Jeff McLane’s keys to Eagles vs. Lions in Week 11: What you need to know and a prediction

The Eagles host the Detroit Lions in a Week 11 matchup at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday at 8:20 p.m. Here’s what you need to know about the game:

When the Eagles have the ball: After two solid offensive performances against the Vikings and Giants, which suggested the unit was finally on track, the Eagles regressed in Green Bay. The Packers have a young and athletic defense, so that’s important to note. But the offense posted its worst expected points added (EPA) per drive (-0.71) since the playoff loss in Tampa in 2023. The Eagles did enough to win, which Nick Sirianni has done more than any coach in the last five seasons, but mostly behind the strength of Vic Fangio’s defense in this case. With the Lions coming to town, it’s fair to question if offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo’s group can score enough to match an offense with as much or more firepower.

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A.J. Brown certainly wonders if that’s the case. The receiver sounded the alarm once again after he caught just two of three targets for 13 yards in Green Bay. Patullo and quarterback Jalen Hurts need to get Brown more involved for the sake of all involved. They should have opportunities against a Lions secondary that could be without three pieces. Cornerback Terrion Arnold and safety Kerby Joseph are out, and cornerback Amik Robertson is questionable. Starting corner D.J. Reed had his 21-day practice window opened this week, but his availability is uncertain. Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard utilizes man coverage more than most, but he runs plenty of zone and will likely drop his safeties into shells like most defenses have when facing the Eagles.

Patullo is going to want to establish Saquon Barkley and the run game, as usual. Detroit’s run defense is good but not great. Opposing offenses have gained just 94.3 yards per game on the ground, but the Lions rank 24th in the NFL in EPA per rush. Sheppard employs a 4-3 wide-nine front with one-gap penetrating linemen. Off-ball linebackers Jack Campbell and Derrick Barnes are above-average run defenders. The Eagles may want to roll out the same run scheme — pin-and-pull blocking for outside rushes — they utilized to great effect against a similar front against the Giants two games ago.

I can’t believe it’s taken me this long to mention Aidan Hutchinson, because if there’s one guy on the Lions who can wreck the Eagles’ game plan, it’s him. The fourth-year defensive end leads the NFL in pressures, per NextGen Stats, and forced fumbles (four). He has seven sacks. Hutchinson pingpongs to each end, so tackles Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata will take turns blocking him. The Eagles did well to contain Micah Parsons last week. Hutchinson is bigger, but if dealt with, Hurts still has to contend with the blitz. Sheppard sends extra rushers about 30% of the time and has various simulated pressures.

When the Lions have the ball: The Lions lost center Frank Ragnow to retirement and left guard Christian Mahogany to the injured list, but they still have one of the better ground games. It may not be as potent up the middle because of the changes on the offensive line, but containing the speed and power combo of running backs Jahmyr Gibbs (693 yards, 5.4 avg., 8 TDs) and David Montgomery (466 yards, 4.6 avg., 5 TDs) will be the Eagles’ first order of defense. When Detroit has been held under 100 yards rushing this season, they’ve lost all three times. A fair amount of quarterback Jared Goff’s success as a passer comes from play-action set up by early run production.

Gibbs is almost as dangerous as a receiver. Give him an option vs. man coverage and he’ll win more times than not. Opponents have countered with more zone, and Fangio will likely follow suit. He has speedy off-ball linebackers in Zack Baun, Nakobe Dean, and Jihaad Campbell to keep Gibbs in check. But will they? The group has one less weapon to worry about with tight end Sam LaPorta (40 catches for 489 yards) sidelined.

Receivers , (64 catches, 693 yards, 10.8 avg.) and Jameson Williams (27 catches, 474 yards, 17.8 avg.) are additional complementary pieces. St. Brown is skilled at finding soft spots in zone coverage. He lines up in the slot 42% of the time, which means Eagles cornerback Cooper DeJean will face his toughest challenge. Williams may be as fast as anyone in the NFL. It would make sense to match him with cornerback Quinyon Mitchell since the Lions lack a true third receiving threat. But St. Brown bounces outside enough, and Fangio may want to avoid having Adoree’ Jackson run with Williams on deep crossing routes. Lions coach Dan Campbell, who took over play-calling last week, will certainly test safeties Reed Blankenship and Andrew Mukuba over the top.

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The Eagles’ reinforcements on the edge couldn’t have come at a better time. The Lions have one of the better tackle tandems with Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker. Sewell is a road grader on the right side. New outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips will see him plenty and may be best equipped to take on his blocks. The Eagles’ pass rush has improved over the last three games. It’s no coincidence that defensive tackle Jalen Carter seems to be rounding into form. If Fangio can get him matched up one-on-one with left guard Kayode Awosika, a former deep reserve on the Eagles, it could spell trouble for the Lions. Goff’s greatest deficiency is when he’s under pressure — more than most quarterbacks.

Extra point: A month ago, I might have given the Lions the edge based on the Eagles’ struggles in stopping the run. But the return of Dean has buoyed the unit. There have been other contributing factors (see: Carter). The numbers show how the linebacker has upgraded the run defense. In the Eagles’ first six games without Dean, they allowed 4.7 yards a carry. In their last three games since he started getting snaps over Campbell, they’ve allowed just 3.7 yards per rush. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Fangio blitz Dean up the “A” gaps to pressure Detroit’s interior.

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I picked the Packers last week and was wrong (again). I did so thinking the Eagles would split in their next two games. Vegas has the Lions as 2-½-point underdogs, which seems right. But I think they may be Sirianni’s stiffest test yet based on how the two teams stack up. That being said, the Lions are pretty banged up. Not only have three starters already been ruled out, but three more, including Sewell and Taylor, were listed as questionable. The Eagles aren’t 100% healthy. Four-fifths of their O-line was on the injury report. But they won’t be without a single starter. I’m sticking with the Birds.

Prediction: Eagles, 31-30.