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Germany vs. Costa Rica odds, pick: Bet on there being a lot of goals

Will Germany run up the score against Los Ticos?

Serge Gnabry of Germany looks on during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Group E match between Spain and Germany at Al Bayt Stadium on November 27, 2022 in Al Khor, Qatar. (Photo by Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images)
Serge Gnabry of Germany looks on during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Group E match between Spain and Germany at Al Bayt Stadium on November 27, 2022 in Al Khor, Qatar. (Photo by Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images)Read moreALEXANDER HASSENSTEIN GETTY IMAGES / Getty Images

The fact that Costa Rica still has a chance to advance to the Round of 16 at this World Cup is pretty impressive.

One of the biggest longshots in the entire 32-team field, Los Ticos lost their first match of the tournament, 7-0, to Spain. But instead of capitulating, the Costa Ricans completely flipped the script by upsetting Japan — who had just beat Germany a few days prior — to keep their hopes of advancing alive.

Now all Costa Rica needs to do to get through to the knockout stage is to get a point against Germany. Should be a cinch, no?

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Costa Rica vs. Germany prediction: Pick:

  1. Over 4.5 Goals (+200, FanDuel)

Costa Rica vs. Germany prediction: Analysis

Germany’s task on Thursday is simple. Die Mannschaft needs to beat Costa Rica (they are -900 favorites to do so) and get some help from Spain against Japan to advance. Considering they have yet to win a match in Qatar, Germany are pretty fortunate to be in this spot and they should have no issue taking care of their part of the equation against an overmatched Costa Rica side.

Los Ticos were a game opponent against Japan, but Samurai Blue are not a team built to break down a team that likes to sit deep and defend like Costa Rica. Japan only created 0.9 expected goals and allowed just one shot on goal, which just happened to go in the back of the net thanks to a goalkeeping mishap.

» READ MORE: World Cup odds: USA soccer opens as underdog against Netherlands in Round of 16 matchup

Holding Japan scoreless is one thing, but to do it against Germany is a completely different animal. Costa Rica saw that firsthand a week ago when it allowed seven goals to a Spanish side that profiles similarly to Germany.

Germany’s biggest weakness is that it struggles to defend in transition against teams that can force turnovers high up the pitch. We saw that vulnerability on display against Japan, but Costa Rica doesn’t play like Samurai Blue. Los Ticos are a much more pragmatic group and don’t have the team speed and technical skill needed to threaten Germany going the other way. The Germans can basically camp out in the Costa Rican half and not worry too much about getting caught.

That should lead to plenty of scoring chances for Germany, who should be able to name their score against one of the weakest teams in the tournament.

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