Drew Allar is a polarizing draft prospect. Can he take the next step amid Penn State’s big expectations?

It’s been 30 years since a Penn State quarterback was selected in the first round of the NFL draft, let alone inside the top five. Kerry Collins, a Nittany Lions letterman from 1991 to 1994, was drafted fifth overall by the Carolina Panthers in 1995.

In six fewer games than Collins, Drew Allar has surpassed the former NFL quarterback in passing yards (6,302 to 5,304) and touchdowns (53 to 39). Penn State’s offense under Joe Paterno was a sharp contrast to the creativity of this version, with Andy Kotelnicki calling plays, though.

In 1994, Collins and the Nittany Lions finished the regular season 11-0, won the Big Ten in their second year in the conference, and beat Oregon in the Rose Bowl to finish 12-0. They were ranked No. 2 in the final Associated Press poll, just missing out on a national championship. Collins was in his third year as Penn State’s starter.

Sound familiar?

Penn State has high expectations entering the 2025 season as the AP poll’s preseason No. 2. James Franklin is entering his 12th season as head coach there with arguably the best quarterback in his coaching career in Allar. A lot will rest on Allar’s shoulders this season after last year’s run fell short in the College Football Playoff semifinals against Notre Dame. Allar enters his third season as the starting quarterback and recently was named to the watch list for the Davey O’Brien Award, which recognizes the nation’s best college quarterback.

» READ MORE: Penn State has its highest preseason ranking in the James Franklin Era. Here’s how.

Some way-too-early 2026 NFL mock drafts had Allar projected inside the top 10, but one search on social media will show a diversity of opinions on the big-armed quarterback. While some point to Allar’s struggles against top competition as a reason to lower his draft stock, others point to his physical gifts as too enticing to pass up, including ESPN draft analyst and former North Carolina Central quarterback Jordan Reid, who calls Allar “toolsy.”

“As far as the physical gifts that he does have, [Allar] has all the size at 6-foot-5, [235] pounds,” Reid said in a telephone interview. “Has a really strong arm. I love the way they would test those tight windows as well. And I think really him and Andy Kotelnicki, Penn State’s OC, they really started to click really early on in the season. Honestly, you saw that he had a lot of trust in Drew, and he really started to let it go as far as some of the things we didn’t really see early on in his career.

“But I think the big thing for Drew that I think is going to make or break his draft stock, he has to play better in those big games.”

Last season against Ohio State, Oregon, and Notre Dame, which accounted for all three Penn State losses, Allar averaged 169 passing yards and completed 53.6% of his passes with a ratio of three touchdowns to four interceptions.

While the microscope was on Allar in those high- stakes matchups, and rightfully so, there were positives as well. NBC Sports draft analyst Connor Rogers, who cohosts the Pro Football Focus NFL Stock Exchange podcast with Trevor Sikkema, points to Allar’s performance against Southern California in a comeback road win.

» READ MORE: James Franklin embraces Penn State’s high expectations in 2025, but preseason hype ‘means nothing’ without results

“You just watch the USC game in 2024, and that’s someone that has that gamer mentality, plays with a lot of heart,” Rogers told The Inquirer. “No lead is too big. Was confident and kind of had the team rallying, so that game kind of stood out to me in terms of the tangibles. You just look at the player — getting away from just having a prototype build of the position and the arm required for the position — I think he reads the entire field at the college level. And I don’t think a ton of guys do that.”

Allar could have entered the 2025 draft following his late-season surge, but he decided to return to school before Penn State’s CFP run began against SMU. After the Lions’ loss to Ohio State in November, he threw nine touchdowns to two interceptions over his next five games, including three touchdowns in the Big Ten title loss to Oregon. He threw three more touchdowns in Penn State’s CFP quarterfinal win over Boise State, flashing his high-level passing touch and velocity at the Fiesta Bowl.

In the spring, after Penn State hired Jim Knowles away from Ohio State as defensive coordinator, Allar sat down with the coach to dissect what he struggled with against the Buckeyes’ game plan and scouting report. But as Allar reflected on his decision to return for 2025, he pointed to the “unfinished business” he had from last year’s disappointment.

“From what I understand, it was kind of like a wide range I got,” Allar said at Big Ten media days about his draft stock last season. “I had a pretty wide range of being a top-end guy or maybe being like a mid-round guy. So for me, again, it was too scattered to pull that trigger. I felt like there’s a lot of strides I’ve made every year in my development, but there’s definitely areas I wanted to get better at and need to get better at.”

Allar is entering his third season as starter and critics have said that players at his talent level usually have made the NFL jump by this point.

But with the rise of name, image, and likeness deals in college athletics, especially in football, players are choosing to stay in school longer, including Allar. Rogers points to players who have stayed in school longer and translated to the NFL, like Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix Jr., and Bo Nix in recent drafts.

“I like guys that are staying in school now because it’s enabled them to grow at the college level, that when they get to the pros, they just have a different confidence,” Rogers said. “I think when you look at the recency examples, I think that probably turns into more of a positive in terms of teams know what they’re getting, vs. being forced to project more.”

» READ MORE: Drew Allar’s game reaches new heights in leading Penn State to college football’s final four

There are strides, too, that Allar needs to make, including his tendency for “aiming the football rather than just playing within his mechanics,” which Rogers says limited his accuracy in 2024.

Rogers also said Allar hasn’t “played his best football in his biggest games.” And it could be the difference in the senior quarterback being a top-10 pick vs. a fringe first-rounder.

“If you’re talking about the ‘veteran quarterbacks’ in college football right now, typically, I think, across boards, more often than not, you’ll see [LSU’s Garrett] Nussmeier and Allar in the bucket at the top,” Rogers said. “With [Clemson’s Cade] Klubnik, I get more varying opinions on, with [South Carolina’s LaNorris] Sellers, I get more varying opinions on, but I think teams are really big fans of Allar. …

“But at the end of the day, I think that’s where teams project him right now, is that fringe first-round guy that they have really high expectations of this year.”

Added Reid: “A lot of people believe that he has first-round talent, but they just want to see it more against those bigger opponents. … Everybody knows that he can beat up on those lower-quality opponents, but with all the pressure on him and playing some of those big-time opponents, how is he going to play in those games, most notably Oregon, Ohio State? Those are going to be the two games that scouts really have circled with him where he needs to show up and have big games.”