NFL playoff picks: Vegas Vic likes the Saints, but is staying away from the Chiefs

Inquirer handicapper Vegas Vic trots out some serious trends and stats for his picks in this weekend’s divisional round. Hard to believe that Chiefs record against the spread.

Gonna start each selection with some vital spread stats, just in case you have not had the time. Looking at the Packers, they are 13-3 straight up and 10-6 against the spread. They are 5-3 ATS at home and 8-5 as a favorite. They have gone Over nine times and Under seven (4-4 to the Over at home).

The Rams are 11-6 straight up and 10-7 against the spread. They are 5-4 ATS on the road and 4-2 as an underdog. They have gone Under 12 times and Over five (5-4 to the Over away).

Cal vs. Cal. Aaron Rodgers (2003-04) vs. Jared Goff (2013-15). It’s also Chico, Calif. vs. Novato, Calif. And then, it’s best friends Sean McVay vs. Matt LaFleur, who both coached under Mike Shanahan at Washington for a few years. That’s where the similarities end. Why? Because Rodgers will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer and Goff is five years into a career that is still pretty much of a mystery.

At 37, Mr. Discount Double Check had his BEST year EVER! He completed a staggering 70.7% of his passes (No. 1 in the NFL), gobbled up 4,299 yards and threw 48 TDs (No. 1) with only 5 INTs (tied for lowest in the league). With a question mark after Aaron Donald’s name, because of some cranky ribs, and Goff coming off a 9-for-19 performance last week against Seattle, we’re buying CHEESE!

Staff picks:

The Bills are 14-3 straight up and 11-6 against the spread. They are 6-3 ATS at home and 8-4 as a favorite. They have gone Over 12 times and Under four with one push (6-3 to the Over at home).

The Ravens are 12-5 straight up and 11-5-1 against the spread. They are 6-2-1 ATS on the road and 2-0 as an underdog. They have gone Over seven times and Under 10 (4-5 to the Under away).

OH BOY. My fingers are twitching because after three weeks of BEST-BETTING Baltimore, I’m switching sides. Also PRAYING for snow. Why? Buffalo QB Josh Allen spent his college years in Laramie, Wyo., so snow (64 inches per year), cold weather and wind were just another Saturday. Baltimore’s electric Lamar Jackson was born and raised in Pompano Beach, Fla., where the average snowfall is, let’s see, ZERO! NADA! NONE! When asked about playing in the snow, Jackson said, “Saturday would be my first time playing football in the snow, if it does. Hopefully, it don’t.”

Not just basing this pick on weather, but also the fact that last season, the Bills limited Lamar to 40 yards on 11 carries. Not throwing all my chips in, but will circle the wagons, just making it a smaller circle.

Staff picks:

The Chiefs are 14-2 straight up and 6-9-1 against the spread. They are 3-5 ATS at home and 5-8-1 as a favorite. They have gone Over eight times and Under seven times with one push (4-4 to the Over at home).

The Browns are 12-5 straight up and 7-10 against the spread. They are 4-5 ATS on the road and 3-3 as an underdog. They have gone Over 10 times and Under seven (5-4 to the Over away).

Totally understand that everyone is on Kaycee, and why not. They have the MAGICAL Patrick Mahomes at QB. And the RIDONKULOUS Andy Reid record — 18-3 regular season, 5-2 playoffs — after a bye. But there are a couple things to consider.

Cleveland gets its head coach, Kevin Stefanski, back. And possibly, All-Pro OL Joel Bitonio. And if you’re worrying about the Browns’ giving up 501 air yards to Ben Roethlisberger last weekend, DON’T. The Brownies were up by 35-10 at the half, played soft and took their foot off the gas in the second half.

The other concern is the Chiefs’ work in the second half of the season. Yes, they won seven of the last eight, but DID NOT COVER A SPREAD, as in 0-7-1. Gonna roll with Cleveland and counting on The Baker to make the DOUGH in my BANK ACCOUNT RISE!

Staff picks:

The Saints are 13-4 straight up and 10-6-1 against the spread. They are 5-3-1 ATS at home and 9-6 as a favorite. They have gone Over 10 times and Under seven times (6-3 to the Over at home).

The Bucs are 12-5 straight up and 10-7 against the spread. They are 5-4 ATS on the road and 8-6 as a favorite. They have gone Over 10 times and Under seven (6-3 to the Over away).

New Orleans has covered eight of the last nine with one push, and anytime you’re talking about an 89% cover rate, you gotta pay attention. However, we’re paying MORE attention to the two games that these NFC South rivals played this season. They opened the season in the Superdome, and the Saints (-4) posted a 34-23 win and cover. The shocker was the rematch down in Tampa, when New Orleans (+3) went to the Sunshine State and CRUSHED the Bucs, 38-3. OUCH!

In those two games, the 42-year-old outplayed the 43-year-old by a MILE. Brees, the youngster, completed 44 of 62 passes (71%), with SIX TDs and ZERO INTs.

TB12, the elder, completed 45 of 74 (61%), with just two TDs but FIVE INTs. There’s just one thing left to say: This IS my BEST BET BAABBBEEE!

Staff picks:

Last week

Ed Barkowitz: 3-3 (0-1 Best Bet)

Les Bowen: 4-2, 1-0

Paul Domowitch: 2-4, 0-1

Marcus Hayes: 2-4, 0-1

Jeff McLane: 3-3, 0-1

EJ Smith: 2-4, 0-1

Vegas Vic: 4-2, 1-0