Can Villanova sweeten March Madness for fans betting on success?
Sorry, Wildcats fans, Ed thinks the game against Ohio State is the end of the NCAA tournament line for Villanova.
Among Sunday’s highlights are Villanova trying to get back to the Sweet 16, a coaching matchup that has CBS salivating and the final spot for the East Regional semifinals being decided.
Here’s a look at the final eight games of the weekend, with a couple of picks included just for giggles.
Sunday
12:10 p.m./CBS - Houston (-4.5) vs. Illinois (133.5): Houston has won 10 of its last 11, going 9-2 against the spread during the run. Explains why this is a moderately large line for a game between 4-5 seeds. And the Cougars are the No. 5. What’s more impressive is that Houston replaced all five starters from last year’s Final Four team. Last five against the spread: Houston 4-1, Illinois 1-4. Pick: Houston laying 4.5.
2:40 p.m./CBS - Villanova (-5.5) vs. Ohio St. (132.5): Picked Ohio State to win this game a few days ago, so no sense going back now. DraftKings’ money lines are Villanova -210, Ohio State +175, which is a rip-off for those who grew up with what’s called 10- and 20-cent lines. If Villanova is -210, Ohio State should be +190. Shopped around a little and there are some +180 lines out there. Sigh. All that said, watch Villanova win by 20. Last five ATS: Villanova 3-2, Ohio St. 2-3. Pick: Ohio State to win.
5:15 p.m./CBS - Duke (-6.5) vs. Michigan St. (144.5): “I like the game,” Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said ahead of his 16th and final meeting with Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski, “I just don’t like the record in [this] matchup over the years.” Izzo’s Spartans are 3-12 against Duke. One more remarkable stat: Izzo is 14-3 in the second round, and 23-6 in the second game of an NCAA Tournament weekend. Five of those six losses have come against No. 1 seeds and/or eventual national champions. Last five ATS: Duke 0-5, Michigan St. 5-0.
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6:10 p.m./TNT - Wisconsin (-3.5) vs. Iowa St. (124.5): Still can’t get over that Iowa State was 2-22 last year. Yeah, there were a ton of mitigating factors, but to go from two wins one year to the brink of the Sweet 16 is remarkable. This feels like it could be a rock fight, so stay away from the over. Last five ATS: Wisconsin 2-3, Iowa St. 3-2.
7:10 p.m./TBS - Texas Tech (-7.5) vs. Notre Dame (132.5): A little more than two weeks ago, Texas Tech held Iowa State to 41 points. On Friday, they held Montana State to 25 in the first half in what deteriorated into 97-62 rout. “It felt like they were guarding me,” Montana State coach Danny Sprinkle said. “I couldn’t see even see my play card.” Friday’s win over Alabama (78-64) snapped a 9-game over streak for Notre Dame. The line closed at 153.5. Sunday’s line against Iowa State is 21 points lower. Wow. Last five ATS: Texas Tech 2-3, Notre Dame 3-2.
7:45 p.m./truTV - Auburn (-7.5) vs. Miami (143.5): Walker Kessler is second in the nation in blocked shots and was the first Auburn player ever named SEC defensive player of the year. He nearly had a triple-double on Friday (13 points, 10 rebounds, 9 blocks in 31 minutes). Last five ATS: Auburn 2-3, Miami 4-1. Pick: Auburn to cover.
8:40 p.m./TNT - Purdue (-3.5) vs. Texas (133.5): Purdue entered the weekend 12th in the nation at 79.7 points per game. DraftKings had an early line on their team total for Sunday’s game at 68.5. Winner of this game gets the last ticket to Philadelphia for next week’s Sweet 16. Last five ATS: Purdue 1-4, Texas 1-4. Pick: Purdue over 68.5 points.
9:40 p.m./TBS - Arizona (-9.5) vs. TCU (142.5): It’s not often a Tournament team has been underdogs in nine consecutive games, like TCU has been. The Horned Frogs are 5-2-1 against the number in the previous eight. Fun fact: TCU forward Chuck O’Bannon’s uncle Ed was a driving force behind the Name, Image and Likeness movement. Uncle Ed and Chuck’s dad Charles were stars of UCLA’s 1995 national championship team. Last five ATS: Arizona 3-2, TCU 3-2.
Friday’s picks
Went 4-2. Losers were USC (-1.5) and UAB (+8.5). Winners were Ohio State (pick’em), Notre Dame (+4), Colgate (+8.5) and under Illinois-Chattanooga (135.5). First-round record: 7-4.
Villanova’s odds
The Wildcats odds at FanDuel entering Saturday’s games to win the South Region were +450. Arizona is favored at +145. Villanova is +144 to make the Elite 8, -196 not to. They were +2000 to win the national title. Gonzaga (+250), Arizona (+600) and Kansas (+900) were the top three favorites.
And finally
Virginia is playing North Texas in an NIT game on Sunday at 6 p.m. The over/under at PointsBet is 110.5. Not sure I’ve seen a total that low.