French Open: Who will win the Casper Ruud vs. Holger Rune quarterfinal showdown?

We’re getting toward the business end of the 2023 French Open and Wednesday’s quarterfinal between Casper Ruud and Holger Rune has the potential to be one of the matches of the tournament. Not only are these two of the best players in the sport, but there’s an emerging rivalry between the two Scandinavians.

This will be the sixth meeting all-time between the two top-10 players and it’s the second year in a row that they will meet at this junction of the French Open. Ruud defeated Rune in four sets at Roland Garros in 2022, but the real story of that match was what came afterwards as the two players reportedly exchanged post-match pleasantries in the locker room.

Ruud is a -130 favorite to beat Rune on Wednesday.

In terms of personalities, these two combatants are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Rune, 20, is full of bravado and never has a problem getting himself motivated for any tennis match. Ruud, on the other hand, is a much more stoic player looking to just get on with the tennis. The oil-and-vinegar nature of this tilt should make for fantastic viewing and will also come into play from a handicapping perspective.

What will also make for compelling viewing and betting is the fact that there really isn’t all that much separating these two players at this point in their respective careers. Ruud is the more experienced player and has been to a pair of Grand Slam Finals (including last year’s French Open), but Rune has the edge in terms of raw talent. You’d trust that Ruud would be more composed, but at the same time you’d give Rune the edge in terms of getting his opponent off his game.

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Rune is coming off an epic five-set victory over Francisco Cerundolo in the Round of 16 and there seems to be a bit of concern in the betting market about the Dane’s form after that performance. Rune ended up the victor, but it was an adventure to get there and it seemed like the 20-year-old was struggling with his fitness at time.

The other way to look at it is that Rune didn’t have his best stuff on Monday and was able to grind out a win thanks to his terrific defense and movement on clay.

While Rune had to overcome a fifth-set tiebreaker in his last match, Ruud has yet to really be under pressure in this tournament. The Norwegian dropped a set in his matches with Giulio Zeppieri and Zhizhen Zhang, but it’s been relatively smooth sailing for Ruud through the first 10 days of the tournament.

That should change on Wednesday.Ruud is the more physical player and will look to drag Rune into the deep end of the pool with his forehand, but Rune’s defense and backhand could negate that advantage. The Dane should also be full of confidence after defeating Ruud for the first time in his career just a couple of weeks ago in the semifinals of the Rome Masters 1000.

The market is suggesting this match is pretty close to a coin flip with Ruud holding a slight edge. I’d go the other way and would play Rune at any plus-money number.

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