Super Bowl LIII: Our football writers predict the winner

Here are the Super Bowl predictions from our football beat writers:

Both of these teams have flaws. If a pass-interference call is made correctly in the NFC title game, and if Dee Ford doesn’t line up offside in the AFC championship game, the Saints are playing the Chiefs in this Super Bowl. I think they probably were the league’s two most talented, consistent teams this season. But that isn’t the matchup.

Everybody got all excited about Rams cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman’s assertion early in the week that Tom Brady isn’t quite the quarterback he once was. A month ago, most of the league felt that way about Brady and about the Patriots, truth be told. Their playoff run has changed the narrative. But if the Rams get consistent pass-rush pressure on Brady, they will win.

I'm tremendously impressed with what New England's offensive line has done lately, though, so getting that pressure on Brady won't be easy. I don't see the Rams shutting down the Pats' potent running game. I'd like to see the Rams win this, even if it meant enduring a full offseason of writers plumbing Sean McVay's vast, precocious genius. But I'm not gonna bet against the Evil Empire.

Prediction: Patriots 26, Rams 23

You win Super Bowls for a lot of reasons, and none is more important than executing on third down. You saw that with the Eagles last year. They converted an impressive 60.5 percent of their third-down opportunities in their three playoff wins.

Nick Foles completed 26 of 32 third-down passes and averaged 12.4 yards per attempt in the postseason. He was 11-for-14 for 169 yards and two touchdowns on third down in the Super Bowl.

In this postseason, Tom Brady and the Patriots have been unstoppable on third down. They’ve converted 60.6 percent of their third-down opportunities, mainly by staying out of a lot of third-and-longs, though they converted three third-and-10s on that game-winning drive against the Chiefs in the AFC championship game.

Brady has completed 18 of 22 third-down passes in the playoffs, 14 of which have produced first downs. If he can keep up that kind of production Sunday — and I think he will — the Patriots will win.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Rams 30

When in doubt, pick the better quarterback. That’s typically my go-to way to decide on a what might appear to be a even matchup. But I’m going against my own advice, fingers crossed. Tom Brady is Tom Brady. Even if he struggles for periods, he’ll find a way to make defenses pay. And I just don’t love Jared Goff enough to say he’ll be the reason the Rams will win.

But I still don’t think the Patriots are a great team. They have a great coach, maybe the greatest, and Bill Belichick will find a way to neutralize one of Los Angeles' advantages, maybe Aaron Donald. But the Rams have Ndamukong Suh to counter. If Belichick takes Todd Gurley out, Sean McVay has C.J. Anderson. If New England shades a safety over Brandin Cooks, Goff still has Robert Woods to target.

The Patriots are better on defense than they were when they lost to the Eagles a year ago, and they have a better ground game with Sony Michel. But Rob Gronkowski doesn’t scare anymore and Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips isn’t the Chiefs' Bob Sutton. He’ll find a way to keep Julian Edelman in check. I think it’ll be a close game and the team with the ball last will win.

Prediction: Rams 31, Patriots 30

As well as Nick Foles and Tom Brady played in the Super Bowl one year ago, what cannot be forgotten was that there was only sack that night — and it decided the game for the Eagles.

The quarterbacks are getting the attention this week, but this game will be determined at the line of scrimmage. That’s what gave the Eagles the edge over the Patriots last February, and that’s what gave the Eagles the edge over the Rams in December. It’s a challenge to block that Rams’ defensive front — especially with the way Dante Fowler has come on to give the Rams another rusher — but it’s hard not to be impressed with the Patriots’ offensive line right now. They’re keeping Tom Brady upright and opening lanes for a versatile running game. If the line plays the way it did in Kansas City, the Patriots will win this game. If Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh, and Fowler live in the Patriots backfield, it will not be a fun night for New England.

The Rams have so much talent, and Todd Gurley gives the Rams a gear they didn’t use in the NFC championship game. But how well will they protect Jared Goff? Pay attention to Gurley’s role as a pass catcher, because that’s one mismatch the Rams can use effectively to attack New England.

I’m expecting a close game. I could write that the team that has the ball last will win, but I wrote that last year and Brandon Graham sacked Brady to keep Brady from going on a game-winning drive. Maybe the Rams can do that this season, but I wouldn’t put my money on it.

Prediction: Patriots 30, Rams 27