NATO allies grapple with U.S. pullback, confusion over its military plans

HELSINGBORG, Sweden — NATO allies are bracing for the United States to reduce the forces it provides in case of an attack, European officials said, as the Trump administration takes substantial steps to pull back the expansive U.S. military footprint on the continent.

The plans for U.S. troop presence in Europe, muddled by seemingly countervailing announcements from President Donald Trump, were top of the agenda Friday as Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with NATO foreign ministers in Sweden.

On the eve of the NATO gathering here, Trump said in a post to Truth Social that the United States would send “an additional 5,000 troops” to Poland. That is the same number the administration had said it would pull back from Germany, as Trump grew frustrated with European leaders’ hesitation to more directly join the war against Iran.

Rubio told reporters Friday that reassessment of the military presence in Europe preceded tensions over Iran and would continue as the U.S. examines its global posture.

“That work was already ongoing, and it’s been done in coordination with our allies. I’m not saying they’re going to be thrilled about it, but they certainly are aware of it,” Rubio said. “I think there’s broad recognition that there are eventually going to be less U.S. troops in Europe.”

He also said Trump’s “disappointment” with European leaders over Iran would “have to be addressed.”

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte welcomed Trump’s post on Poland and said it does not change U.S. plans to shrink its military presence in Europe.

“Let’s be clear,” he said, “we will over time, step by step, be less reliant on one ally only, which is the United States,” while the Europeans “step up more.”

European officials have downplayed the U.S. moves, saying that they expect a gradual U.S. military drawdown, and that a few thousand troops will have little impact.

But the Europeans have also sought to persuade Washington for months that any withdrawal should be coordinated, giving NATO allies the time to backfill gaps and ensure the continent is not left exposed.

That ambition is clashing with the reality of Trump’s approach to long-standing alliances. Last month, the president announced on social media that the U.S. would withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany, as Trump berated European leaders for not endorsing the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

That decision came as Trump clashed with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who said Tehran had “humiliated” Washington in the war.

The Pentagon later abruptly decided to withdraw thousands of soldiers from a planned deployment to Poland. The announcements caught allies off guard.

Some European diplomats said they expect Trump’s announcement of a new deployment to Poland would involve redirecting troops from Germany farther east to Poland. Earlier this week, NATO’s top commander, U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, told reporters in Brussels that there would be an overall “5,000 troops coming out of Europe.”

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said Friday that the presence of American troops in Poland, one of the staunchest U.S. allies in Europe, “will be maintained more or less at previous levels.”

Sweden’s Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard said the various U.S. announcements were “confusing indeed, and not always easy to navigate.”

“But we need to continue to focus on what we do and not what everyone else says,” she said. “So we need to continue to invest in our own defense.”

NATO allies are also separately preparing for a change in the NATO Force Model, a system through which the 32 member states identify forces they could activate in the event of an attack or some other major crisis.

Two European diplomats, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive details, said they expect a U.S. decision soon that would shrink its contribution to that pool of forces and assets available to Europe in wartime. Rubio indicated it could arrive in the coming days.

Rutte said talks about the U.S. contribution were ongoing. “But hey, we prepared for this,” he added. “It has to do with the fact that they cannot be everywhere at the same time.”

The scale and timeline of any reduction were not clear, and the exact makeup of those forces is not public. A major decrease could further stoke anxiety about U.S. guarantees that underpin the continent’s security, as European leaders warn of an emboldened Russia next door.

A European official said any U.S. decision was unlikely to withdraw capabilities that only the Pentagon can provide, as opposed to assets that the Europeans have started backfilling, such as troops and tanks.

The U.S. drawdowns announced so far, however, already include scrapping plans for a long-range fires battalion to be stationed in Europe. Long-range strike is a key gap for European militaries, along with air-to-air refueling.

The uncertainties, along with Trump’s NATO bashing and foreign policy gyrations on Russia, have pushed the Western military alliance to a new precipice.

Since the Trump administration took office, the Pentagon has made clear that the U.S. intends to shift resources elsewhere and expects European nations to take charge of their conventional defenses. American officials have offered assurances that the U.S. nuclear arsenal will keep supporting NATO allies.

Foreign ministers also deliberated Friday on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for global oil supply that has been choked off since the United States launched the Iran war. Trump had expressed anger after European capitals rebuffed calls to force open the waterway.

A coalition led by France and Britain has made plans to help secure and demine the Strait, but only if there is a stable ceasefire.

Rubio said he told European counterparts that countries might need a “plan B” if negotiation efforts on the war falter and “Iran refuses to open the” strait. “Someone’s going to have to do something about it,” he said.