Eagles vs. Bills in Week 17: These are the numbers that matter

The Eagles travel to Western New York to face the Buffalo Bills in one of the marquee matchups of the Week 17 NFL slate.

A Super Bowl preview? That seemed far-fetched a few weeks ago, but both teams are playing better football. The Bills (11-4) have won four consecutive games, and the Eagles (10-5) snapped a three-game skid with consecutive wins over the Raiders and Commanders.

A big step up in competition awaits the Birds at Highmark Stadium.

Here’s a look at some numbers and trends that could factor into the result on Sunday (4:25 p.m., Fox 29).

Jordan Mailata described Saquon Barkley’s 12-yard touchdown Saturday as an “angry run.” It was one of Barkley’s highlights from a 2025 season that has not been easy. But Barkley broke out Saturday for 132 yards on 21 rushing attempts.

Barkley broke six tackles and accumulated 63 yards after missed tackles, a season high, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Barkley was at his best running to the left side with Mailata leading the way. According to Next Gen, Barkley picked up a season-high 101 yards (7.8 yards per carry) and a touchdown on 13 carries to the left side of the formation.

That makes sense. The left side of the offensive line features Mailata and Landon Dickerson, while the right side features backup tackle Fred Johnson and Tyler Steen, who has not had a great run-blocking season. Lane Johnson, however, could make his return at right tackle this week.

Barkley’s breakout game and his breaking free of tacklers came at a great time, because the Bills allow an NFL-high 4.1 yards after contact per carry. The next-closest team, Atlanta, is at 3.7.

Buffalo is on the lower end of the scale at a 20.7% usage rate of stacked boxes. Expect the Bills to raise that rate on Sunday in an effort to stop the Eagles’ running game.

» READ MORE: What we know (and don’t) about the Eagles entering Week 17 vs. the Bills

For as much criticism as the Eagles’ offensive line has gotten for not making enough holes for Barkley, the unit has protected Jalen Hurts pretty well, especially in recent weeks.

On Saturday, Hurts was pressured on just four of his 37 drop backs, according to Next Gen, and the 10.8% pressure rate represented the lowest of Hurts’ career. The consistently clean pocket probably made it even more frustrating for the Eagles that they didn’t pull away on the scoreboard until late in the game.

The Bills have a dangerous set of pass rushers, headlined by Greg Rousseau, who leads Buffalo with 48 pressures and 6½ sacks. He dominated during Buffalo’s win over Cleveland to the tune of nine pressures and 2½ sacks on 28 pass rushes. But a lot of his success came against Cam Robinson, who is a weaker left tackle.

Mailata has a tough matchup, but it’s winnable.

The Bills aren’t world-beaters getting after quarterbacks. They’re 12th in the NFL with a pressure rate of 35.3%.

Before Marcus Mariota left the game with an injury, the Eagles, who entered Week 16 allowing the second-highest rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, did a wonderful job containing him. The Commanders’ backup quarterback rushed just one time for a loss of 1 yard before exiting the game after Washington’s first drive of the second half.

Josh Allen, however, will provide another test to see if the Eagles have solved their issues with opposing quarterbacks hurting them on the ground with scrambles and designed runs.

The Eagles have advantages with their defensive backs vs. Buffalo’s receivers. They have winnable matchups along the defensive front. But Allen’s ability to freelance and use his legs to extend plays is an unpredictable part of Sunday’s game.

During Buffalo’s four-game winning streak, Allen is averaging 45.25 rushing yards and has two rushing scores. The Eagles will need to plan accordingly.

» READ MORE: To play or not to play: Eagles face looming rest decisions; no competition coming for Jake Elliott

Here comes the NFL’s leading rusher, James Cook, who has run for 1,532 yards through 15 games this season, the only player in the NFL averaging more than 100 yards per contest.

Getting to Cook early has to be a key for the Eagles. Entering last week, Cook had generated the fourth-best yards before contact on a per-carry basis in the NFL, according to Next Gen, and ranked 13th in yards per carry after contact.

The Eagles have been up and down against the run, but if Jalen Carter returns, they should have the power in the interior to slow Cook down.

The Bills love running him on the inside, and do so at a rate of 58.2%. It will be extra important for the Eagles’ outside linebackers and rushers to set the edge and not let Cook get loose, too.

The Eagles’ chances of getting the No. 2 seed in the NFC — according to the thousands of simulations FTN Fantasy runs — actually increased overnight. That’s probably because of San Francisco’s convincing win and the likelihood that the 49ers beat the Bears has increased.

The Eagles are now at 11.1% to get the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The simplest path to a guaranteed second home game in the playoffs would be for the Eagles to win out and the Bears to lose out. After the 49ers, Chicago plays Detroit.

Crazier things have happened.