The Eagles actually aren’t an awful bet to overtake the Cowboys, as their NFC East title odds improve | KC Joyner

With three wins in their last four games, it certainly seems like a wild-card playoff berth is now a possibility for the Eagles. This mindset is shared by the analytics world, as the New York Times NFL Playoff Predictor model has the Eagles with a 31% chance of making it to the postseason.

That same optimism doesn’t seem to apply to the Eagles’ chances at winning the NFC East, as the Times model indicates they have only a 7% chance of ending this season with a division title. This is why BetMGM has the Eagles currently listed as +1100 to win the NFC East.

Those 11-1 odds seem sensible considering where things stand right at this moment, but the reality is that could be a very wise wager to make, as it will only require a few reasonable events to take place to increase those odds dramatically in the Eagles’ favor.

To illustrate this, let’s start with what the Eagles will need to do to pull this off. Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes recently detailed why a 10- or 11-win season is still well within the Eagles reach. It’s a sensible idea given how Eagles have played of late and their schedule, which looks like this:

Week 12 – at New York Giants

Week 13 – at New York Jets

Week 14 – Bye

Week 15 – vs. Washington

Week 16 – vs. New York Giants

Week 17 – at Washington

Week 18 – vs. Dallas

To give the downside the benefit of the doubt, let’s go with the 10-win scenario and assume one of those victories is the Week 18 matchup against Dallas (which pretty much must happen for the Eagles to win the division) and the loss is at Washington in Week 17.

» READ MORE: Jalen Hurts has one of his worst performances in Eagles’ 41-21 loss in Dallas

The Playoff Predictor has the ability to adjust the protected division win percentage based on the outcomes of selected games. If we put the aforementioned wins and losses for the Eagles into this system and ask it to run over 100,000 simulations, it indicates the Eagles would then have a 38% chance of winning the NFC East.

On the basis of these results alone, independent of any other game outcomes, the Eagles’ division odds move to around 2.6-1, which are incredibly better than the current 11-1 odds.

Now let’s look at the Cowboys’ rest of season schedule:

Week 12 – vs. Las Vegas

Week 13 – at New Orleans

Week 14 – at Washington

Week 15 – at New York Giants

Week 16 – vs. Washington

Week 17 – vs. Arizona

Week 18 – at Eagles

We’ve already locked in the Week 18 loss to the Eagles. Now let’s give the Cowboys wins against the Raiders and Giants and assume that they will split the series with Washington, with a win at home and a road loss. Run more than 100,000 simulations under those circumstances and the Eagles’ NFC East win chance drops to 22%

That’s not a good percentage, but it leaves two games on the Cowboys schedule — the Week 13 matchup against New Orleans and the Week 17 battle against Arizona. The Cardinals might be the best team in the league right now, as they have gone 2-1 without quarterback Kyler Murray in the lineup. If we project Arizona to win that game, as they should have a more than a 50% chance of doing with Murray, and run 100K simulations, it vaults the Eagles’ division title chances to 50%.

At that point, it would come down to the Cowboys-Saints matchup. If New Orleans were to win that contest, the Eagles would be the winners of the NFC East based on tiebreakers, as they would be tied with Dallas with a 10-7 mark and would win the fourth tiebreaker due to having a better conference record (8-4 versus 7-5). The downside there is that Dallas would win the division if they beat the Saints, as they would have an 11-6 record and finish one game ahead of the Eagles.

This shows that it is far from a pie-in-the-sky dream for Nick Sirianni’s squad to have NFC East title aspirations. It also makes those 11-1 odds seem like quite a good upside play for those who partake in such wagers.

Here is this week’s gambling 10-pack, a section that reviews some of the top gambling, fantasy, and DFS plays for NFL games in Week 12 (gambling odds per BetMGM).

1. The NFC East futures wager isn’t the only solid Eagles play this week, as the Birds look to be a very good value at -3.5 against the Giants. The Giants haven’t stopped the run well this year, and their offense has been so bad that they just fired their offensive coordinator. The betting public’s perception of these teams just doesn’t seem to have caught up to the reality of where they are, as this line should be at least three points more in favor of the Eagles.

2. The Eagles are also a good stream start D/ST option because of the highly favorable matchup and because they have scored 11+ fantasy points in three of the past four games. Another quality D/ST option this week is Houston against a Jets squad that is returning to the underwhelming Zach Wilson at quarterback.

