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Bet on Lightning as underdogs against overvalued Maple Leafs in Monday night’s matchup

Is the market still overrating the Leafs?

ACTION NETWORK USE ONLY The Toronto Maple Leafs celebrate an overtime goal by Ryan O'Reilly #90 of the Toronto Maple Leafs during Game Three of the First Round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena on April 22, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
ACTION NETWORK USE ONLY The Toronto Maple Leafs celebrate an overtime goal by Ryan O'Reilly #90 of the Toronto Maple Leafs during Game Three of the First Round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena on April 22, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)Read moreMike Ehrmann / Getty Images
    by Michael Leboff, Action Network
    Published 

Things are quite turbulent for the Toronto Maple Leafs right now. Not only are the Leafs in the midst of an 0-2-2 skid, but the media pressure on the team has turned up quite a bit after an ugly weekend that saw the team’s character get called into question.

Will we see the Leafs push back against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday night?

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Analysis

We’ve seen this Maple Leafs’ core endure skids like this in previous regular seasons and this is usually when they become a galvanized force and go on a run, but this version of the Buds seems different -- and not in a good way. The Leafs have taken a massive step back defensively and they’re getting no production from any of their depth forwards.

Toronto’s forwards have scored 32 goals this season and 26 of them have come from four players: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares and Mitch Marner. That’s a shade under 82%.

It’s no secret that Toronto is top-heavy, but no NHL team will have success with splits like that -- especially if the defense is leaking scoring chances left and right. The Leafs boasted some of the best defensive metrics in the circuit over the last two seasons, but things look ugly under the hood thus far. Toronto ranks 20th in goals against average, 23rd in expected goals against per 60 minutes and 28th in high-danger scoring chances allowed through their first 12 contests.

Tampa Bay hasn’t been great out of the gates, either, but the Bolts are playing a tidier style of hockey compared to their Atlantic Division rivals right now and they have the scoring power to match Toronto’s elite players.

The Maple Leafs have been priced as one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup for the past handful of seasons and they were right up there again this October, but it is becoming increasingly more clear that this version of the Leafs has plenty of work to do to get on par with the previous iterations. The market just hasn’t caught onto that yet.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Pick

  1. Tampa Bay Lightning +130 (DraftKings)

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