Grading the Flyers so far: Special teams have soared but offense can’t get off the ground

DALLAS — After splitting a two-game road trip, the Flyers have played 18 games.

It’s a smidge shy of the quarter mark, but a good time to assess things, with the team having a few days off before the schedule kicks into high gear and they play almost every other day until the annual holiday break in December.

How are they feeling overall with a 9-6-3 record? “There’s a lot of positives to take away from it,” defenseman Travis Sanheim said. “We’re still learning as a group and trying to grow as a team and get better. And I like the attitude of our team and where it’s headed.”

Since they’re learning, let’s go to school and hand out a quarter-season report card.

Let’s start with the best grade because so far, special teams have been, well, quite special. Assistant coach Todd Reirden and the penalty kill are tied for No. 3 in the NHL with the Tampa Bay Lightning (87.5%). Assistant coaches Jaroslav “Yogi” Svejkovský and Jay Varady run a power play that has jumped from the NHL’s basement to 17th overall (19.6%).

Can the power play be even better? Definitely, and a lot of it has to do with reuniting Cam York and Trevor Zegras and the other unit keeping things simple.

» READ MORE: The Flyers’ power play has improved from previous years. Trevor Zegras is a big reason why.

Penalty kill-wise, although it’s not a power kill, it is shutting down the opposition. Yes, the Flyers allowed a Jason Robertson power-play goal on Saturday night in Dallas — and the Stars entered the night with the second-best power play — but it was the first one they’ve allowed since giving the Montreal Canadiens a pair on Nov. 4.

The Flyers killed off eight straight penalties and have allowed a power-play goal in just six of the 18 games. And it’s not just the usual suspects among the forwards, like Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny, Noah Cates, and Garnet Hathaway, keeping guys like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers off the board. Owen Tippett, Tyson Foerster, and Christian Dvorak are chipping in, too.

Flyers coach Rick Tocchet’s philosophy of not worrying too much about how many shots the opposition puts up, as long as they’re kept to the outside and the goalies can see them, makes sense. But getting pinned in your own end can be draining — mentally and physically.

He also wants his team to start better. The Flyers have trailed in 12 of 18 games, including the last five, forcing them to chase the game pretty quickly.

“To defend well, you have to anticipate, you’ve got to get inside on somebody, and you’ve got to be willing to get in there,” Tocchet said after the Flyers lost to Dallas, 5-1. “For some reason, at the start of the game, we’re not in that situation. So we’ve got to figure [out] ways to do it. We’ve got some practice time here, and we’re going to have to really work on some two-on-two and three-on-three battles.”

The good news is that despite spending 41.6% of games in their own end (the league average is 41.1%), the Flyers are averaging the second-fewest shots on goal (25.2). It plays a big role in why they rank 10th in the NHL with 2.83 goals allowed per game.

A lot of that success is thanks to Dan Vladař, who, despite allowing five goals to the Stars on Saturday, has been stellar between the pipes, allowing 26 goals on 287 shots. He is tied for fifth in the NHL (among goalies who have played at least 10 games) in goals-against average (2.42) and is eighth in save percentage (.909) with a 6-4-1 record.

If we were giving a grade for goaltending alone, Vladař would get a high one, but he is part of a tandem, and Sam Ersson has struggled. The Swede will tell you he only cares about wins — and he is 3-1-2 and has earned at least a point in his last four starts (3-0-1) — but right now he has a 3.30 GAA and .846 save percentage.

Money Puck has 47 goalies with at least six games under their belts this year. Vladař ranks No. 1 in high-danger unblocked shot attempt save percentage (0.947), and Ersson is 18th (0.813). But what is troubling is that Ersson’s Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAE) is -4.6 (fifth-worst); Vladař’s is 6.1 (13th). Money Puck describes GSAE as expected goals against minus the actual number of goals the goalie has let in, with a positive number meaning he is stopping more goals than an average goalie would.

