Eagles vs. Lions in Week 11: Here are the numbers that matter
A.J. Brown's statistical history against man defenses like the one employed by the Lions could make the receiver happy on Sunday night.
The Eagles and Detroit Lions meet Sunday night in a prime-time game that football fans probably won’t mind seeing again in late January to decide which NFC team goes to the Super Bowl.
In that regard, Sunday’s result could go a long way in determining who gets home-field advantage in any hypothetical playoff showdown.
Here’s a look at some numbers and trends that will be a big part of Sunday’s game:
38.5% … 2.9
The Lions have one of the sport’s premier defensive players in edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. The 25-year-old, who was the second pick in the 2022 draft, is tied with Micah Parsons at 48 pressures this season, ranking second in the NFL. In part because of Hutchinson, Detroit’s pressure rate of 38.5% is the fifth-highest in the NFL.
But the Lions’ success in the pass rushing department is multilayered. Detroit is pretty good in coverage, too, and its pressures aren’t normally quick. Detroit’s average time to pressure is 2.9 seconds, the second-longest in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. The Lions’ average time to sack ranks 31st in the NFL at 5.16 seconds.
The Eagles have done a decent job protecting Jalen Hurts despite having some moving parts at times up front. Hurts, according to Next Gen, has been pressured in an average of 2.83 seconds this season, the 10th-longest among qualified quarterbacks. His average time to sack (5.36 seconds) is the fourth-longest in the league.
The Eagles may look to dial up quick throws to try to limit Hutchinson’s impact. They’re coming off a game in which Parsons didn’t sack Hurts but was plenty disruptive with seven total pressures.
Hutchinson missed practice with an elbow injury Wednesday but told reporters it was “nothing to worry about.”
» READ MORE: What we know (and don’t) about the Eagles entering Week 11 vs. the Lions
4.46%
Late last season, on the day the All-Pro teams were announced, a printed piece of paper was posted next to Lane Johnson’s locker stall. It showed his Pro Football Focus numbers next to those of Lions right tackle Penei Sewell. Johnson’s numbers were better, but it was Sewell who got the first-team All-Pro nod and not Johnson.
Sewell, though, is having an even better 2025 season. He has allowed just 13 pressures across 291 pass blocking snaps, according to Next Gen, and his 4.46% pressure rate allowed is the lowest of his five-season NFL career.
The Eagles’ new-look pass rush had a big game Monday night in Green Bay, but they will need to rely on pressuring up the middle or on the left side based on Sewell’s success rate this season.
Jaelan Phillips, who had seven pressures in his Eagles debut Monday, played against Sewell with Miami in 2022. Phillips tallied one pressure on three pass rushes against Sewell in that contest. Three years have brought changes for both players, but that matchup will be a fun one to watch however often it happens Sunday night.
42.6%
Quinyon Mitchell is becoming one of the premier outside cornerbacks in the NFL, but the Lions’ top target, Amon-Ra St. Brown, will see a lot of people not named Mitchell during his routes Sunday.
St. Brown, according to PFF, lines up 42.6% of the time in the slot, and the Eagles like to leave Mitchell on the outside.
That means Cooper DeJean may draw St. Brown on some snaps, and the Eagles probably will be fine with that considering DeJean is among the better nickel players in the NFL.
How might the Eagles approach their matchups? In Week 1 against Dallas, they chose to have Mitchell mostly match up with George Pickens while the roving CeeDee Lamb was handled (to varying degrees of success) by others. Maybe Mitchell tries to eliminate Jameson Williams outside. Maybe he travels with St. Brown, and they pass coverage off. Maybe they play more zone.
Regardless of the approach, St. Brown will be top of mind when it comes to the game plan for stopping Detroit’s passing game.
» READ MORE: The Eagles aren’t perfect, but they are pretty great. If only everyone around here could learn to enjoy it.
12.9%
No one misses fewer tackles than the Lions, who rank first in the NFL with a missed-tackle rate of 8.2% this season, according to Next Gen.
It might be another tough night on the ground for Saquon Barkley. On designed runs, the Lions miss tackles at a rate of just 12.9%, second-lowest in the NFL. They are the only team in the NFL to allow fewer than 100 yards on the ground after missed tackles, according to Next Gen.
Barkley hasn’t been able to force misses at a high rate this season. According to Next Gen, he has forced a missed tackle on just 19.5% of his rushes this season, seventh-lowest among running backs with at least 50 carries.
43.9%
Will the Eagles force Detroit out of its comfort zone?
The Lions deploy man coverage defensively on a league-high 43.9% of drop backs. During those man snaps, Detroit has allowed the 10th-fewest yards per play (4.9) and fourth-lowest success rate (36.7%), according to Next Gen.
Maybe A.J. Brown’s next breakout game is only a few days away. The Eagles have thrived against man coverage. Hurts has the second-most yards per attempt (9.1) and seventh-highest completion rate (63.4%) while throwing for the second-most touchdowns (13) to just one interception against man coverage, according to Next Gen.
Brown has been a big part of the Eagles’ attack when they face man coverage. He has generated 3.9 yards per route against man coverage this season, according to Next Gen, which ranks third among any player to have run at least 50 routes against man, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4.2) and Tucker Kraft (5.0).
Brown has caught 14 of 21 targets against man for 236 yards and three touchdowns. He is tied for fifth in the NFL with Puka Nacua in yards vs. man. But it’s been different when facing zone, where Brown has hauled in just 17 of 33 targets for 172 yards (1.0 yards per route).
According to Next Gen, his decrease of 2.9 yards per route when facing zone vs. facing man is the largest decrease among any wide receiver to run at least 50 routes against both coverages this season.
Detroit deploying more zone than it likes could be the catalyst behind Brown’s next social media or livestream comments.