Lawmakers should err on the side of a rescue package that is bigger than may ultimately be needed. as this may be the only window they will have to pass legislation to support the economy again until after the presidential inauguration in January. That’s a very long time while engulfed in a crisis.
Congress needs to help state and local governments that are hemorrhaging red ink and provide more support to businesses and to unemployed and financially stressed people. Most importantly, Congress needs to act before its August recess.
With no engine of growth on the other side of the business reopenings, the responsibility to ensure the economy avoids a double-dip recession later this year rests on the Trump administration and Congress.
A necessary condition is a vaccine, which seems on track for mid next year, experts say. Until then, any economic recovery will remain a slog, characterized by halting growth and high single-digit unemployment. And even then, the economy won’t fully recover until mid-decade.
The important thing isn’t whether the president is popular or not, but whether the candidate's popularity is rising or falling when people go to the polls. Pennsylvania will be the most critically important in determining our next president. And results will boil down to turnout in a few counties.