Can the Eagles still get the No. 1 seed in the NFC? Yes, but it will be difficult.
The Eagles still control their destiny in the NFC East.
There’s a new king in the NFC, and it’s the team that strolled into Lincoln Financial Field on Black Friday, ran all over the Eagles, and silenced the critics — this writer included — who said its 8-3 record was fugazi.
Yes, if the season ended today, all roads would lead to the shirtless final boss, Ben Johnson, and his 9-3 Chicago Bears. And if that pole positioning holds, they’ll have earned it. Chicago’s final five games look like this: at Green Bay, home vs. Cleveland, home vs. Green Bay, at San Francisco, home vs. Detroit.
In other words, the Bears are holding on to that top seed in a similar way Jalen Hurts held onto the football during that fourth-quarter Tush Push on Friday.
» READ MORE: Jalen Hurts is at the root of the Eagles’ offensive problems, but that doesn’t excuse ‘Siritullo’
There are six teams in the NFC now with eight or nine wins, and the Eagles — despite the sky falling on Philadelphia and Nick Sirianni fairly being asked about his offensive coordinator’s job status — are one of them.
Only two teams have an easier schedule the rest of the way than the Eagles, according to Tankathon, and neither team is in the aforementioned group.
Cue the Lloyd Christmas line. Yes, there’s a chance.
The math gets a little complicated, so a tip of the hat to Eagles numbers guru Deniz Selman for laying it all out Monday morning on social media.
There’s a lot going on there.
How likely is the No. 1 seed for the Eagles? FTN Fantasy puts the chances at 3.3%. Not great. But not quite the one-in-a-million odds Christmas faced in Dumb and Dumber.
In fact, considering FTN puts the Eagles’ playoff chances at 93.3%, there’s a better mathematical chance this collapse ends with the Eagles blowing the NFC East and missing the playoffs than the Eagles turning it around and securing the No. 1 seed.
» READ MORE: Friday’s loss to the Bears was the most concerning one of the Nick Sirianni era. Is it 2023 all over again?
Still, that latter scenario seems pretty unrealistic given the schedule ahead. The Eagles could be facing a Chargers team without Justin Herbert, then they have the lowly Raiders and their minus-129 point differential. After that, the remaining three contests are a difficult road game at Buffalo sandwiched by two Commanders games.
The magic number — any combination of Eagles wins and Cowboys losses — to clinch the NFC East is four. FTN Fantasy has the Eagles at 91% to win the NFC East. The Eagles control their destiny there.
As far as the No. 1 seed goes, it’s out of their hands, thanks to Chicago’s 281 rushing yards and another stinker from one of the highest-paid offenses in the NFL.