Jeff McLane’s keys to Eagles vs. Bears in Week 13: What you need to know and a prediction

The Eagles host the Chicago Bears in a Week 13 matchup at Lincoln Financial Field on Friday at 3 p.m. Here’s what you need to know about the game:

When the Eagles have the ball: If the rushing offense can’t get going against this Bears defense, it may never. I wrote the same ahead of the Cowboys game, and Saquon Barkley and Co. ended up doing very little on the ground. But Dallas leaned into its five-man front — to the Eagles’ surprise — and that’s been a scheme they’ve struggled with most of the season. The Bears don’t stray much from their four-man front in run situations, although they will bring a linebacker down to match heavy personnel. Could defensive coordinator Dennis Allen throw another curveball at the Eagles? I guess it’s possible. But Chicago’s personnel is suited to a 4-3 front and it stays in nickel personnel (72%) more than most defenses.

The Bears’ run defense has allowed 5.2 yards per carry, ranks 25th in expected points added (EPA) per rush, and 26th in rush success rate. They’ve been shorthanded at off-ball linebacker with Tremaine Edmunds placed on injured reserve last week and T.J. Edwards out after hand surgery. The Eagles should run at linebacker Noah Sewell (elbow) if he’s healthy — he’s missed eight tackle attempts vs. the run. They might want to dip further into the quarterback-run game. Jalen Hurts has been noticeably silent in that regard. He’s averaging 2.4 fewer carries per game than he did in his previous four seasons. Another solution could be a little more of Tank Bigsby (9.1-yard average per carry) at the expense of the dinged-up Barkley (groin).

The Bears aren’t much better in pass defense, at least efficiency-wise. But they force turnovers at a high rate — an NFL-best 20.9% — with safety Kevin Byard and cornerback Nahshon Wright tied atop the league with five interceptions apiece. Chicago added another ballhawk to the mix last month — former Eagles safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson — who’s back at his original slot cornerback spot. Allen blitzes at a relatively high rate (27.5%) and no offense has faced more blitzes than the Eagles (34%). Gardner-Johnson has three sacks already in blitzes from the slot. Montez Sweat is the Bears’ best rusher, and leads the team with 7½ sacks and 30 pressures. Eagles right tackle Fred Johnson will start in place of Lane Johnson for a second straight game and will see a lot of Sweat.

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Allen will mix up his zones, with Cover 3 his most predominant in single-high safety looks and Cover 2 in split-safety looks. Hurts has thrown only one pick all season. DeVonta Smith (shoulder/chest) should play, but he won’t be at full strength. That could be additional reason to feature tight end Dallas Goedert in the middle of the field. The Bears have allowed 6.5 catches per game to tight ends. Goedert has been the Eagles’ best red zone threat this season (seven touchdowns), and Gardner-Johnson has historically been undisciplined inside the 20.

When the Bears have the ball: Ben Johnson is one of more innovative offensive minds in the NFL. The former Lions offensive coordinator has elevated Caleb Williams’ game, although the second-year quarterback has left meat on the bone by not playing within structure. He makes plays out of the pocket and on scrambles. But he holds the ball longer than any other quarterback at 3.23 seconds and has faced a decent amount of pressure (32%). To his credit, Williams has been sacked only 4.2% of the time, partly because he’s good at wriggling out of would-be tackles.

Williams has adapted to being more under center, which has added play-action to his tool belt. He ranks in the middle of the pack in play-action efficiency, but he also has avoided turnovers and ranks sixth in interception percentage (1.1). Rome Odunze is Williams’ favorite deep target. The second-year receiver has caught 8 of 23 targets of 20-plus yards for 218 yards and two touchdowns. The Eagles dodged some bullets in the secondary with safety Reed Blankenship (thigh) and cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (head injury) expected to be ready. But Drew Mukuba (ankle) was placed on injured reserve and Sydney Brown is slated to fill the void. Dallas went at Brown on Sunday and the Bears are likely to follow suit.

» READ MORE: Vic Fangio expects to have safety Reed Blankenship available on Friday vs. the Bears

The Eagles’ back seven has mostly done a solid job of tackling after the catch, but Williams throws his receivers into space as well as any quarterback. He averages 5.98 yards after the catch on his throws. The Bears have a potent ground game — sixth in EPA per rush — with good blocking up the middle behind center Drew Dalman and left guard Joe Thuney. Running backs D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai average 4.6 and 4.7 yards a carry, respectively. Neither is especially adept in blitz pickup. I’d expect Eagles linebacker Nakobe Dean to test both.

In terms of the Eagles’ pass rush, the Bears may need to help left tackle Theo Benedet vs. edge rushers Jalyx Hunt and Nolan Smith. Forced into the lineup two months ago, Benedet has allowed a team-high 20 pressures. Jaelan Phillips has a tougher matchup on the other side against right tackle Darnell Wright.

Extra point: The Bears stopped a Steelers Tush Push attempt last week. They didn’t appear to do anything exotic. But Pittsburgh pulled off a fake the next time it ran the play, with former Eagle Kenny Gainwell scoring a touchdown after a 54-yard run. Chicago later allowed two conversions on third-and-1 off more traditional quarterback sneaks. Center Cam Jurgens is clearly less than 100%, but the Eagles are unlikely to ditch their version of the Tush Push.

After losing their first two games, the Bears have won eight of nine. They have one victory against a team with a winning record — beating the 6-5 Steelers on Sunday, 31-28. The Eagles, obviously, shouldn’t sleep on Chicago. They’ve beaten some of the best teams in the league, but there could be a hangover after getting banged up in Texas. It may be too early to look ahead to playoff seeding, but a loss to the 8-3 Bears would drop the Eagles into third place in the conference.

I think the Eagles match up well against the Bears. I like Vic Fangio vs. most young quarterbacks, but Ben Johnson will offer a challenge. As far as the offense goes, I think that as long as the Eagles don’t turn the ball over, they should put up points. Chicago’s defense lives off the turnover, but the Birds are still among the best at protecting the ball, despite last week’s two giveaways. For the first time in weeks, I feel relatively confident about my pick. But we know how that usually pans out.

Prediction: Eagles, 30-20.