Jeff McLane’s keys to Eagles vs. Commanders in Week 18: What you need to know and a prediction

The Eagles host the Washington Commanders in a Week 18 matchup at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. Here’s what you need to know about the game:

When the Eagles have the ball: It’s Tanner McKee time. Well, the Eagles will have more backups on offense than just the No. 2 quarterback, with the Eagles expected to rest their starters in the season finale. But having McKee under center will give a glimpse of how much he’s progressed in the last year and whether he can increase his value if the front office wants to entertain trade offers this offseason.

He played well a year ago, completing 27 of 41 passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns against New York Giants starters in Week 18. McKee will be facing another comparatively poor defense, but will he have enough around him to get the job done?

» READ MORE: Tanner McKee is ready to ‘play fast’ in his next opportunity to start at quarterback with the Eagles

The Eagles’ offensive line, from left to right, is expected to be: Fred Johnson, Brett Toth, Drew Kendall, Matt Pryor, and Cameron Williams. McKee will have two rookies blocking for him, with Kendall and Williams at center and right tackle, respectively. Williams was activated on Thursday after spending almost the entire season on injured reserve with a shoulder injury.

Washington isn’t strong at edge rusher. The Eagles allowed just one outside pressure when the teams played in Week 16. But Williams may need help on occasion. While McKee had returning-from-injury Dallas Goedert for about a quarter last January, and targeted the tight end on six of the 13 plays he was on the field, he will have no such luxury this season. Receiver Jahan Dotson will likely be the lone starter to play. Dotson is often the fifth option when on the field with the first offense, but the former Commander caught 7 of 11 targets for 94 yards in last season’s finale.

I could see Nick Sirianni and Kevin Patullo leaning into their under-center offense on Sunday. The Eagles have done it more with McKee than with Jalen Hurts, although the sample may not be large enough to make any definitive claims. In the final drive of the Las Vegas Raiders blowout three weeks ago and against New York last year, McKee completed 7 of 9 passes for 80 yards and a touchdown when throwing off play-action from under center.

The second unit offensive line will need to block better on the ground if under-center runs are to be productive. But the Commanders have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. They rank 29th in expected points added (EPA) per rush. (Of note: Three of the league’s bottom four run defenses are the Eagles’ NFC East rivals.)

Tank Bigsby fans should see the running back get a high volume of carries. He enters averaging 6.4 yards a carry with the Eagles and has 98 rushing yards over expected, per NextGen Stats, which is 22 more than starter Saquon Barkley, who has 238 more tries. Will Shipley will be featured in the backfield as well, more likely on passing downs. He could be a check-down favorite for McKee.

Tight end Grant Calcaterra should also get more chances to do what he does best, which is run routes and catch the ball, vs. the run blocking that has contributed to some of the Eagles’ struggles in that regard. But mostly, it’ll be interesting to see McKee operate with Patullo at the controls.

Washington lacks talent and is on the older side, but veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner is still a run-defending machine. And edge rusher Von Miller should have enough gas in the tank to trouble Williams.

When the Commanders have the ball: Speaking of old guys, 39-year-old Josh Johnson will be making only his 11th career start at quarterback since being drafted by the Bucs in 2008. It’ll be his second straight start after backup Marcus Mariota was knocked out against the Eagles two weeks ago.

Johnson looked overwhelmed as a mid-game replacement and threw a bad interception to cornerback Cooper DeJean. He fared better with a week of preparation and completed 15 of 23 passes for 198 yards against the Dallas Cowboys. The Commanders struggled to get much going on offense and lost, 30-23, but offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury schemed up explosive plays on the ground and through the air to help Johnson.

Deebo Samuel was the benefactor of a 41-yard screen pass and a 29-yard end-around. The Eagles have to always be cognizant of where Samuel lines up and how motion misdirects defenders away from him.

Running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt ran for touchdowns of 72 and 10 yards on more traditional runs against the Cowboys. The Commanders won’t have a mobile quarterback like they normally do with Jayden Daniels or Mariota to help the rushing offense. And they’ll be without three-fifths of their starting offensive line. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil, right guard Sam Cosmi, and center dress are out.

The Eagles will have a decidedly different look up front. A year ago, defensive tackle Jordan Davis played a bunch of snaps in the finale. He’ll likely be one of a dozen or so starters who dress on Sunday, but the Eagles will do their best to keep him off the field. He’s come a long way in 12 months.

Byron Young and Ty Robinson will take most of the snaps in the interior. Joshua Uche, who’s been inactive the last five games, will finally get an opportunity to get some repetitions at outside linebacker. Jihaad Campbell was pressed into duty two weeks ago when Nakobe Dean suffered a hamstring injury, but the rookie linebacker is expected to start and play some. Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Smael Mondon will likely log most of the time at off-ball linebacker.

The Eagles could be most susceptible in the secondary. Terry McLaurin vs. most any cornerback would favor the Washington receiver. Cornerback Kelee Ringo and whoever lines up opposite him — Jakorian Bennett or rookie Mac McWilliams — may often get help from safeties Sydney Brown and Andre’ Sam against McLaurin.

Extra point: The line hasn’t moved much, even after it was reported that Sirianni would rest his starters. The Eagles are around 4-point favorites. The news that Johnson was officially starting likely offset any advantage the Commanders might have been expected to gain. Washington coach Dan Quinn doesn’t seem like the tanking type, but it didn’t appear as if he was in any rush to get Mariota back.

The Commanders can improve their draft standing several slots with a loss, and I have to wonder how much the players are motivated at this stage of the season. But I thought they played hard in their last several games, and they may be looking for payback after a first meeting full of chippiness and altercations.

» READ MORE: Eagles vs. Commanders predictions: Our writers pick a winner for Week 18

The Eagles can still improve their playoff seeding with a victory coupled with a Chicago Bears loss to the Detroit Lions. I understand Sirianni’s rationale for giving his starters the game off. He can’t control getting the No. 2 seed, but he can decide who plays and who doesn’t. The Eagles aren’t exactly beat up, but it’s been a long season. A week of rest may help. Tackle Jordan Mailata spoke more about the mental benefits than the physical.

As for the game, I think we may see Patullo use McKee at quarterback as an opportunity to dip into the playbook. That’s no knock against Hurts, but the Eagles have become predictable in certain respects, and I can see more diversity helping their cause. Sirianni has more depth than most teams, but I don’t think his squad is as deep as it was a year ago. I think what’s left of Washington’s first unit has enough to hold on.

Prediction: Commanders 23, Eagles 20.