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Arsenal vs. Brighton prediction: Bet on a lot of goals, and both sides to score, in Sunday’s EPL match

Before title chasers Arsenal welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to the Emirates Stadium, we outline our best bet for the match.

Gabriel Martinelli of Arsenal battles for possession with Jeremy Sarmiento of Brighton & Hove Albion during the Premier League match between Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal FC at American Express Community Stadium on December 31, 2022 in Brighton, England.
Gabriel Martinelli of Arsenal battles for possession with Jeremy Sarmiento of Brighton & Hove Albion during the Premier League match between Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal FC at American Express Community Stadium on December 31, 2022 in Brighton, England.Read moreSteve Bardens / Getty Images

Ahead of Sunday’s marquee Premier League fixture in North London, we’re set to share an Arsenal vs. Brighton & Hove Albion prediction.

Having played one more game than league-leading Manchester City, Arsenal sit one point behind for the title and need to win in order to keep pace. Brighton, meanwhile, have five matches left to play and could still challenge for one of the European competition spots.

Arsenal is a -130 home favorite on Sunday with Brighton and the draw priced at +310 and +300, respectively. The total is set at 3.5 goals, juiced -175 to the under.

Arsenal vs. Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction: Pick

  1. Same-Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-135 | Bet to -145)

Arsenal vs. Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction: Analysis

A lot of juice to lay on a same-game parlay, but this game has goals written all over it.

The reverse fixture at the Amex proved just as hectic with Arsenal earning a 4-2 road win. In terms of expected goals and big scoring chances, it was 2.93-1.17 and 5-2 in favor of the Gunners.

There’s simply no world in which this leaky Brighton defense can hold Arsenal goalless. Manager Mikel Arteta’s side has scored in all but one home match while Brighton have conceded in all but two road matches. So the first element of this parlay is effectively a bet on Brighton.

Albeit at home, their offensive record against Arsenal is very encouraging, especially when you factor in key injuries for the Arsenal defense. Left back Oleksandr Zinchenko, center back William Saliba and right back Takehiro Tomiyasu will be out, leaving Arsenal without key defensive players.

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Since Saliba went out, Arsenal have played eight games and have allowed opponents to score at least once in all but one.

That’s good news for Brighton’s attack, which ranks third in expected goals away from home, per fbref.com.

So, the first element feels pretty safe, which leads us to the second leg of this parlay: over 2.5 goals.

That element is effectively a bet against the Brighton defense, which has looked horrendous in recent matches. Across the Seagulls’ previous four games, they’ve allowed 1.73 expected goals per 90 minutes, including 2.3 xG at home to Everton.

Now, they have to face an Arsenal team creating 2.29 expected goals per 90 minutes at the Emirates, again per fbref.com.

Seeing as Arsenal created almost three expected goals away from home where they’re creating 1.58 xG per 90 for the season, they should have issue doing it at home as they chase a must-needed win.

Based on those trends, take this same-game parlay at -145 or better on Sunday.

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