3. There are three potentially strong gambling plays on Thanksgiving Day. The first of these is the Lions getting three versus Chicago. Detroit’s defense was playing at a historically bad pace earlier this year, but it has turned things around dramatically and allowed only 29 points over the past two weeks, the eighth lowest points per game mark in that span (per Stathead). Chicago is dealing with rumors that this will be Matt Nagy’s last game as head coach and has injuries to defensive tackle Akiem Hicks, wide receivers Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson, and safety Eddie Jackson. Dan Campbell’s team has fought hard in nearly every game this year and came up just short of multiple wins against quality teams. They will have the fighting spirit on the holiday and that, when combined with a strong rushing attack, will overcome the Lions having to start a backup quarterback, should result in Detroit getting its first victory of the year, so take the Lions +3.

4. The Raiders offense has taken a major step backward in the past three games, as Las Vegas ranks 27th in points scored per game and posted seven giveaways in that span. The Silver and Black’s defense hasn’t been much better, as it has allowed 96 points in those three contests. The Raiders’ rush defense is very much to blame for this, as Las Vegas has given up 133+ rushing yards on seven occasions, including 159 to Cincinnati last week and 149 to the Giants in Week 9. The Cowboys have been dealing with some injuries, but they get Tyron Smith back this week, should have CeeDee Lamb available following his concussion against Kansas City, and has Tony Pollard in reserve to divide carries with Ezekiel Elliott in the event they want to protect Elliott’s injured knee. Add it up and Dallas is a very good play at -7.5.

5. The Bills’ offensive woes aren’t because of a lack of aggressiveness, as Brian Daboll never stops trying to attack defenses on deep passes. Buffalo hasn’t been very successful in those efforts of late, but that should change against a Saints secondary that has struggled in coverage very often in recent games. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore is a major reason why, as he has allowed a 13.0 yards per target or higher in three of the past four games (per Pro Football Reference). This should allow Stefon Diggs to post one of his impact days and vault the Bills to cover the -5.5-point spread.

6. The Titans are now one of the worst rushing teams in the league, as their running-back-by-committee approach had led to only 238 yards on the ground over the past three weeks. Julio Jones is on IR and won’t play this week, and A.J. Brown suffered a concussion and a hand injury in last week’s game against Houston, so the passing game has also been in bad shape. If Brown can’t get moving against a Bill Belichick defense that will be focused almost entirely on stopping him, the Titans could be the fourth straight Patriots foe to score in single digits. Combine that with New England being on a seven-game streak with 24+ points scored, and it should give the Patriots the necessary room to cover the -6.5-point spread.

7. Those needing a tight end because of Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz being on byes in Week 12 can find a solid alternative in Evan Engram, as the Eagles have allowed 429 yards and three touchdowns to opposing tight ends since Week 8. If you would rather not have a Giants player on your squad, check to see if the Steelers’ Pat Freiermuth is available, as he has scored four touchdowns in the past four games and has a solid matchup against Cincinnati.

8. Jonathan Taylor’s odds for the NFL MVP improved notably this week to +2000, but the Colts star still seems like a long shot to garner that award since a running back hasn’t won it since 2012. A better percentage play might be to take Taylor at +200 for Offensive Player of the Year. His top competition there is the Rams’ Cooper Kupp, who is having a tremendous campaign but might be more apt to wear down due to getting a double-digit target workload in nearly every game. Taylor is also getting a ton of work, but he has a more proven durability track record, with three seasons of 300+ scrimmage plays at Wisconsin. If Kupp starts to slow and Taylor keeps trucking along, Taylor could end up with the inside track for this honor by year’s end.

9. Running back Dontrell Hilliard impressed the Titans’ coaches so much in his Sunday performance where he had eight catches for 47 yards that they moved him up to the 53-man roster and dropped Adrian Peterson. It’s very likely that Hilliard will still be available in a lot of fantasy leagues after the initial waiver wire run, so if you are in a PPR league with a reasonably sized bench, consider Hilliard as a quality roster addition.

10. Don’t underestimate the Texans’ Tyrod Taylor in DFS. Taylor was the 11th-ranked quarterback in fantasy last week on the strength of a couple of rushing touchdowns. Taylor should be able to repeat the strong ground game totals against a Jets club that has allowed 514 rushing yards over the past three games, but he should also see improved passing numbers against what might be the worst vertical pass defense in the league Consider Taylor a strong start option in DraftKings at his $5,300 salary.