But if this contest plays out more like a chess match, there’s absolutely a path to success for the Bees, who should be brimming with confidence considering they have wins over Manchester United, Man City and Liverpool already this season.

The numbers for this match will all point to Arsenal. They rank first or second in basically every metric this season. But as we saw last week at Goodison Park, there is a way to give them problems. Brentford is a very good pressing team that knows when to pounce and counter, and that prowess will be vital against a team that doesn’t give up many scoring opportunities going the other way.

A well-coached, adaptable team, Brentford always seem to punch up well in these spots. They may not win -- the odds suggest they have roughly a 13.3% chance of pulling the upset -- but it is likely that they’re able to provide a stiff test for Arsenal, who are in a tough spot on Saturday.

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