Jeff McLane’s keys to Eagles vs. Bills in Week 17: What you need to know and a prediction

The Eagles travel to face the Buffalo Bills in a Week 17 matchup at Highmark Stadium on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. Here’s what you need to know about the game:

When the Eagles have the ball: The Eagles have a chance to build off their recent success on the ground by facing another poor run defense. The Bills are second-to-last in the NFL in yards allowed (5.4) and expected points added per rush (0.08). They’ve allowed 63 runs of 10-plus yards, which is second worst to only the Giants. Buffalo coach Sean McDermott doesn’t exactly stack boxes at a high rate (20.7%), but he’ll stay in his base 4-3 front vs. heavy personnel. The bigger issue has been how his defenders have — or haven’t — handled run fits. There have been a lot of big holes for running backs to run through. Tackling also has been a problem. The Bills are last in the league in rushing yards allowed after contact (4.1).

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Say what you will about the last two opponents, but the Eagles have improved in the run game. “Turned the corner” would be too strong a phrase, but some wrinkles have contributed to the Eagles averaging 174.7 rushing yards in the last three games. Buffalo is depleted in the interior. Defensive tackles Ed Oliver, Daquon Jones, and Jordan Phillips will be out. I think Saquon Barkley could also do some damage if he gets to the second level. The Bills have corners wjp don’t tackle well in space, and they’ll also be without veteran safety Jordan Poyer. The Eagles didn’t dial up as many runs from under center last week vs. the Commanders as they did the week before. I could see Nick Sirianni and Kevin Patullo using Buffalo’s weak defense as a chance to reestablish that facet of their offense.

The Bills have gotten behind in games because of their inability to stop the run. They’ve allowed an average of 13.9 points in the first half, but have been better after the break (9.1). Why the disparity? It could be McDermott’s ability to make adjustments, or the Bills have benefited from their offense getting ahead, which has forced quarterbacks to throw. Buffalo has a good pass defense. It has allowed just 52.8% of passes to be completed. A lot of the Bills’ success can be traced to their defensive ends getting pressure. Greg Rousseau (14.3%) and Joey Bosa (13.8%) have above-average rates on their rushes. Right tackle Fred Johnson, who is starting again for the injured Lane Johnson (foot), will have a stiff test in Bosa. Rousseau will bounce back and forth to either side.

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McDermott doesn’t blitz — a 23rd-in-the-league 23.7% rate this season — as much as he once did. He’ll send any of his linebackers, but Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are most effective in getting pressure. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should have opportunities on the outside, though. Cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Christian Benford are beatable, especially in man coverage. McDermott’s zone-man split is about 70-30. His safeties do a good job of rotating late. Cole Bishop is solid, but Poyer’s replacement — whether it’s rookie Jordan Hancock or veteran Darnell Savage — could be exploited.

When the Bills have the ball: Josh Allen makes the Bills offense go, but I’m going to focus first on running back James Cook. He’s been arguably the best running back in the league this season. He leads the NFL with 1,532 rushing yards and averages 5.3 yards a carry. He’s not especially big at 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, but he’s fast and runs hard. Cook has great vision and can slip through creases. If he has a kryptonite this season, it’s ball security — he has lost three of six fumbles. Cook runs behind a reliable, if not spectacular, offensive line led by left tackle Dion Dawkins. The unit’s relative good health has contributed to its chemistry. The Bills also have good blocking tight ends, although Dalton Kincaid (knee) and Dawson Knox (knee) are questionable.

Allen, of course, is almost as dangerous on the ground. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady will dial up designed runs, but Allen scrambles as well as any quarterback. He often knows when running is applicable and can be hard to bring down. A foot injury limited him early in the week, but he’s cleared to go. The Eagles have to stay disciplined in their rushes. I’d imagine defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will devote a linebacker to spying Allen on obvious passing downs, especially against empty sets. The Bills have effectively used their version of the Tush Push with the 6-5, 237-pound quarterback converting 13 of 15 rushing attempts on third- or fourth-and-1.

Allen holds the ball longer than most — a sixth-longest 2.93 seconds — because he can make big plays out of structure. He doesn’t get sacked at a high rate (8.12% of attempts), but he can take big losses or turn the ball over when playing the hero. Allen doesn’t have a group of receivers that gets much separation downfield. He has cut down on interceptions by not forcing throws into tight windows — 11.3% of the time, which is 31st among qualifying quarterbacks — vs. last season (16.8%). Brady has helped by utilizing the under-center run game to set up play action passes. He’ll also employ misdirection and motion at the snap.

The Bills don’t often keep their tight ends or backs in to help with the pass rush. They want to give Allen underneath options to offset what he lacks on the outside. Fangio blitzes at a low rate (19.4%), so Brady probably won’t alter the formula. Receiver Khalil Shakir leads the offense with 66 catches. Most of his yards (515 of his 684) come after contact off short passes. The Eagles will need to be stout in tackling after the catch. Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell could be neutralized simply by Allen staying away from him.

Extra point: The weather could change, but it looks like rain will be a factor late Sunday afternoon. Both teams have kicker woes. Jake Elliott’s struggles over the past five games have been documented. The Eagles are sticking with their guy — for now. The Bills will be without 41-year-old Matt Prater (quad) for a second straight game. His replacement, Michael Badgley, missed an extra point and the landing zone on a kickoff last week. Buffalo tried out some kickers as a result, but Badgley will get another chance.

The Eagles don’t have as much on the line as the Bills. I don’t think that should matter much. Sirianni’s squad wants to measure itself against one of the best. Two years ago, they outlasted Buffalo, despite an amazing performance by Allen. Elliott’s 59-yard field goal sent the game to overtime and Jalen Hurts walked it off. I just realized I didn’t mention the Eagles quarterback above. He has settled down since the Chargers debacle. I think he’ll hit some shots downfield as long as the offense takes advantage on the ground. The Eagles’ defense has been susceptible at times vs. the run, but it has tightened the hatches since the Bears game. Jalen Carter (shoulders) is back, although the front more than managed in his absence.

I don’t feel great about my pick. My gut says the opposite. But it’s hard to pick against Allen in the penultimate game at the Bills’ longtime home, Highmark Stadium.

Prediction: Bills, 31-27