2023 Grammys: Winner predictions, Philly ties, and more
Beyoncé leads the way with 9 nominations and her 'Renaissance' will face off against Adele's '30' on Sunday's telecast.
Justice for Beyoncé!
That’s the likely theme for the 2023 Grammy Awards when they’re presented at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles in a ceremony hosted by Trevor Noah at 8 p.m. Sunday that will broadcast on CBS and stream on Paramount+.
And what wrong has been done to Queen Bey? She’s been nominated 88 times, a record she shares with her husband, Jay-Z, and won 28 trophies, tied for second with Quincy Jones, three behind classical conductor George Solti.
All true. But Beyoncé — whose Renaissance World Tour will play Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia on July 12 — has never won the most prestigious Grammy, album of the year, losing to Taylor Swift, Beck, and Adele.
It’s a familiar scene: Beyoncé loses and another superstar gets on stage and says she should have won.
Will that happen again Sunday, when Beyoncé leads the way with nine nominations? (Kendrick Lamar has eight, and Adele and Brandi Carlile, seven each.)
Not if the Grammys can do the right thing in the category in which Renaissance, Beyoncé’s celebration of Black queer dance music culture, goes up against Adele’s powerhouse divorce chronicle 30.
However, it’s not simply a Beyoncé vs. Adele rematch.
The eight other nominees are ABBA, Mary J. Blige, Coldplay, Harry Styles, Lizzo, Lamar, Carlile, and Bad Bunny. Bad Bunny is up for only one major award for Un Verano Sin Ti despite being the most streamed artist in the world. Styles’ Harry’s House seems a particularly palatable soft-rock safe choice that appeals to Grammy voters.
My vote goes to Rosalía’s Motomami which, in a sign of Grammy cluelessness, is nominated for only two minor awards.
» READ MORE: The best pop music albums of 2022
But Beyoncé’s dance floor manifesto is clearly the class of this category. 30, which actually came out in 2021, feels like last year’s story. And Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers is compelling, but not Lamar’s best work.
Giving the biggest prize to Beyoncé is the obvious move. It gives the Grammys an opportunity to correct past wrongs and end the night on a credible note.
Does it even matter who wins?
The conventional wisdom about the Grammys is that the real beneficiaries of the show aren’t the winners so much as the acts that gain exposure performing on the show.
That thinking has been tested as the network TV audience has shrunk. Last year’s telecast reached 8.93 million Americans, the second smallest audience ever. Big stars like the Weeknd have declined to even submit their work for Grammy consideration.
Still, big names will perform at a show that plays like a concert, with awards handed out in between. Bad Bunny, Lizzo, Styles, Carlile, Sam Smith with Kim Petras, Blige, Steve Lacy, and country star Luke Combs are on the schedule.
What about the other big awards?
Besides best album, the three other major awards are record and song of the year (a songwriter’s award), and best new artist.
A complete list of nominees is at Grammy.com.
Record of the year contenders include Beyoncé, “Break My Soul;” Adele, “Easy On Me;” Lamar, “The Heart Part 5;” Lacy, “Bad Habit;” Styles’ “As It Was;” and Lizzo’s “About Damn Time.” My soft spot is for Lacy, the alt-R&B guitarist who scored an irresistible left field hit. He should win, but “Break My Soul” will.
Many of the same big names appear for song of the year, with three intriguing additions. Taylor Swift is up for the 10-minute version of “All Too Well,” her song about a never returned scarf on her re-recorded version of her 2012 album Red.
Bonnie Raitt’s “Just like That” is a moving story about a woman who meets a man who received a transplanted heart from her late son. (It’s also the only song in the category to be written by a single writer.) And DJ Khaled’s “God Did” contains an intricate four minute Jay-Z verse that dazzles.
Lamar’s complex “The Heart” should win. “All Too Well” will.
The best new artist race feels wide open. The not household name nominees are: Brazilian pop singer Anitta, retro-soul singer Omar Apollo, jazz duo DOMi & JD Beck, songwriter turned pop star Muni Long, jazz vocalist Samara Joy, Atlanta rapper Latto, Italian glam-rock band Mâneskin, Houston rapper Tobe Nwigwe, bluegrass musician Molly Tuttle, and Isle of Wight indie duo Wet Leg.
One name egregiously missing is Zach Bryan, the breakout Oklahoma country star now based in Philadelphia. But he has only one nomination, for country solo performance for “Something In The Orange.”
I’m going with an underdog in Samara Joy, the 23-year-old jazz classicist who evokes Sarah Vaughn. She’s the kind of artist that Grammy voters favor: a young artist who makes music that honors the past.
Where does Philly fit in?
Philly will be represented during the show by Questlove, who’s putting together a segment on the 50th anniversary of hip-hop — commemorating Kool Herc’s 1973 dance party in the Bronx. The Roots drummer, who promises it will feature “some of the biggest names in the genre,” is nominated for his Music Is History for best audio book.
Lots of Philly musicians are Grammy-nominated, but will compete in the pre-telecast ceremony, which begins streaming on live.grammy.com at 3:30 p.m.
Among the Philly hopefuls: bassist Adam Blackstone, who’s up for traditional R&B performance with Jazmine Sullivan for “Round Midnight.” Sullivan is also nominated for best R&B song and performance for “Hurt Me So Good.”
The War on Drugs, who won best rock album in 2018, are up for best rock song this year for “Harmonia’s Dream” from their 2021 album I Don’t Live Here Anymore.
Other Philly-connected nominees include Philadelphia-born songwriter-producer Pop Wansel and jazz duo the Baylor Project, for two awards. Bassist Christian McBride and Camden gospel singer Tye Tribbett are also nominated. Drexel professor Ryan Schwabe is nominated for best engineered album, nonclassical, for Adolescence, by Baynk.
Philadelphia orchestra conductor Yannick Nézet-Séguin looks poised to win big. He has two nominations in the best opera recording category, one in classical solo vocal album, one in classical compendium, and one for best choral performance (as does Philadelphia choir the Crossing.) Curtis Institute-based Dover Quartet, string trio Time for Three, and composer Kevin Puts are also nominated.