ATP London: How we’re betting Cam Norrie vs. Sebastian Korda at Queen’s Club

Sebastian Korda’s 2023 season got off to a terrific start. The 22-year-old American went to the final at ATP Adelaide — his first tournament of the year — and was a trendy dark horse pick to make a run at the Australian Open. Korda did make a charge in Melbourne, but he wound up getting injured in a quarterfinal match against Karen Khachanov and would be sidelined for four months.

Korda would lose his first two matches after the layoff, but he got back on the board with a win over Mackenzie McDonald at Roland Garros and now is into the quarterfinals at ATP London after two wins over Daniel Evans and Frances Tiafoe.

It looks like Korda is back on song, but will it be enough to overcome World No. 13 Cam Norrie on Friday?

One of the most consistent players on the ATP Tour, Norrie has built a career on fitness and movement. He may not have the toolkit that most elite players on the circuit have, but he’s a master at hanging around in points and dragging his opponents into the deep end of the pool. That skillset has translated well onto the grass, as Norrie has won 15 of his last 20 matches on the lawn — including making it to the final here in 2021 — and is 3-0 on the surface in 2023.

Korda is also a slick mover and has plenty of raw athleticism, so it’s not surprising that he’s won more than he’s lost on the grass (8-4). But he’s far less experienced on the lawn compared to Norrie, who has played 40 tour-level matches on the surface in his career.

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It does seem like Korda has his game pointing in the right direction after a long layoff, but it seems like the market is perhaps a little overconfident in a player that is playing in his sixth match since January. Norrie’s fitness should be the difference in this match and I think the Brit is undervalued as a slight favorite on Friday morning in London.

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