» READ MORE: Flyers trounced by Dallas Stars in the second night of a back-to-back

It should also be noted that Nick Seeler and Jamie Drysdale have been the best pairing defensively, with Money Puck listing the duo as the ninth best when it comes to expected goals against (8.3), among pairings who have played 175 minutes together.

And although Natural Stat Trick has them down for being on the ice when the Flyers have allowed 13 goals at five-on-five but scored seven, they do have the 15th-best Corsi For percentage (52.39%). They also have allowed the sixth-fewest high-danger chances (30).

“Pretty good. We’re still building,” Couturier, the team captain, said when asked to assess this group. “We’re still getting familiar with the systems, new coaching staff, and all that stuff. I think we’re in a place where I don’t think many people thought we’d be at this time of the year. So, at the same time, we can’t be satisfied. We’ve got to keep pushing each other and push ourselves to the next level. But yeah, it’s been a good start.”

Woof. Don’t let the five-goal outburst on Friday fool you; the Flyers offense has stalled. They’ve scored the second-fewest goals in the NHL (47) and are averaging the fourth-fewest goals per game (2.61). That number didn’t plummet, but it’s still a decline from last season when they finished 24th (2.83).

The big question is why, considering they have players who have proved they can score at least 20 goals a season. Could it be because they have the seventh-fewest shots on goal (27.0), which makes sense considering NHL Edge has the Flyers below the league average in time spent in the offensive zone (40.8%)?

All the numbers stated so far are related to all strengths. Let’s focus on five-on-five, where things have been dreadful.

“I like our play without the puck. Usually that’s the hardest thing, that takes a lot longer, and I think they’re grasping and we’re still a work in progress,” Tocchet told The Inquirer on Friday when asked how he would assess his team. “Now, we’ve got to figure out a way offensively to get more shots and convert our chances. I think we’ve missed the net quite a bit, and when we have our chances, but that’ll come, and it’s just a matter of sticking with the program.”

According to Money Puck, the Flyers have the third-worst expected goals for (33.05). What is an expected goal? The site’s glossary explains it as “the chance of an unblocked shot attempt being a goal,” while adding they may give a rebound shot in the slot 50% chance of going in (0.5 expected goals) and a shot from the blue line while shorthanded 0.01 expected goals.

Back are the one-and-dones mentioned so often last season. The Flyers are not driving down the middle or to the net, and Money Puck has them with only 25 high-danger chances, which have equal to or greater than 20% probability of going in, and just two goals scored via rebounds.

The program right now is glitchy. At times it works — Zegras has 19 points in 18 games, and he is tied with his linemates Tippett and Dvorak for the team lead in goals (six) — but most of the time it doesn’t.

Once one of the NHL’s best transition teams, the Flyers have seen that dry up a bit as Tocchet focuses on a heavy dump-and-chase system. But you cannot blame it all on that. When the Flyers are cooking, they get to the front, screen goalies, and use the boards to create time and space to walk out in front — a la Matvei Michkov’s goal last weekend against the Ottawa Senators. It’s inconsistent.

“A lot of offense comes in a lot of individual moments — you have a two-on-one, or somebody’s got a shot in the slot. Can you convert on them? That’s one thing we’ve got to get better at,” Tocchet said. “But also, I think, we still are a work in progress, but we’d like to play interior more. It’s a hard game to play interior, and we’re doing it better, but we still have to arrive at the net with two at the net.”

How can they up their grade?

“We’ve got to put a full 60 [minutes],” Cates said. “I think we can take on a lot of teams if we do a full 60, support each other.”

That and be consistent, drive to the net, take more shots — because they’re still passing up opportunities to just put pucks on net — and play in the dirty areas. Several players also need to step up their games, and, food for thought, maybe it’s time to call up Alex Bump from Lehigh Valley of the American Hockey League. He entered Sunday with 13 points in 14 games and eight in his last four.