These numbers show Saquon Barkley’s drop-off from his historic 2024 season with the Eagles

Saquon Barkley isn’t going to become the first running back in NFL history to have a second 2,000-yard season — at least not in 2025. At his current rate, he’ll barely exceed 1,000 rushing yards, a benchmark he hasn’t failed to reach while playing a full season in his NFL career.

What was Barkley going to do for an encore? It was one of the big storylines for the Eagles before the season started. Repeating last season’s success was always going to be difficult. But this? He has just one game over 100 yards after having 11 such performances in 16 regular-season games last season.

The Eagles are struggling on offense, and it’s fair to say their inability to consistently run the ball is the biggest concern of all. There are a variety of reasons. Barkley thinks he’s in “a little funk,” but tackle Jordan Mailata blamed the offensive line’s execution.

There are multiple hands sharing the blame, but regardless of who shoulders it most, Barkley’s drop-off has been precipitous. Here’s a look at some numbers that show the drastic decline:

It’s worth starting here because it can help explain everything in some ways. We knew opposing defenses were going to change their approach. The Eagles surely did, too.

Last season, Barkley faced eight or more defenders in the box 20.6% of the time, according to Next Gen Stats. That was 20th in the NFL among qualified rushers.

This season, Barkley is facing eight or more defenders in the box 32.4% of the time, the seventh-highest rate in the NFL.

Barkley did much of his damage in 2024 against opposing teams’ nickel packages. This year, the Eagles are facing fewer of those. Teams are matching the Eagles’ personnel, and the Eagles are running a lot of 12 and 13 packages (one running back plus two tight ends and one running back plus three tight ends, respectively).

Defensive coordinators seemingly have decided that they’re going to sell out to stop the run and dare Jalen Hurts and the passing offense to beat them.

» READ MORE: What we know (and don’t) about the Eagles entering Week 13 vs. the Bears

Mailata is right that the running game’s issues start with the offensive line. A running back needs blockers, and right now Barkley just isn’t getting enough help in front of him.

There’s a variety of reasons for that, even though the Eagles returned four-fifths of their starting offensive line. First off, the replacement for Mekhi Becton at right guard, Tyler Steen, has not had the same kind of success run blocking. But the four returners haven’t been themselves, and injuries mostly are to blame. Lane Johnson has suffered multiple ailments, the latest a Lisfranc injury in his right foot. Cam Jurgens started the season coming off back surgery and has since suffered a knee injury and a concussion. Landon Dickerson has experienced bad injury luck going back to his collegiate career and probably hasn’t been 100% since high school.

Last season, Barkley had room to run. This season, he doesn’t. That’s clear in the numbers, too. In 2024, Barkley ran 3.8 yards per carry before being contacted. This season, that number has dropped to 2.3 yards per attempt, according to Pro Football Reference.

“It’s on all of us,” Mailata said Sunday after the Eagles blew a 21-0 lead partially because they can’t run the ball. “You can just watch the film. We always say we’re one block away, and as tiring and as repetitive as that is, that is the truth. I’m tired of saying it, but it starts with us. We’ve got to do a better job of execution, and until we do that, this running game is not going anywhere.”

Barkley in open space meant a lot of room to sprint. He finished second in the NFL in 15-plus-mph runs with 73 in 2024. This season, he is eighth with 28 such runs, according to Next Gen, and he’s on pace to finish with just 43 15-plus-mph runs.

Blocking is a big factor there. But what about Barkley’s burst and his overall health? He touched the ball 482 times last season between rushes and receptions in the regular season and playoffs. His previous high was 377 in 2022.

Barkley’s training regimen is pretty good. But that’s a lot of wear and tear in one season. Barkley said he was healthy on Sunday when asked after the game.

» READ MORE: Nick Sirianni says the Eagles are ‘searching for answers’ on offense, but Kevin Patullo will call plays

Next Gen’s expected rushing yards model calculates “how many rushing yards a ballcarrier is expected to gain on a given carry based on the relative location, speed, and direction of blockers and defenders.”

The model also calculates a metric called “rushing yards over expected,” which is “the difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards on an individual play or series of plays.”

Last season, Barkley was second in the NFL with 546 yards over expected — an average of 1.6 yards over expected per attempt — behind Derrick Henry’s 562 yards over expected. The third player on the list, Chuba Hubbard, had 270 yards over expected, which shows how otherworldly Henry and Barkley were in 2024.

This season, Barkley is at minus-3 yards over expected and zero yards over expected per attempt. Those numbers rank 32nd in the NFL.

What’s the takeaway here? The blocking hasn’t been good, but Barkley hasn’t been himself at beating defenders, either.