Eagles Week 17 film preview: What to look for against the Buffalo Bills

Sunday’s game between the Eagles and Buffalo Bills, two premier teams in their respective conferences, could ultimately serve as a Super Bowl preview and a much-needed measuring stick before both teams prepare for the playoffs.

Both the Eagles and Bills are coming off wins over teams without playoff aspirations, and both are on the upswing after midseason lulls. Playoff seeding will be on the line as the Eagles chase the No. 3 seed and the Bills are behind the Patriots in the AFC East race.

From Buffalo’s two-headed rushing attack of Josh Allen and James Cook to a shaky run defense, here is what the film says about Sunday’s Week 17 matchup (4:25 p.m., Fox 29).

Cook has been lethal all season, but particularly between the tackles. He leads the NFL in rushing with 1,532 yards, with more than half coming between the tackles (853 yards), according to Next Gen Stats.

The Bills do their most damage in the run game from under center. Over 1,300 of Cook’s 1,532 rushing yards have come from under center, and the Eagles allow the fifth-most rushing yards (73 yards) per game from those alignments. The Birds, though, have a minus-0.11 expected points added against under-center runs, which ranks ninth in the NFL.

Buffalo has a diverse run game, but Cook is particularly dominant on counter runs that pull fullback Reggie Gilliam and tight end Jackson Hawes across the formation. Cook scored a 64-yard touchdown against Carolina on a counter run, and scored from 45 and 44 yards out against the Texans and Browns, respectively.

In addition to counter runs, Cook also thrives finding cutback lanes on zone runs, making defenses pay if they overpursue the running back on the backside. His vision and acceleration in the hole allow him to weave through defenses. Cook has recorded 1,034 of his 1,532 yards after contact.

Buffalo also likes to get Cook on the perimeter on toss plays and its offensive line does a nice job of paving lanes for him to create explosive runs.

If Cook has one weakness, it’s fumbling the ball. He has coughed it up six times, the second-most in the NFL, but has just lost three. His three fumbles lost this season are tied for the most among qualified running backs, according to Next Gen Stats.

Allen, meanwhile, leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards (552) and rushing touchdowns (12). He is particularly dangerous when he can escape the pocket on throwing downs. Of Allen’s 16 runs that have gone for 10 or more yards, five have come from the quarterback scrambling for third-down conversions, according to Next Gen Stats, and he has converted seven third-downs by scrambling.

The Bills quarterback has became the go-to short yardage player, both on quarterback sneaks and designed runs. If it is third-and-short, more than a yard, the Bills will utilize Allen on zone read runs or motion into an empty formation and follow a pulling linemen on a downhill quarterback run.

The same can be said about utilizing Allen’s legs in the red zone. Allen will carry the ball on similar designed quarterback runs, like a draw, counter, and power scheme runs. Even the threat of Allen running can draw extra defenders into the box inside the red zone, allowing space for Buffalo’s receivers to make plays.

While Buffalo’s rushing offense is elite, the Bills defense is allowing the third most rushing yards per game this season (144.3 yards) and gives up the most yards per rush after contact in the NFL (4.1 yards), according to Next Gen Stats. They have allowed 63 runs of 10 or more yards, and nearly 60% of their opponents’ rushing production has come outside of the tackles. The Bills have also allowed 5.4 yards per rush per play, second-most in the NFL.

Early-down runs have been a killer for Buffalo, which is allowing the fourth most rushing yards on first down — 34 of the 63 runs that have gone for 10 or more yards have come on that down, according to Next Gen Stats.

In addition to the run-game struggles, Buffalo’s defense allows the most rushing yards from pistol formation runs (36.5 yards per game), according to Next Gen Stats, and a large chunk of those yards have come on outside zone and counter scheme runs.

The Eagles went away from pistol formation runs after their first meeting with the Giants earlier this season, and have used it sparingly since the bye week. The only pistol run during their Week 16 win over the Commanders resulted in a 12-yard gain by Tank Bigsby to close out the game, and the Birds used the formation five times against the Raiders, four of them coming with the game already decided in the fourth quarter of their shutout win.

Only five times this season have the Eagles posted a positive rushing EPA. Three of them came in the first three weeks, and the other two were Week 8 against the Giants and Week 16 against the Commanders, according to Next Gen Stats. But Saquon Barkley has rushed for 100 yards or more in two of his past three games, with one trend starting to materialize.

Barkley has had four games with positive EPA on under-center runs: the Chiefs in Week 3, the Giants in Week 8, the Chargers in Week 14, and the Commanders last week. Yards after contact accounted for 117 of Barkley’s 132 yards, and the same trend carried over from the Raiders game: 75 of his 78 rushing yards were after contact vs. Las Vegas.

The Eagles are finding a formula in the run game and need to keep riding it against a struggling Buffalo defense.

The passing game for Buffalo has been inconsistent at times, but one constant has been wideout Khalil Shakir, who leads the team in receptions (66) and yards (684).

As an extension of their run game and to take advantage of his elusiveness, the Bills get the ball into Shakir’s hands quickly on swing routes and screen passes. It forces defensive backs to come up and make tackles, while also challenging off coverage looks.

Of Shakir’s 684 receiving yards, 506 have come after the catch, according to Next Gen Stats. The bread and butter play for Buffalo’s passing game is mesh, which usually has one or two players running shallow crossing routes.

Shakir is often asked to run those routes in the offense, especially on third-and-medium distances. He’s also effective in making the first defender miss and forces missed tackles similar to a running back in space.

Cooper DeJean and Adoree’ Jackson will likely be tested in those situations to get Shakir on the ground. If Shakir is forcing missed tackles and turning 5-yard gains into 10 yards or more, it could be a long day for the Eagles’ secondary.