Eagles vs. Commanders in Week 16: Here are the numbers that matter

Despite some turbulence, the Eagles could celebrate a second consecutive NFC East title Saturday when they travel to Landover, Md., to play the first of two games against the Commanders over the final three weeks of the NFL season.

When the NFL schedule came out, the expectation was that these two games between division rivals who met in last season’s NFC championship game would be critical for playoff positioning. Instead, the Eagles are tracking toward becoming the first repeat NFC East champion since 2004 and Washington is desperately trying to get to the finish line of a miserable season.

But the games must go on, and the Commanders would probably like nothing more than to be an annoying speed bump on the Eagles’ road to the playoffs.

Here’s a look at some numbers that could be important Saturday evening at Northwest Stadium:

The Eagles, in need of an offensive jolt, emerged from their mini-bye after Week 6 utilizing more under-center sets and found success vs. the Vikings and Giants. But after the bye week, their success rate declined vs. the Packers and Lions. Then, in games vs. the Bears and Chargers, they seemed to get away from having Jalen Hurts take snaps from under center almost entirely.

But in their 31-0 victory over the Raiders on Sunday, the Eagles went under center a season-high 30 times in 66 snaps (45.4%). The Eagles ran the ball out of those looks plenty, but they also worked in some play-action. Hurts completed all four of his play-action passes from under center for 66 yards.

Against a weak defense, perhaps Kevin Patullo will continue to take a look at what the Eagles can do from under center compared to their typical shotgun and pistol looks.

» READ MORE: What we know (and don’t) about the Eagles entering Week 16 vs. the Commanders

Only the Cincinnati Bengals, who give up a whopping 403.8 yards per game, allow more yards on average than the Commanders’ 382.6 yards.

Washington’s defensive corps has been decimated by injuries, and the oldest defense in the NFL has not held up well. Both phases have struggled. The Commanders allow 136.3 rushing yards per game and 246.3 passing yards. The Eagles, even with their Jekyll and Hyde offense, should be able to do whatever they want. Their improved running game should find plenty of holes, which should open up play-action passes against a beat-up secondary.

Veteran Von Miller, 36, is still a dangerous pass rusher. He has seven sacks on the season while playing just 38.3% of the snaps. And 35-year-old Bobby Wagner is still an impactful linebacker. But the Commanders don’t have enough playmakers. Cornerback Mike Sainristil had a good rookie season in 2024, but like much of his team, he has taken a step back in 2025. Sainristil has four interceptions, but he’s allowing a passer rating of 109.2 when targeted, according to Next Gen Stats. That’s up from 97.7 last season. Sainristil is allowing a reception on 68.6% of his targets, up from 59.8% last season.

Washington is without cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury in November.

» READ MORE: Eagles must be wary of old friend Marcus Mariota, whose legs pose a threat they have struggled with

If all goes as planned, expect more Tanner McKee snaps in the fourth quarter.

If there’s one area the Eagles should be concerned about defensively, it’s containing Marcus Mariota. Sure, that’s an easier task than containing Jayden Daniels, but Mariota is a veteran quarterback who knows how to play the position and knows when to tuck it and run.

That’s been a problem for the Eagles, who have given up 329 rushing yards this season to opposing quarterbacks. Only the Giants, at 357, haven given up more rushing yards to opposing QBs.

Mariota, 32, used his legs and his arm in helping Washington earn its first win since Oct. 5 on Sunday. He rushed 10 times for 43 yards. And with Terry McLaurin back in action, Mariota found some success with the deep ball. He completed 10 of 19 passes overall, but he went 7-for-11 for 181 yards and a touchdown on throws greater than 10 air yards, according to Next Gen Stats.

Washington has done a decent job protecting its quarterbacks. Its pressure rate allowed is just 33%, good for 12th in the NFL. The Eagles have done a much better job getting after quarterbacks since Jaelan Phillips arrived at the trade deadline. They’ll need to home in on stopping Mariota’s scrambles, though, to prevent Washington from extending drives.

The playoff picture is starting to take shape for the Eagles.

They could wrap up the division Saturday, and even if they don’t, it’s still unlikely they lose out and Dallas wins out. There’s just a 0.8% chance that happens, according to FTN Fantasy.

The Eagles are also inching closer to being locked into the No. 3 seed in the NFC. They remain two games behind the two NFC West teams (Rams, Seahawks) tied for the No. 1 seed and are a game back of the NFC North-leading Bears, who own the tiebreaker over the Eagles.

According to FTN, the likelihood the Eagles finish the season as the third seed in the NFC is up to 82.9%.