Super Bowl 2019: Rams-Patriots scouting report, prediction

What will happen Sunday?

Here’s a look at which team has the edge on offense and defense, and three keys to a win:

The Patriots’ ground game was extremely productive late in the season, including their two playoff wins. They rushed for 176 yards on 48 carries against the Chiefs in the AFC championship game and 155 on 34 carries against the Chargers. They had 25 rushing first downs and eight rushing touchdowns in those two wins.

That extraordinary number of rushing first downs was largely the result of a lot of third-and-short situations. Sixteen of the Patriots’ 33 postseason third-down opportunities were 4 yards or shorter.

Rookie Sony Michel, who led the Patriots in rushing this season with 931 yards, had 242 yards against the Chargers and Chiefs. Despite the significant inside presence of Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, the Rams allowed a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry this season. But, they’ve been much more effective in the playoffs, holding the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott to 47 yards on 20 carries and the Saints’ tandem of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to 46 yards on 17 carries.

EDGE: Patriots

Statistically, Brady didn’t have a Brady-like year. He finished 12th in passing efficiency (97.7), 16th in touchdown percentage (1 per 19.6 attempts), 13th in yards per attempt (7.6), 18th in completion percentage (65.8), and 12th in third-down passing (94.4).

Brady has thrown just two TD passes in the Patriots’ two playoff wins, but there he was in overtime against the Chiefs two weeks ago, completing three third-and-10 passes on the Patriots’ game-winning touchdown drive.

With the loss of Josh Gordon, Brady’s pass-catching options are wide receiver Julian Edelman, tight end Rob Gronkowski, running back James White, and not much else. But they’re a formidable threesome. White had a team-high 87 receptions during the regular-season and has 19 in the Patriots’ two playoff wins.

Brady was sacked just 21 times in the regular season and has yet to be sacked in the postseason. But Donald, who had a league-high 20½ sacks, and Suh have the ability to get inside pressure on Brady.

EDGE: Patriots

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Todd Gurley was the NFL’s third-leading rusher this season with 1,251 yards and a league-high 17 rushing TDs. But he had just four carries and played fewer than half the snaps in the NFC championship game. He missed the final two regular-season games with knee inflammation, but he rushed for 115 yards in the Rams’ divisional playoff win over the Cowboys.

The Rams signed C.J. Anderson off the street in mid-December, and he rushed for 299 yards in their final two regular-season games and 123 plus two TDs against the Cowboys. But he was held to 44 yards by the Saints in the NFC championship game. The Rams have a veteran offensive line that averages 102 career starts per man.

The Patriots finished 29th in opponent rush average in the regular-season (4.9), but they shut down the ground games of the Chargers and Chiefs in the playoffs, holding them to 2.7 yards per carry. They gave up 61 runs of 10 yards or more this season, seventh most in the league.

EDGE: Rams

Jared Goff finished eighth in passing efficiency (101.1). He had the league’s fourth-best yards-per-attempt average (8.36) and was tied for sixth in touchdown passes (32). He had just two games with multiple interceptions.

Goff has thrown just one TD pass in the Rams’ two playoff wins and has a 58.8 completion percentage. He’s been ineffective on third down, completing just 9 of 19 third-down attempts and averaging 5.9 yards per attempt.

The loss of productive slot receiver Cooper Kupp was a big blow to the Rams, who use “11’’ personnel almost exclusively. Versatile running back Todd Gurley, who had 59 catches in the regular-season, also was a nonfactor in the passing game in the Rams’ two playoff wins (three catches, 6 yards).

Despite a pass rush that registered the third-fewest sacks (30) in the league in the regular season, the Patriots finished second in opponent completion percentage (61.2) and fifth in opponent yards per attempt (6.9) and were tied for third in interceptions with 18. In the AFC title game, they held Patrick Mahomes to a season-worst 51.6 completion percentage.

EDGE: Rams

Sunday’s game features two of the league’s best kickers: the Patriots’ Stephen Gostkowski and the Rams’ Greg Zuerlein. Gostkowski’s 87.4 field goal percentage is third best in league history. He made 30 of 35 attempts this season but was just 2-for-5 from 50-plus yards. Zuerlein, who missed five early-season games with a groin injury, also has just five misses (in 39 attempts). He made critical 48- and 57-yard kicks in the NFC championship game to propel the Rams to SBLIII.

The Patriots blocked a league-high five kicks in the regular season. The Rams were fifth with three. The Patriots have one of the league’s best kick returners in Cordarrelle Patterson, who averaged 28.8 yards per return this season. The Rams finished 12th in kickoff coverage (22.5). Rams punt returner JoJo Natson averaged 10.8 yards in the regular season but has averaged just 4.0 in the playoffs.

Rams punter Johnny Hekker is a four-time Pro Bowler who finished second in net average (43.0). He also completed 3 of 5 passes on fake punts, including one in the NFC championship game.

EDGE: Even

This is the Patriots’ ninth Super Bowl appearance in the last 18 years and their fifth in the last eight. So, they’ve got the been-there-done-that thing going for them, which certainly helps as far as dealing with outside distractions and handling the enormity of the game. Then again, they lost to the Eagles last year.

EDGE: Patriots

Patriots 31, Rams 30

Rams DT Aaron Donald vs. Patriots LG Joe Thuney and C David Andrews. Donald is expected to win his second straight NFL Defensive Player of the Year award Saturday night. Bill Belichick has described him as unblockable. Thuney didn’t give up any sacks this season, but he and Andrews allowed 43 pressures.

ADVANTAGE: Rams

Patriots RB James White vs. Rams LBs. Mark Barron and the rest of the Rams LBs had a tough time stopping Saints RB Alvin Kamara in the passing game in the NFC championship game. Kamara had 11 catches for 96 yards. White led the Patriots in receptions in the regular season (87, including 7 TDs) and has 19 catches in the Pats’ two playoff wins. He’s one of just two running backs to have 100 receiving yards in a Super Bowl. The Eagles’ Corey Clement is the other.

ADVANTAGE: Patriots

Rams RBs Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson vs. Patriots front seven. Gurley is one of the best RBs in the league. Anderson, signed in December, has averaged 5.7 yards per carry and 116.5 yards in four games, including the playoffs. The Patriots finished 29th in opponent rush average during the regular season but held their two playoff opponents to 2.7 yards per carry.

ADVANTAGE: Rams

Patriots on third down: The Patriots finished 13th in third-down efficiency in the regular season (40.8), but have been on fire on third down in the playoffs, converting 20 of 33 opportunities (60.6). Sixteen of their 33 third-down situations have been 4 yards or shorter. Tom Brady has completed 18 of 22 passes in the postseason, 14 of which have produced first downs.

Rams on first down: The Rams averaged an NFL-best 6.82 yards per play on first down in the regular season, but haven’t been quite as good in the playoffs (5.72). Jared Goff has completed just 15 of 27 passes on first down.

Rams in the red zone: The Rams had 23 more red-zone opportunities than the Patriots in the regular season (a league-high 80 to New England’s 57), but just 12 more red-zone TDs. In their two playoff wins, the Rams are just 4-for-8 in the red zone. Against a Patriots defense that has yet to make a red-zone stop in the playoffs, the Rams need to maximize their opportunities inside the 20. Two-for-four won’t cut it.

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