Attack on Iran shows Russia losing sway in the Middle East and globally

For Russia, the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was the latest blow to President Vladimir Putin’s network of anti-Western partners, and it exposed Moscow’s diminished influence on the world stage, from the Middle East to Latin America.

Yet amid the dismay over Russia’s inability to challenge President Donald Trump’s global reach, there is hope in the Kremlin that the United States becoming ensnared in a prolonged Middle East campaign would work to Moscow’s favor — above all, in its war on Ukraine, Putin’s top priority.

For about 15 months, Moscow watched idly as three friendly leaders were ousted — in Syria, Venezuela, and now Iran, the latter two as a direct result of U.S. military action.

“It’s clear Russia and China were not able to do anything,” said a Russian academic close to senior Moscow diplomats, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly about the Russian government. “This could impact Moscow’s position in relation to other partners.”

Russian officials have also voiced growing alarm over Trump’s suggestions of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba through economic pressure, but similarly seem to have little ability to do anything.

Still, there are potential benefits Moscow is weighing.

A prolonged focus on Iran and the Middle East could leave Washington with less bandwidth for Ukraine and ramp up pressure on European allies to fill the gap.

Weapons systems, particularly air defenses, could be rerouted to the Middle East and away from Kyiv, which Russia pummels almost nightly.

Perhaps most welcome is that the attacks on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes, including attacks on oil refineries in Persian Gulf nations, have sent oil prices surging at a time when Russia’s wartime budget is under severe strain.

Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin’s special economic envoy, predicted prices would spike beyond $100 per barrel. In a sign Putin was already seeking to leverage climbing energy prices, the Russian president threatened on Wednesday to reroute Russian gas supplies away from Europe.

Russian oil supplies to China and India would not be affected by a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for crude — though analysts cautioned that only a sustained price hike or prolonged disruption of Gulf supplies would provide Moscow with meaningful relief for its war effort in Ukraine.

“It’s clear Russia is interested in a long war that will cause the Strait of Hormuz to be blocked,” said one European official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

The invasion of Ukraine, which has now entered its fifth year, has sapped much of Moscow’s resources and attention, pushing countries once firmly in its orbit — particularly former Soviet republics in the Caucasus and Central Asia — to forge new alliances, with some turning to Turkey, China, the U.S., or the European Union.

One of the starkest testaments to Russia’s limits has come from state television pundits and pro-invasion bloggers, who watched the campaign against Iran since last summer and the swift capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January with a mix of concern and grudging awe.

“They are looking at this very effective campaign, and Russian commentators are emerging to almost suggest — why can’t we, Russia, be like that?” Hanna Notte, a foreign policy expert, said in an analysis for the Kennan Institute. “So almost looking at it with the element of jealousy.”

Senior officials in Ukraine and Europe were quick to suggest that Khamenei’s killing further exposed the limits of Russia’s powers and its inability to defend its friends.

“Putin has lost three of his closest pals in little more than a year. He has also not helped any of them,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said in a post on X. “Russia is not a reliable ally even for those who rely heavily on it. … While Russia is stuck in its senseless war against Ukraine … its influence across the world is dramatically falling.”

Andras Racz, a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Security and Defense, said Russian military thinking put the focus on “one big war” — the war against Ukraine, which subordinated all other allies and considerations.

“Everything else is just collateral damage,” Racz said.

Russia and Iran deepened their relationship during the Syrian civil war, in which Russia intervened by providing air power to support President Bashar al-Assad, while Iran supplied forces through proxy militias. Assad, ousted last year, now lives in Russia.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, ties between Moscow and Tehran grew even closer as they each sought to overcome heavy economic restrictions imposed by the West. Iran came to Moscow’s aid by providing Shahed drone technology, a crucial weapon against Ukraine.

Still, the friendship has always had limits. A 20-year strategic partnership agreement signed by the two countries last year did not include a mutual defense clause that would oblige either party to come to the other’s aid in time of military aggression.

A person familiar with back-channel negotiations between Russia and the U.S. said the Kremlin had indicated to the U.S. during talks over the past year that it would not stand in the way of any American attempts to topple the current Iranian regime.

Khamenei’s killing possibly served as a chilling reminder of Putin’s own potential vulnerability. The Russian leader has expressed outrage over the footage of a mob killing Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi in a 2011 civil war, and was said to be shaken by Gaddafi’s death.

Analysts said the Russian president was likely relying on Russia’s status as a nuclear power as providing the ultimate protection against being targeted in a similar manner.

“Russia can’t do much about the situation, but they are applying it to themselves — they would never admit this, and they probably tell themselves that they are a nuclear state and it would not go down so easily with them,” said Nikita Smagin, an expert on Russian-Iranian relations.

“Nevertheless, they see an authoritarian leader dying in a strike and they are unnerved by the transformation of international norms,” Smagin continued, “where states not only do as they please but can also eliminate a head of state. Russia naturally does not like this.”

Other analysts said Moscow may hope that any regime change in Iran follows a pattern set in Venezuela, where the toppling of Maduro did not produce a clean break with Russia. His successor, Delcy Rodríguez, has maintained ties with Moscow.

“Many believed that the U.S. had set the task of regime change, but as a result the regime remains,” the Russian academic said of the situation in Venezuela. “At least at the current stage it is too early to say that Trump is dismantling Chavism.”

A similar situation has unfolded in Syria, where Russia has fared better than expected in the year since Assad’s fall. Despite losing its most reliable regional ally, Moscow avoided being evicted from its military bases, the new Syrian president has visited Moscow twice, and Russia has preserved enough leverage to remain a player — diminished but hardly eliminated.

“If there is a continuation of the clerical rule or the IRGC will have a more prominent role, I think Russia will be able to preserve its partnership with Iran,” said Notte, the foreign policy analyst, referring to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

“But,” Notte added, “if we see different forces coming to power in Iran, which want to mend ties with the West, or a more pragmatic foreign policy toward the West — and I am not saying this is necessary likely — but this is a scenario that Russia has long feared.”

About a year ago, