Eagles at Packers in Week 10: Here are the numbers that matter
The Eagles will renew acquaintances with an opponent that is readily familiar.
The Eagles and Packers meet again Monday, for the third time since the start of last season. This time, though, the Packers get to host the Eagles at Lambeau Field in Green Bay after the teams played in Brazil to open the 2024 season and then again at Lincoln Financial Field in a wild-card playoff game.
The Eagles won both of those meetings.
Monday’s matchup is between two of the best teams in the NFC. The Eagles are coming off their bye week; the Packers dropped a home game as 13-point favorites to the Carolina Panthers.
» READ MORE: What we know (and don’t) about the Eagles entering Week 10 against the Packers
Green Bay is dealing with some injuries, most notably to tight end Tucker Kraft, who is out for the rest of the season. The Eagles are well-rested and made some additions at the trade deadline while the Packers stood pat.
Who has the edge Monday? Here’s a look at some numbers and trends that could be important:
150.3
Just how important was Kraft to the Packers? He led the team in receiving yards (489) and was second in targets (42) and receptions (32).
He had been Jordan Love’s most reliable target, and Love had a 150.3 passer rating when targeting him this season entering Sunday’s game against Carolina, when Kraft suffered a torn ACL.
That rating was the highest by a quarterback-receiver duo in the NFL this season on a minimum of 40 attempts, according to Next Gen Stats.
Luke Musgrave, a second-round pick in 2023, is up next on the depth chart. He has been used infrequently this season and has just 10 targets. The Packers’ passing game will need to change course without Kraft. Christian Watson is back, and the Packers have more options for Love to throw to at wide receiver, but Kraft was a big presence.
9.1
Kraft was especially impactful when the Packers faced man coverage.
Love has generated 9.1 yards per attempt against man coverage this season, the second-highest mark in the NFL, according to Next Gen. He has 11 touchdowns against man, tied for third, and his passer rating against man (122.0) is the fifth-best in the league.
Where does Kraft come into play? He accounted for 43.8% of the Packers’ receiving yards and five of their 11 touchdowns against man coverage, according to Next Gen.
The Eagles have played man coverage on 35.4% of drop backs this season, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. They are allowing 5.6 yards per attempt, the eighth-fewest, and have allowed just three touchdowns (while intercepting three passes). They have a league-low 68.5 passer-rating-allowed in man coverage.
Will Vic Fangio deploy even more man coverage Monday?
52.7%
DeVonta Smith is having an outstanding season with the Eagles, and he has been his usual, versatile inside-out presence in the passing offense. Of his 588 receiving yards, 219 have come while lined up in the slot, and according to Next Gen, 52.7% of the Eagles’ slot targets have gone Smith’s way.
Why mention this ahead of Eagles-Packers? Another Green Bay injury.
Cornerback Nate Hobbs is out with a knee injury. The Packers have liked using Hobbs as a situational nickel to spell normal nickel Javon Bullard in obvious passing situations. Bullard was exploited a few times in the passing game early in the season, but he has bounced back to put up better coverage numbers as the season has gone on.
The Eagles, though, have the ability to test Bullard’s pass coverage chops with different looks. The Packers, with Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine, have also been pretty average covering out wide. According to Next Gen, Green Bay has allowed 930 yards to receivers aligned wide, the 11th-highest total in the NFL, and 7.8 yards per target.
The Eagles’ running game got back on track in Week 8 against the New York Giants. This could be a day for the passing game to be featured.
0
The passing game can thrive as long as the Eagles can handle Micah Parsons. The Panthers certainly did. For the first time in his NFL career, Parsons was held to zero quarterback pressures in a game this past Sunday.
He entered Week 9 with an NFL-high 44 pressures and a pressure rate of 19.7%, the third-highest rate in the NFL among edge rushers with at least 100 pass rushes.
Carolina double-teamed Parsons on six of his 21 pass rushes, according to Next Gen, his second-highest double-team rate (28.6%) of the season.
The Eagles have handled top-tier rushers pretty well this season. They have already faced four of the players in the top 10 in quarterback pressures, one of them twice. Denver’s Nik Bonitto is the only one of the four to get home against Jalen Hurts. The Eagles held Denver’s Jonathan Cooper to just one pressure in the same game. They held Kansas City’s George Karlaftis to two pressures in Week 2.
The Giants’ Abdul Carter had just five pressures across his two contests with the Eagles.
» READ MORE: Week 10 NFL power rankings roundup: Eagles move up (a lot) despite not playing a game
94.7%
We’ve been tracking the Eagles’ playoff odds in this space every week, and we’ll continue that this week. The Eagles’ playoff chances have jumped from 59.8% heading into the Minnesota game in Week 7 to 94.7% this week, according to FTN Fantasy.
The two wins that bumped the Eagles’ record from 4-2 to 6-2 helped, but so has the rest of the NFC East’s struggles.
The Eagles now own a three-game lead in the win column over Dallas and Washington. The Birds are the only one of the four teams to not yet play a ninth game.
It was 2004 when an NFC East team last won consecutive division titles. The wait for another back-to-back winner looks like it’s going to end soon.