Jeff McLane’s keys to Eagles vs. Raiders in Week 15: What you need to know and a prediction
The Raiders are struggling, but so are the Eagles, who can't take anything for granted on Sunday.
The Eagles host the Las Vegas Raiders in a Week 15 matchup at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday at 1 p.m. Here’s what you need to know about the game:
When the Eagles have the ball: No defense in the NFL stacks the box as much as the Raiders, and it’s not close. Their 50.5% stacked box rate is 13% higher than the next team. What’s that mean for the Eagles? It’s pretty obvious, considering the success other defenses have had concentrating their efforts on stopping Saquon Barkley and the run game, and how Jalen Hurts has performed as a passer — especially over the last five games. If Las Vegas is going to stay in base personnel a lot, it’s imperative that Hurts and Co. use light numbers in the secondary to their advantage. And stop running into heavy fronts on first down! That said, I think Nick Sirianni and Kevin Patullo will have ample amount of short passing concepts to rebuild Hurts’ confidence after his five-turnover performance vs. the Chargers.
Raiders head coach Pete Carroll is one of the greatest defensive minds in NFL history, but his scheme hasn’t evolved as much as it should to counter modern offenses. He doesn’t have his safeties disguise pre-snap or rotate post-snap as much as they should, and his zone coverages lack matchup principles. Hurts should have chances to throw downfield vs. single-high looks, particularly Carroll’s preferred Cover 3. Post safety Isaiah Pola-Mao is no Earl Thomas — Carroll’s linchpin when he was with the Seahawks. Pola-Mao has a 20.3 missed tackle rate, per Pro Football Focus, and has allowed five touchdowns through the air. Carroll has a capable box safety in the Kam Chancellor role: Jeremy Chinn. He’s played more often on the line as the season has progressed. He also has another former safety in quasi-linebacker Jamal Adams to compensate for playing more base.
I like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith against most cornerbacks, but Carroll doesn’t have Eric Stokes and Darien Porter on islands much. Hurts is likely to see a lot of zone again. Can the Eagles build off the middle-of-the-field concepts that produced chunk yards in Los Angeles? The disparate numbers between shotgun and under-center runs suggest Sirianni and Patullo should lean more into the latter, especially considering how it’s set up play-action passes. Hurts completed both play-action throws for 48 yards vs. the Chargers. Let’s see more of that. The Raiders’ Devin White, who was briefly with the Eagles last season, would be the second-level linebacker I’d target in the pass game.
If there’s one guy who can wreck the Eagles’ game plan, it’s Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby. Maybe I buried the lede with Fred Johnson starting in place of right tackle Lane Johnson for a fourth straight game. Crosby will line up over Fred Johnson most of the time. He has nine sacks and 18 quarterback hits this season. But with no one else of comparable talent up front, the Eagles should help Johnson enough to keep Crosby at bay. Crosby’s also banged up with knee and shoulder injuries, and no D-lineman has played more snaps (759) in the NFL this season. He was a full participant in practice on Friday.
When the Raiders have the ball: This will likely be the worst offense the Eagles have faced this season. The only variable that could hinder their chances is the new guy under center: Kenny Pickett. You may laugh, but injured starter Geno Smith is ahead of only Titans rookie Cam Ward in total expected points added (EPA) among quarterbacks. Pickett’s become a backup for good reason, but he also has 16 career wins as a starter, including the division clincher for the Eagles last season. In Smith’s defense, he’s played behind a bad offensive line and has few receivers who can get consistent separation. Tre Tucker (46 catches for 574 yards and five touchdowns) is his best downfield threat.
Brock Bowers is easily the Raiders’ best skill position player. The tight end will fall short of his record-setting rookie season when he caught 112 passes for 1,194 yards, but he has 53 grabs for 619 yards despite missing three games and is on target for another solid campaign. He also has six touchdowns and will be Pickett’s best red-zone option. The Eagles have held tight ends to a league-low 428 receiving yards this season. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will use a combination of Cooper DeJean, Zack Baun, and Reed Blankenship — plus some bracketing — to contain Bowers.
As long as the Eagles are consistently out of third-and-short, I fail to see Las Vegas having much chance to put up points. The Raiders have been unable to do much on the ground for most of the season. Running back Ashton Jeanty averages just 3.5 yards a carry. It’s hardly the rookie’s fault his offense is last in the league in EPA/rush. The Raiders’ offensive line has been lacking at least one above-average blocker since left tackle Kolton Miller suffered an injury in Week 4. His possible return could offset an Eagles pass rush that has gotten better since the arrival of outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips, but I see a repeat of what happened against a patchwork Chargers O-line.
Extra point: The Eagles are double-digit favorites (12½ points) for the first time this season — a telling number considering how poor their offense has been since the Week 9 bye. Of course, the spread has as much to do with the Raiders incompetency as it does the Birds’ recent struggles. This is as close to an ideal get-back opportunity as Hurts and the offense could have at this stage of the season. Las Vegas has a decent defense and I suspect all the problems on that side of the ball won’t be solved. But you can’t lose if the other team doesn’t score points, and an Eagles’ shutout is in play. Really.
Weather will be a factor. There might be some snow showers, but 15-25 mph winds will be more the concern. Hurts and kicker Jake Elliott have struggled at times in bad weather games, but also in pristine conditions. I anticipate an outcome that will end up a nothingburger — the Eagles win behind their defense with the offense not performing well enough to satisfy most. Chip Kelly’s expected return to Philly would have brought some drama to the proceedings, but he was fired as Raiders offensive coordinator last month. We now just have “Pickett’s Charge” to write about. I foresee an end similar to that of the Confederate army.
Prediction: Eagles, 24-9.