Flyers vs. Hurricanes: Key matchups, X-factors, and predictions for the second-round playoff series

Beginning on Saturday night, the Flyers and Carolina Hurricanes will meet in the Stanley Cup playoffs for the first time.

But don’t confuse that anomaly for unfamiliarity, as the Hurricanes have several players, coaches, and front-office personnel with ties to the Flyers and Philadelphia, headlined by general manager Eric Tulsky, head coach Rod Brind’Amour, and players Nic Deslauriers, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Sean Walker.

» READ MORE: Flyers embracing the quick turnaround as they head to Carolina for Game 1: ‘Let’s get right back at it.’

Though the Hurricanes, opening the series at home as the Eastern Conference’s top seed, are big favorites, the Flyers may be the hottest team in hockey with a 22-9-1 record, including playoffs, since the restart after the Olympic break.

So who will advance to the conference finals? We had our Jackie Spiegel and Gabriela Carroll go to the tale of the tape to break down the key matchups and decide who has the edge in each category:

This could be a pretty even matchup, as the Flyers and Hurricanes averaged 2.67 and 2.75 goals in the first round, which, entering Friday, ranks ninth and 10th, respectively. The Hurricanes will put a ton of shots on goal, including from low-danger areas, but that doesn’t mean they always go in.

Despite averaging over 33 shots against the Ottawa Senators, they found the back of the net just 8.1% of the time, with only five players pocketing goals. Logan Stankoven led the way with four goals, Sebastian Aho added three, and veteran Taylor Hall chipped in seven points. The Flyers shot 10.3% but had 14 different players score a goal, showcasing a balanced lineup that could create some imbalance for Carolina as they try to match. ― Jackie Spiegel

Edge: Hurricanes

The Flyers have been very stingy defensively this year, especially since the Olympic break, and a tight lockdown defense has always been a hallmark of Brind’Amour’s system in Carolina. The Hurricanes allowed the fewest chances against and the fewest shots against of any NHL team in the regular season, per Natural Stat Trick. The Flyers ranked fourth in fewest shots allowed, but did allow fewer high-danger chances than Carolina, so though the Canes are better at limiting shots, the shots they do allow are quality ones.

Carolina’s top pair of Jaccob Slavin, one of the NHL’s best defensive defensemen, and Jalen Chatfield, is elite, but the pairing of Walker and K’Andre Miller has been even better this year, with a 57.41 expected-goals percentage.

The Hurricanes may have the longer track record as a defensive stalwart, but the Flyers are shutting down plays at an extremely high level right now, led by Travis Sanheim and Rasmus Ristolainen, and that makes this one too close to call. ― Gabriela Carroll

Edge: Push

What more can be said about the Flyers’ Dan Vladař? He has a 1.61 goals-against average, .937 save percentage, and two shutouts through his first six playoff starts. He has had some blips, but is, overall, a wall in net.

The questions instead swirl around Carolina’s Frederik Andersen, which seems to always be the case in the postseason for the oft-injured goalie. Andersen was great in the first round, posting a league-best 1.10 GAA and .955 save percentage; however, he does have the dark clouds of postseason pasts looming over him. Last season, he had an .838 save percentage in a five-game defeat in the conference finals to Florida, which came after four first-round exits with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Andersen has faced a ton of pressure in his career. Can he now handle it on a team trying to finally make a Stanley Cup Final? ― Jackie Spiegel

Edge: Flyers

» READ MORE: Two lessons the Flyers can carry into their second-round series with the Carolina Hurricanes

For the most part, the Flyers’ penalty kill performed exceptionally well against Pittsburgh’s star-studded power play, allowing just three power play goals on 19 opportunities. The penalty kill, led by Sean Couturier, was also extremely dangerous when shorthanded, scoring a goal and generating several other chances throughout the series.

Carolina’s power play converted at just a 13.3% clip in four games against Ottawa and goalie Linus Ullmark, but ranked fourth in the league in the regular season, converting 24.9% of their chances.

The less said about the Flyers’ power play the better. It was the league’s worst in the regular season at 15.7% and is at 11.8% in the postseason, and it hasn’t looked particularly competitive. Carolina was relentless against Ottawa in the first round, killing all but one of 21 power-play chances, including three five-on-threes in Game 4 of the sweep. ― Gabriela Carroll

Edge: Hurricanes

In the first round, Rick Tocchet had the experience edge against Pittsburgh Penguins coach Dan Muse. This time, it’s not as crystal clear.

Hurricanes coach Brind’Amour has served as bench boss for more than three times the playoff games as Tocchet, but they have comparable winning percentages, with Tocchet at .536 (15-13) and Brind’Amour at .548 (51-42).

Tocchet holds the upper hand with going the distance, having advanced to five Stanley Cup finals and winning three Stanley Cups, two as an assistant coach. Brind’Amour has one Cup in three trips to the ultimate round as a player; however, as a coach, he has never made it to the Cup Finals, despite eight straight playoff appearances and three conference finals.

While it seems pretty much a push, the two things that could help Tocchet are the ghosts of playoffs past for Brind’Amour and his fearlessness with in-game and game-to-game adjustments. ― Jackie Spiegel

Edge: Push

Travis Konecny. The alternate captain led the Flyers in points for the fifth straight season, and sixth in seven, and quietly tied for second on the team in Round 1 with four points (one goal, three assists). But he made a lot of noise in Game 6, especially in overtime when he came out like a gangbuster. ― Jackie Spiegel

“I was just thinking, let’s get this done. I was just excited to get it rolling,” he said. Konecny has 12 goals and 25 points in 34 games against the Hurricanes — his fourth-most goals against any team — and had three assists in four games this season. He likes playing Carolina and also has a point to make while facing off against Seth Jarvis, who plays a similar style and has often been tapped by Hockey Canada above him.

» READ MORE: A Newtown man caught the stick from Cam York’s OT winner. On Friday, he returned it to the Flyers defenseman

Trevor Zegras and Owen Tippett: Zegras showed flashes of the playmaker he can be against Pittsburgh, but aside from a few headline moments, his line with Tippett didn’t perform to the level they are capable of. Tippet and Zegras are two of the Flyers’ fastest forwards and best puck handlers, and Tippett, while relentlessly shooting the puck against Pittsburgh, failed to score at 5-on-5. Tocchet switched to Denver Barkey, Porter Martone, and Tyson Foerster on that line, and no one stuck. ― Gabriela Carroll

Spiegel: Hurricanes in 7

I’ve gone back and forth on this one as the Flyers are rolling, and a team this tight is hard to beat. Having said that, the Hurricanes are a different beast than the Penguins and are just too quick and skilled. They were built for a Cup run after years of disappointment and look like a team driving toward a spot in the Finals. Philly will give them a really good run with their physical game, but it feels as though the tank will empty here.

Carroll: Hurricanes in 5.

The Flyers haven’t been able to solve Carolina for years. Even while peaking for the playoff clincher, the Flyers needed a shootout to squeak out a win over Carolina without most of their stars. The Flyers really struggled with the Penguins’ forecheck in the latter half of their first-round series at 5-on-5, and their power play for the most part remained ineffective. Vladař has the ability to steal one as he did in Game 6, but against a relentless forechecking team like Carolina, the Flyers are likely to struggle.