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Inter vs. AC Milan prediction: Count on Inter to take the first leg

Which Italian side holds value in the Milan Derby on Wednesday?

Lautaro Martinez of FC Internazionale celebrates after scoring the team's sixth goal during the Serie A match between Hellas Verona and FC Internazionale at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi on May 03, 2023 in Verona, Italy. (Photo by Alessandro Sabattini/Getty Images)
Lautaro Martinez of FC Internazionale celebrates after scoring the team's sixth goal during the Serie A match between Hellas Verona and FC Internazionale at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi on May 03, 2023 in Verona, Italy. (Photo by Alessandro Sabattini/Getty Images)Read moresabattini / Getty Images

We are down to the final four teams in the 2022-23 Champions League and the theme of the unbalanced draw continues into the semifinals.

While soccer fanatics will enjoy the treat of a Milan Derby to decide one of the finalists, it’s fair to say those two Italian giants should feel fortunate that they avoided a date with Manchester City or Real Madrid until the final.

But before we get to that final, we must talk about AC Milan vs. Inter. And boy, will this be some spectacle.

Inter Milan vs. AC Milan prediction

  1. Inter +140 (BetMGM)

The first thing bettors need to know about this fixture is that both AC Milan and Internazionale play in the same stadium — the San Siro — so the home-field advantage gets muted. Sure, the “home team” will get more of its fans in the building thanks to ticket allocation, but there’s no travel advantages. Everybody will be sleeping in their own bed.

The next thing that must be noted is the status of AC Milan superstar Rafael Leao. The 23-year-old forward leads the Rossoneri in goals and assists, but is a serious doubt for this tilt after he picked up a knock over the weekend against Lazio.

» READ MORE: Real Madrid vs. Manchester City prediction: How we’re betting Tuesday’s Champions League clash

Even if Leao does play and is fully fit, it is fair to wonder if Milan will have enough to break down a robust Inter defense. The Nerrazzurri have won five matches in a row across all competitions and have conceded just one goal in that span. In fact, Inter has allowed more than one goal just once in its last 13 contests and it’s not like things don’t look impressive under the hood, either. Inter hasn’t allowed a team to go over 1.0 expected goals in its last six contests.

Inter’s attack has also been more consistent than its rival this season. While AC Milan ranks inside the top-four in Serie A in goals, expected goals, shots per 90 and big scoring chances, Inter ranks first or second in each of those categories.

AC Milan is a young, dynamic side and perhaps can turn this two-leg fixture into a track meet, but that seems unlikely against an experienced Inter side that is better than their rivals in basically every facet of the match.

Inter looks to have some value in this match at +140.

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