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World Cup predictions, picks: How to bet USA vs. Iran in pivotal match

The USMNT needs a win to advance to the Round of 16

AL KHOR, QATAR - NOVEMBER 25: USA player Yunus Musah in action during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Group B match between England and USA at Al Bayt Stadium on November 25, 2022 in Al Khor, Qatar. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
AL KHOR, QATAR - NOVEMBER 25: USA player Yunus Musah in action during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Group B match between England and USA at Al Bayt Stadium on November 25, 2022 in Al Khor, Qatar. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)Read moreStu Forster / Getty Images

It’s a straightforward task for the United States Men’s National Team: Win or go home.

Sitting on two points after two matches at the 2022 World Cup, the USMNT need a victory over Iran on Tuesday afternoon to advance to the Round of 16. The Yanks are a -105 favorite on the three-way moneyline against Iran, but those odds imply that the USA wins this match 51.2% of the time.

Is that number too short? Or should bettors back the Yanks to go marching on?

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USA vs. Iran prediction: Pick

  1. USA Moneyline/Over 2.5 goals (+222, FanDuel)

USA vs. Iran prediction: Analysis

One of the great things about handicapping tournaments like this is that game theory plays a big role. Iran only needs a draw to advance, while the USMNT would be eliminated if they don’t win. That will impact how these teams set up, but it will also have an effect on how this game is bet.

Knowing that Iran — a team that is most comfortable playing low-event matches and trying to grind out results — would get through if they avoid defeat, you can probably expect a lot of money to come in on bets that are correlated with a rock fight. Money will likely show up on the under, Iran under 0.5 goal and exact scorelines like 1-0 to USMNT. That should create some value zagging the narrative and backing this match to be more chaotic than people realize.

And there are a number of different ways this match could get off the rails fast.

While Iran and manager Carlos Queiroz are adept at setting up defensively and dragging more talented teams into the deep end, this situation also plays into the USMNT’s hands.

The Americans may not have the dependable No. 9 you want in a situation like this, but they have plenty to offer going forward with Christian Pulisic, Tim Weah, Gio Reyna and Brandon Aaronson. Those attacking players should also feel pretty comfortable flowing forward and taking risks, as the American midfield, which is composed of Tyler Adams, Yunus Musah and Weston McKennie, has been a revelation so far this tournament.

The USMNT also have two fullbacks who are great at getting up the field, which should help stretch out a very compact defense.

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But just because the USA has a distinct talent advantage going forward doesn’t mean they’ll just run over the Lions of Persia.

Ask anybody who is familiar with Queiroz and they’ll tell you that he was built for a situation like this. The Portuguese will never be classified as a progressive manager, but it’s not as if his defensive style has not yielded positive results for Iran. He makes the most of what he’s given and he’ll be comfortable setting his team up to take advantage of a spot where they can get through to the Round of 16 with a draw.

So while the USMNT will have the majority of the possession in this contest, that will almost be by design from Iran. You can expect the Lions of Persia to sit back in a 4-5-1 and look to break the Yanks on the counterattack with the talismanic duo of Mehdi Taremi and Sardar Azmoun.

And even though everyone is expecting Iran to defend with their lives, that doesn’t mean they aren’t going to be aggressively looking for chances to spring counters. A 1-0 lead for the Lions of Persia would turn the heat way up on the USMNT and would force them to bomb everyone forward and take risk after risk.

On the other hand, an early goal for the USA would force Iran to open up immediately and start taking chances to tie the match.

In other words, one ball in the back of the net and this game could fly off the handle.

That’s why betting against the common narrative — which is that Iran will park the bus and sell out for a 0-0 draw, while the USMNT will try desperately for a 1-0 win — will provide value. The entire soccer-watching world is expecting a rock fight and that will likely show up in the betting market, which will cause bookmakers to put a premium on the under and markets correlated to it.

So instead of flocking towards that narrative, bettors can find value zagging the other direction and backing the USMNT to win a thriller.

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