Premier League: How to bet Nottingham Forest vs. Wolverhampton Saturday morning

It’s very rare that we get such a dramatic relegation battle in the English Premier League. Usually by this time in the season we already have at least one team that is almost guaranteed to go down to the second division and then one other that is a pretty heavy favorite. But 2022-23 is an anomaly as there are nine teams separated by just four points.

Two of those teams, 16th-place Nottingham Forest (26 points) and 13th-place Wolverhampton Wanderers (27 points), will meet on Saturday morning at the City Ground in Nottingham.

Prior to the World Cup hiatus, it looked bleak for Wolves. They were sitting in last place with two wins and 10 points from their first 15 games. Wolverhampton had scored just eight times in that span.

But Wolves came back from the break with some jump, going 4-1-2 (W-D-L) in their first seven matches after Qatar. As vital as those results were for Wolverhampton’s survival chances, they did mask some serious flaws.

Despite collecting 15 from a possible 21 points right after the World Cup, Wolverhampton were starting to show some serious issues, especially defensively. But what was most peculiar is that Wolves looked like a completely different team.

For the first portion of the season, Wolverhampton was a low-event team that tried to grind out results with structured play and responsible defense. That didn’t work out, so a change in tactic came after the break. Since the World Cup, Wolves boast a minus-3 goal differential with 14 GF and 17 GA, opting to play in more high-event matches than they did in the first half of the campaign.

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But underneath the surface things look a little bleaker. Wolverhampton has posted a -7.6 xG differential since the break, which is slightly worse than what we saw from Wolves before the World Cup.

Nottingham Forest isn’t a good team, either. Forest is right behind Wolves in the table and comes into this match riding a six-match winless streak. But the Tricky Trees are at home and, while Wolves may be the stronger team, the difference isn’t meaningful enough that Wolverhampton should be favorites on the road.

This is a good buy-low spot on Forest in a relegation six-pointer on Saturday morning.

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