Jeff McLane’s keys to Eagles vs. Commanders in Week 16: What you need to know and a prediction
The Commanders defense is not strong, which could lead to another 30-plus-point effort from the Birds.
The Eagles travel to face the Washington Commanders in a Week 16 matchup at Northwest Stadium on Saturday at 5 p.m. Here’s what you need to know about the game:
When the Eagles have the ball: I feel like I keep referring to various Eagles opponents as having one of the worst defenses in the NFL, but that label once again applies this week. The Commanders have been poor for most of their now-lost season. Coach Dan Quinn took over play calling last month and there’s been marginal improvement, but this is an old and battered unit that lacks elite talent at almost every position. The Eagles should have the chance to build some offensive momentum and do so against a scheme that has similarities to last week’s opponent, the Raiders. Quinn has evolved some since working under Las Vegas coach Pete Carroll in Seattle, but he won’t sacrifice numbers in coverage, even if his defense has struggled to stop the run.
The Eagles bullied the Commanders on the ground last season, rushing for 668 yards and 12 touchdowns in their three meetings. Washington’s front office addressed their deficiencies up the middle, but the initial criticism directed at signing free agent Javon Kinlaw has proven to be warranted. The defensive tackle hasn’t done much to improve a run defense that’s allowing 4.7 yards per carry and ranks 26th in the league in expected points added (EPA) per rush. The Eagles clearly should lean into the run game, especially more from under center to further establish an identity that the offense has been lacking for most of the season. That might mean more two- and three-tight end sets, and more of the overwhelmed Grant Calcaterra. But it would force Quinn into more base personnel — something he doesn’t want. Also, an uptick in snaps for blocking stud Cameron Latu (stinger) would be a net positive, assuming he’s active.
The Eagles didn’t throw much from under center vs. the Raiders. But when Jalen Hurts did, he was effective, completing all four passes for 66 yards. The offense has been at its best when the play-action game has been featured. Coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo need to increase its usage because Hurts can’t operate consistently in the straight drop-back world. The Commanders are actually worse vs. the pass than the run, at least statistically. They rank last in EPA/per drop-back and 29th in success rate. Injuries haven’t helped. Three of Washington’s edge rushers (Dorance Armstrong, Deatrich Wise, and Javontae Jean-Baptiste) and two of its cornerbacks (Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos) are on injured reserve.
The Commanders’ two best defenders might be their two oldest players: edge rusher Von Miller and linebacker Bobby Wagner. Miller still lines up predominantly over the right tackle, but he won’t see longtime foe Lane Johnson. Fred Johnson gets his fifth straight start as the Eagles slow play the other Johnson’s return until likely the playoffs. Wagner may be Washington’s only above-average run defender. But the future Hall of Famer has clearly lost a step and is exploitable in coverage. Linebacker Frankie Luvu is just as susceptible through the air. He’s allowed 34 catches on 36 targets for 294 yards and four touchdowns. Luvu, who knocked Hurts out of last year’s meeting in Landover, Md., also has a 19.3% missed tackle rate, per Pro Football Focus. It could be another red letter day for Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert.
When the Commanders have the ball: Washington has been more competent on offense than on defense, even without quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was officially shut down for the season. Replacement Marcus Mariota may be only 2-5 as a starter with wins over the lowly Raiders and Giants, but he’s more dangerous than the backup the Eagles faced last week, Kenny Pickett. Mariota’s legs present a challenge to a defense that hasn’t handled the quarterback run game that well. He’s rushed 49 times for 298 yards, with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury dialing up long gains on designed runs. Mariota can scramble, too, so the Eagles will need to contain their rush and spy him at times.
The Commanders don’t go three and out much, partly because they have an efficient ground attack. Mariota helps open lanes for a triumvirate of running backs — Jacory Croskey-Merritt (4.5 yards per carry), Chris Rodriguez, Jr. (4.6), and Jeremy McNichols (5.3) — who are better than the league average on their rushes. Vic Fangio’s defense has been better against the run since the Bears disaster, despite having the highest light box rate (60.4) in the NFL, per NextGen Stats. He may need to employ his base five-man front more than normal vs. Washington’s heavy sets. But tight end Zach Ertz’s season-ending knee injury might decrease the Commanders’ 12 and 13 personnel usage.
Ertz (50 catches for 504 yards and four touchdowns) was having another solid season. His absence creates a void over the middle. The Commanders still have two receivers — the versatile Deebo Samuel and the always-dangerous Terry McLaurin — who will command attention. Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell has been lining up more on the boundary (or short) side of the field, but it may make sense to have him trail McLaurin. If you think the Eagles offense doesn’t utilize under-center enough, just look at the Commanders. They do it less than anyone in the league (8%) and barely throw off it (14%). Kingsbury does use a lot of play action from the pistol, though.
And that’s typically when Mariota takes his shots downfield. He airs it out as much as any quarterback (10.2 yards per attempt), but ranks only 28th in 20-plus yard success rate. He might not have as much time in the pocket with left tackle Laremy Tunsil, Washington’s best offensive lineman, out for Saturday. Brandon Coleman will step back into the position he lost when Tunsil was acquired last offseason.
Extra point: I’m not ready to say that the Eagles have solved all their offensive issues, especially after demolishing the woeful Raiders, but they have made strides since Sirianni stuck his beak more into the overall operation two weeks ago. Receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith may not love the return to run-heavy play-calling. But having Hurts drop 70% of the time, as he did over a five-game stretch since the bye, wasn’t sustainable. More under center, diversity in the plays, and Hurts on designed runs should be the formula.
That doesn’t mean the pass offense should be dormant. Quinn doesn’t use as much Cover 3 as Carroll, but he will play a fair amount of single-high safety man coverage. And he will blitz about 26% of the time. Brown and Smith should have opportunities vs. cornerbacks Mike Sainristil, Noah Igbinoghene, and Antonio Hamilton. I expect early success on the ground will lead to shots won downfield.
As for Washington’s offense, it turns the ball over at a high clip (20 total turnovers) and the Commanders are last in the NFL in fumble rate. Mariota has three lost fumbles and the running backs collectively have four. I think the Eagles will take the ball away a few times. And as long as they win the turnover battle, I see a victory. It might not be the cakewalk some have predicted, but despite all the outside dissatisfaction about the team this season, the Eagles exit FedEx with a second straight division crown.
Prediction: Eagles 30, Commanders 20