Bet on the over when Taylor Fritz and Juan Pablo Varillas face off in US Open Wednesday

Taylor Fritz has enjoyed some big moments in his career, most notably winning the 2022 Indian Wells Masters, but there is still a pretty glaring hole on his resume when it comes to his performances in grand slams. The World No. 9 has played in 25 major tournaments and has made it to the quarterfinals just once (Wimbledon, 2022).

His record at the US Open is especially confounding as you’d think that an American with a massive serve would take well to the conditions. That hasn’t been the case, though, as Fritz has never made it past the third round in Flushing Meadows and was famously upset by World No. 303 Brandon Holt last year.

Fritz was a massive favorite over Steve Johnson in Round 1 and took care of his compatriot quickly, but there’s reason to believe that his Round 2 opponent, Juan Pablo Varillas, could cause him more problems.

The questions about Fritz’s performance at Grand Slams will follow him until he breaks through, but the American does come into this fortnight in a decent nick of form. Fritz won a relatively easy tournament in Atlanta, went to the semifinals at ATP Washington and has won 12 of his 15 hard-court matches since Wimbledon, though he did get completely dominated by Novak Djokovic in his final tune-up for the US Open.

Varillas has had a very different schedule than Fritz. A South American clay-court specialist, Varillas turned some heads with a five-set loss to Alexander Zverev at the Australian Open and then followed that up with a run to the semifinals in Buenos Aires and then an appearance in the Round of 16 at the French Open. The Peruvian seems to have a knack for raising his level on big stages and against elite competition as he’s got wins over top-25 players Hubert Hurkacz, Lorenzo Musetti and Roberto Bautista-Agut this season.

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Considering he has very little hard-court experience, not much was expected out of Varillas at the US Open but he was able to stir a big upset against Miomir Kecmanovic in Round 1 to earn himself a shot at Fritz on Wednesday.

In all likelihood, Fritz has too much power and experience on hard courts for Varillas, but the Peruvian has proven that he’s no pushover and if he’s able to put any pressure on the American there’s a non-zero chance that the World No. 9 gets tight given his demons at this event. A play on the Over 29.5 games at even money seems like a decent way to invest in Varillas and I wouldn’t scoff at anybody putting a small stake on the Varillas moneyline at +1700.

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