Eagles vs. 49ers: These numbers and trends could impact Sunday’s result

The Eagles and San Francisco 49ers meet at Lincoln Financial Field in the playoffs Sunday for the second time in four seasons.

And while some things have changed since that NFC championship game won by the Eagles in January 2023, other things remain the same.

It’s a high-powered 49ers offense against a pretty good Eagles defense, and a fairly average Eagles offense against a pretty unremarkable 49ers defense.

Who has the edge? Oddsmakers say the Eagles. But here’s a look at some numbers and trends that could play a part in the final result Sunday.

This isn’t a shocking development, but news flash: Hall of Fame tackles are a big deal.

The Eagles sorely miss right tackle Lane Johnson whenever he’s not in the lineup. (Luckily for them, he’s on track to return Sunday.) Likewise, the 49ers operate their offense at a different level when Trent Williams is starting at left tackle compared to when they’re forced to plug in a 28-year-old journeyman making his first NFL start. All due respect to Austen Pleasants.

Brock Purdy entered last week as one of only two quarterbacks in the NFL (the other being Caleb Williams) to average a time to throw of more than three seconds. But without Trent Williams, who missed Week 18 with a hamstring injury, Purdy’s average time to throw was 2.93 seconds — his second-lowest number in nine games this season, according to Next Gen Stats.

Williams will be evaluated throughout the week, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters on Monday, and his absence would obviously be a big one.

The caveat here is that Seattle has one of the best defenses in the NFL, but without Williams, Purdy was pressured on 34.1% of his drop backs Saturday. That’s slightly above the 49ers’ average pressure rate allowed of 31.9% and much higher than San Francisco’s previous two contests (23.7%, 22.2%). Only nine teams protect the quarterback at a better rate than San Francisco does.

The Eagles, meanwhile, have a 35% pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks. Their ability to disrupt the pocket for Purdy, and make him get rid of the ball quicker than he likes, will be a key factor.

» READ MORE: What we know (and don’t) about the Eagles entering the wild-card round vs. the 49ers

The Eagles might have the 24th-ranked offense in yards per game, but they are the best in the NFL at converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns. It’s getting to the red zone that has been a problem.

The Eagles score touchdowns on 70.45% of their red zone trips. Cincinnati ranked second during the regular season at 66.67%. The difference between the Eagles and some of the teams at the bottom is drastic. Houston, for example, had the worst conversion rate for a playoff team at 46.3%, 30th in the league.

There are a lot of things that have gone wrong in Kevin Patullo’s first season as Eagles offensive coordinator, but his red zone designs are something to hang his hat on. He probably helped Dallas Goedert earn some extra money in his next contract, too, since Goedert is up to a career-high 11 touchdowns and all but one of them were in the red zone (many of them in the deep red zone).

The Eagles’ ability to move the ball against a defensive unit that has struggled and is a bit banged up will be a big factor, but once they get in the red zone, San Francisco’s ability to hold the Eagles to field goals will be critical. The 49ers have the 12th-ranked red zone defense and allow touchdowns on 53.85% of red zone trips.

And you thought Saquon Barkley had too many touches during his record-breaking 2024 season with the Eagles?

Christian McCaffrey played in all 17 49ers games this season and finished with 311 carries and 102 receptions. His 413 touches during the regular season were 44 more than the next player on the list (Jonathan Taylor).

That’s a lot of work, and maybe it’s not such a coincidence that Saturday was one of the least productive games of McCaffrey’s NFL career. Again, Seattle’s defense is elite, but McCaffrey still managed 142 all-purpose yards when they met in Week 1. He struggled to get anything going on Saturday with just 23 yards on eight carries and six catches for 34 yards.

Purdy had trouble moving the ball down the field, and once he checked down to McCaffrey, the running back who was second in the league in yards from scrimmage didn’t find a whole lot of room to run.

The Eagles will certainly be studying the film to see what Seattle did well and try to emulate it. Slowing McCaffrey down and keeping San Francisco in third-and-long scenarios will make everything easier for Vic Fangio’s defense.

» READ MORE: Nakobe Dean’s expected return from injury could be critical against 49ers ground attack

For the first time all season, the Eagles will have a second consecutive home game. Hard to believe. How did the NFL treat its Super Bowl champion from a season ago? It made the Eagles the first champion in league history to not have back-to-back home games on the schedule.

Home field for the Eagles has been a big deal in the playoffs, which may sting come next week if the Eagles advance and have to travel to Chicago for a road divisional-round matchup.

The Eagles, with Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts in charge, are 5-0 with a plus-105 point differential in home playoff games. The 31-7 NFC title game victory over the 49ers during the 2022 playoffs helped pad that differential.