Eagles vs. Broncos in Week 5: Here are the numbers that matter

At last, an opponent on the 2025 schedule the Eagles aren’t intimately familiar with and, maybe more important, an opponent that isn’t intimately familiar with them.

The 2-2 Denver Broncos come to town this weekend on a short week following their 28-3 victory over a Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals team. The Broncos’ two losses are by a combined four points, and Denver has a stout defense that could put the Eagles’ up-and-down offense in a blender.

Here’s what some of the numbers tell us about the matchup:

The Broncos are applying pressure to opposing quarterbacks nearly half the time per drop back, an NFL-high 48.1% pressure rate.

They have been able to do so when blitzing and not blitzing. They entered Week 4 with a 40.8% blitz rate, but against a shaky Bengals front they blitzed Jake Browning on just four of his 29 (13.8%) drop backs, according to Next Gen Stats, their second-lowest blitz rate under defensive coordinator Vance Joseph.

The Eagles, meanwhile, are allowing pressure on Jalen Hurts on 43.7% of his drop backs. That, too, has happened both against the blitz and not, like in the second half Sunday, when the Buccaneers showed simulated pressure and mostly rushed four.

» READ MORE: What we know (and don’t) about the Eagles entering Week 5 vs. the Broncos

The Eagles offensive line has not been playing up to its normal standard, both in the running game and protecting Hurts when he’s throwing. Injuries have had an effect; Lane Johnson hasn’t finished either of the last two games. It’s an area that could hurt them against one of the league’s best fronts.

Edge rusher Nik Bonitto, a second-team All-Pro selection in 2024, is the player to watch closest here. He has generated 27 pressures already, according to Next Gen, and 4½ sacks.

Let’s stick with the trenches here, because like many games, it may be where this game is won.

The Broncos may be getting the best line play in the NFL. We talked about how impactful the defensive line has been, but the offensive line also has been really good. Bo Nix has been pressured on just 21.9% of his drops, according to Next Gen, and only two teams (Jacksonville and Buffalo) are allowing pressure on their quarterback less often.

Some extra context may be needed, as all four of their games have come against teams ranked 20th or lower in pressure percentage. The Eagles haven’t been much better here, ranking 16th with a 34.4% pressure rate. Add the fact that Nolan Smith is on injured reserve and the Eagles are reaching further down their depth chart on the edge with injuries piling up and it’s still advantage, Broncos.

The Eagles will, however, offer the most difficult challenge the interior portion of Denver’s line has faced. Moro Ojomo was a menace in Tampa, and assuming Jalen Carter’s shoulder injury doesn’t slow him down, the Eagles should be able to impact the game up front. They’ve gotten only half a sack to this point from their edge players and just five sacks overall, which ranks tied for 25th in the NFL.

What’s next for frustrated Eagles star A.J. Brown? Perhaps a lot of Pat Surtain II, the reigning NFL defensive player of the year. Surtain, arguably the best cornerback in the sport, was matched up with Ja’Marr Chase on Monday night and allowed just 8 yards in his 10 man-coverage snaps vs. Chase, according to Next Gen. Chase had one catch on three targets vs. Surtain, although it was Browning, not Burrow, throwing the football.

» READ MORE: Kevin Patullo on the Eagles' offensive struggles, relationship with A.J. Brown

Still, Surtain is as good as it gets. The Eagles have their own version, too, with Quinyon Mitchell erasing other teams’ star receivers. Two of the best corners in the league will be on the field Sunday.

Surtain has feasted on poor quarterback play. In Week 1 vs. Tennessee and rookie Cam Ward, Surtain was targeted just once in 36 coverage snaps, according to Pro Football Focus.

He didn’t fare as well against better passing offenses like Indianapolis, which is third in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per pass, and the Los Angeles Chargers. In Week 2 vs. the Colts, Surtain surrendered seven catches on nine targets for 63 yards. Against the Chargers the following week, Surtain allowed three catches on five targets for 53 yards, according to PFF.

» READ MORE: Eagles cornerback Kelee Ringo could get another chance to start this week, Vic Fangio says

This isn’t to say the Eagles have a high-powered passing attack right now. They are 24th in EPA per pass.

How does a player like Brown get less frustrated? A day matched up with Surtain is no recipe for a respite.

While the Broncos right now may have an edge in some of the line play and have a neutralizer in Surtain, the Eagles have the edge at the most important position on the field.

Nix had a great second half of the season last year to lead the Broncos to the playoffs as a rookie, but the 12th pick in last year’s draft has been pretty average in 2025.

According to PFF, Nix has seven turnover-worthy plays. Only Baker Mayfield, Tua Tagovailoa, Spencer Rattler, and Geno Smith have more. Nix has just seven touchdown passes against his four interceptions.

» READ MORE: What happened to the Eagles running game? Saquon Barkley and his teammates are looking for answers.

The key for the Eagles will be to get Nix off schedule. That won’t be easy given the Broncos’ line and the Eagles’ struggles getting home. But Nix has not been effective on the move. The Bengals, who haven’t been great pressuring the quarterback this season, managed to force Nix to throw 14 of his 42 pass attempts (33%) on the run, the second-highest rate by any quarterback in a game this season, according to Next Gen. Nix was just 7-for-14 on those throws, including an interception.

The Eagles have been far from perfect, but they have been able to consistently find ways to win. They’re up to 20 wins in their last 21 games, and the lone loss came in the final seconds of a Week 16 defeat at Washington last season in a game Hurts left early in the first quarter.

Hurts has won 18 consecutive games that he has started and finished.

This isn’t some fancy metric or anything that necessarily impacts Eagles-Broncos, but it’s the backdrop for everything in Eagles world right now.

Winning is the best deodorant, or something like that.