The Republican Party’s ‘un-divorce’ with Donald Trump

In a 2014 Psychology Today column, journalist Rita Watson wrote of a growing phenomenon of “un-divorced” couples, “husbands and wives who stay married, but live apart or drift into extramarital relationships.” In 2010, an article in the New York Times described how “even long-estranged couples are irrefutably bound by contractual links on issues like taxes, pensions, Social Security and health care.”

“Un-divorced” sums up the political purgatory many Republican voters find themselves in with Donald Trump. Yes, a recent compilation of national polls on the Republican primary published by FiveThirtyEight shows that even after GOP donor darling Ron DeSantis announced he’s running for president, Republican primary voters still prefer Trump. But just because they’re not ready to abandon the former president doesn’t mean this is a happily-ever-after story that will carry Trump through the 2024 primary.

You don’t need national polling to know that Republican voters care about the economy more than any other issue. In fairness, a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in January showed more than 75% of all Americans listed the economy as their top concern. But leading up to the 2022 November elections, most Democratic voters listed abortion (75%) as a higher priority than the economy (65%), while 92% of Republicans put the economy above all else.

To be sure, some Republicans get hot and bothered about social issues. And school choice is a defining (and winning) issue for the party. But when polls say Republicans are focused on the economy as a top voting issue, here’s what they mean: A typical GOP voter wakes up every morning trying to figure out how to fill the gas tank to get to a job that pays a wage that buys less than it used to. Most of what they see on the news makes them livid — but poor economic conditions impede their ability to live the lives they want to live. They don’t want government subsidies. They want to earn their success. Many feel the answer to these economic woes lies in getting rid of President Joe Biden.

In dozens of private conversations I’ve had with Republican voters in the course of my public policy work, one of the main recurring sentiments expressed about President Trump was this: “I don’t want Trump. I also don’t want $5 a gallon gas, record high inflation, or an ever-downward spiral on my retirement.” Many Republicans endlessly fret that Trump is the only guy who can beat Biden — so, for now, they stick with him. This is the right’s political “un-divorce.”

Yes, there are still die-hard MAGA voters who would be loyal to Donald Trump even if he shot puppies on the White House lawn. But those voters are overestimated by both Biden and the media. In a Grinnell College poll last fall, only 17% of voters identified as MAGA.

In Pennsylvania, Republican voters proved during the May primary that they will take a better Trump alternative, even by proxy. No, the former president wasn’t running, but “Trumpy” candidates (read: candidates that aligned themselves publicly with President Trump) did and lost.

In the Republican primary for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, respected Montgomery County Common Pleas Judge Carolyn Carluccio defeated Commonwealth Court Judge Patricia McCullough. McCullough was a hard-core Trumper who bragged that she was “the only judge in the entire country to enter an order to halt the certification of the 2020 presidential election results.”

In Washington County near Pittsburgh — once considered a MAGA bastion — Trump-aligned GOP county commissioner candidates lost their primaries to, well, more basic conservative Republicans.

Pennsylvania could also be ushering in a Trump breakup faster than other states. Before even announcing his presidential bid, DeSantis led Trump in some Pennsylvania polls by 5 points. November 2024 is 18 months away, and polls will shift. In May 2007, then-candidate Barack Obama was barely beating undeclared candidate Al Gore — and he (Obama) was woefully behind front-runner Hillary Clinton.

As a candidate, President Obama inspired people. He had an uplifting vision for the country. A candidate who brings both inspiration and optimism still matters.

Another factor for Republicans to consider: Biden is vulnerable. Watching an American president physically falter is difficult to witness. It also magnifies his biggest political flaw: Biden has failed to cast a vision for how the Democrats’ agenda — or lack thereof — can make people’s lives better.

Biden does not represent what is best and brightest about our country. He does not inspire hope. You don’t need Donald Trump to defeat him. A candidate for president who serves the ideals of America rather than themselves — or factions within a political party — could win over more than just Republicans.

DeSantis took on his own party when he sent the Florida state budget back to Republicans and told them they did a poor job — and insisted they slash it to help taxpayers. Nikki Haley signed a bill that forever removed the Confederate flag from the South Carolina Capitol building. Mike Pence courageously protected and defended the U.S. Constitution on Jan. 6, 2021, as vice president — despite the very clear risks to his personal safety and political aspirations. And U.S. Sen. Tim Scott rose from poverty to become a U.S. presidential candidate; he also daily defies the vile identity politics of the left that demean and degrade Black Americans who dare to join the party of Lincoln.

Each has shown a type of leadership that could restore voters’ battered confidence in American leadership. And each could be the kind of exciting new political partner that might motivate Republicans to finally sign the papers on their long, drawn-out Trump divorce.