‘Stats don’t matter’: Can the Eagles offense flip the switch in the playoffs? Does it need to?

Saquon Barkley has a favorite element of playoff football. Winning the Super Bowl in his first season with the Eagles last year and celebrating with a parade was a lot of fun. The Eagles got there and did that in large part because the NFL’s 2024 offensive player of the year rushed for 499 yards and five touchdowns in four games.

The trophy and the stats were cool, but Barkley — who is, it’s worth mentioning here, not having a statistical season worth remembering — would seemingly hand those numbers to someone else if the postseason result can remain the same. If the Eagles, like they are more prone to do this season, plod their way to another title.

“Most importantly it’s winning, winning football, however it looks,” Barkley said this week. “That’s the best thing about the playoffs. If we win every game the way we won against Buffalo, no one’s going to care. No one is going to feel like we didn’t do enough on offense. Even you guys can’t really write nothing about it because we got to move on to the next week.

“That’s my favorite part about the playoffs. Stats don’t matter. The only thing that matters is winning the game, and I’m excited for that.”

It is a constant message around the NovaCare Complex, straight from the mouths of the organization’s leaders, Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts, who, to be fair, have done a lot of winning.

But it’s also the easiest message to lean on right now as the Eagles and their maligned offense start on a playoff run — in a wide-open tournament — that could conceivably end Sunday or a month from now in California. Because the stats, which Barkley says don’t matter, aren’t good.

In case you need to be reminded how Kevin Patullo’s first regular season as offensive coordinator went: The Eagles ranked 24th in yards per game. They had a higher three-and-out percentage than the New York Jets. Barkley’s rushing yards were nearly cut in half this season as the Eagles faced a higher frequency of stacked boxes and he ran behind a banged-up offensive line that struggled to create space. They have struggled with their operation from one play to the next and snap the ball later in the clock than any other team. Hurts is running less than he ever has.

The Eagles went 11-6, won the woeful NFC East for the second consecutive season, and earned the NFC’s third seed, which awarded them a home game Sunday, in large part because Vic Fangio’s defense allows the Eagles to squeak out 13-12 victories like the one Barkley mentioned against Buffalo.

But will the offense turn it on in the playoffs and help the Eagles make another run? Playing defense at a high level and taking care of the football is the Eagles’ formula. It can be a winning one. Which raises the question: Does the offense need to turn it on?

» READ MORE: Eagles’ postseason adjustments, concerns with the offense, breakout players, and other AMA highlights

The answer to that question can be both yes and no. The Eagles can’t win a Super Bowl by just playing defense and not turning the ball over. They will obviously need to score points. But they have shown that winning football games does not require 30-point outbursts despite their high-priced offensive firepower.

There is not, however, a lot of recent precedent for a team with this type of offense reaching the Super Bowl. Only two teams — as pointed out recently by PHLY Sports — had lower success rates and expected points added per drive than this year’s Eagles team and reached the final weekend of the NFL season: the 2015 Denver Broncos and the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs.

The Eagles are 22nd in offensive success rate, according to SumerSports. Only one playoff team, the Houston Texans, ranks lower.

But multiple key members of the organization this week expressed confidence that the Eagles are moving in the right direction offensively and have what it takes to make a playoff run with the offense being a big part of it all.

Jordan Mailata pointed to the last month for evidence. He said the Eagles have gotten more creative with their formations, sending Hurts under center and using play action. The running game has shown signs of life, even if a weak Bills defense stopped the Eagles in the second half of their Dec. 28 game in New York, the last time the first-team offense was on the field.

“I’ve seen us do it at a high level,” Barkley said. “Now we just got to lock in.”

That would be made a little easier with the return of Lane Johnson, who missed the last seven games of the season with a foot injury. The Eagles’ offense goes as its running game goes, and while Barkley was hit behind the line of scrimmage on 47.1% of his carries this season, according to Next Gen Stats — it got even worse when Johnson was out.

Designed rushes outside the right tackle earned 2.3 yards before contact per carry when Johnson was on the field compared to 0.1 with him out of the game, according to Next Gen.

The Eagles can lean on that and some of their recent success in scheming runs against the Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Washington Commanders, and in the first half of the Bills game. They can lean on under-center looks to both run out of and utilize the play-action game. They can, so long as they move the ball, lean on their NFL-best 70.45% rate of converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns. They can let Hurts loose in the running game, which could in turn help open up everything else.

“You have to have an identity of what you want to do,” Sirianni said this week.

He thinks the Eagles have found theirs. Better late than never.

» READ MORE: With Mike McDaniel and Kliff Kingsbury looming, Kevin Patullo needs to have himself a big postseason

Sunday’s playoff-opening matchup with the 49ers should present opportunities for the offense. The 49ers have the 20th-ranked defense in the NFL by yards allowed per game. They are missing multiple linebackers, which should weaken a unit that already allows 4.3 yards per carry, also 20th in the NFL. The passing defense has been even more beatable. Only seven teams allow more passing yards than the 49ers.

It is an opportunity for Patullo to dip into the playbook and game plan a balanced offensive attack that exploits San Francisco’s weaknesses and utilizes the abundance of talent the Eagles have on offense.

“I think game-by-game, you’re just doing whatever you need to do to win the game,” said Patullo, whose job could be in jeopardy with an early playoff exit. “So, we will do anything and everything we have to, to put our players in a position and give them a chance to execute and win the game.

“Really up to this point, our whole goal has just been to win games, and that’s what we’re trying to do is win as many games as we can. And obviously now it counts even more. So as far as game planning going forward, it is whatever we need to do is what we’re going to do to win the game.

“I think we’ve spread it out to do totally different things from game-to-game, week-to-week. And so that’s where we’re at. We’ll just do whatever we have to do and keep pushing forward.”

That is the company line. It is one that has worked, but it is one that will be tested this weekend and beyond, should the Eagles advance.

Do the Eagles, with all the ups and downs the offense has been faced with this season, have enough answers?

“I think it depends on what perspective you look at, half-empty or half-full,” Hurts said. “I think being able to evolve and change as much as we have and still find ways to win, in ways gives you ... maybe gives off this perspective of, ‘Well, what are they going to do? Who are they?’ I do definitely think that is a way that you can look at it.

“Also, at the end of the day, we’re not going to be judged off how it got done. We’re going to be judged off of if we did it or not. So my focus is on doing it.”