How we’re betting Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Musetti at Queen’s Club in London

Ben Shelton’s first career match on a grass court went quite well.

The 20-year-old defeated fellow American J.J. Wolf, 7-6, 7-6, in ATP London’s Round of 32 at Queen’s Club to earn a shot at World No. 16 Lorenzo Musetti in the Round of 16. Musetti is a -200 favorite at the time of writing.

Is Shelton worth betting as an underdog?

On the surface everything points to Musetti in this match. The Italian is the higher-ranked player, he’s coming off a decent clay-court season and the 21-year-old is more experienced on this surface compared to Shelton.

Shelton, meanwhile, is about to play his second match ever on a grass court and is just one contest removed from a four-match losing streak against players all ranked below him. In fact, Shelton hasn’t defeated an opponent ranked above him since he took out Wolf in the Round of 16 at the Australian Open in January.

This all may sound like a walk in the park for Musetti on Thursday, but there’s more to this match than meets the eye. While Musetti is more experienced on grass compared to Shelton, it’s not by much and the Italian has not taken to the surface well in his young career. Musetti is just 3-5 on the lawn and his three victories have come against Gregoire Barrere, Borna Gojo and Jan Choinski. None of those players are ranked inside the top-50 and the latter two are both sitting outside the top-100.

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And even though Shelton’s experience on grass is basically zilch, his game should translate pretty well. The Atlanta native had his best run on the quick hard courts in Australia during the first few months of the season and then began to struggle as the conditions slowed down through the late winter and spring. Shelton will need to pick up the nuances of moving on grass, but his raw ability and power should make him a handful. Plus, it’s not like he’s playing an opponent who has those tricks down, either.

These odds make plenty of sense on the surface, but when you dig a little deeper you’ll see that this price flatters Musetti a bit. Shelton should be able to make a real go of this on Wednesday and could pay off at a decent price.

The Bet: Ben Shelton +145 (DK)

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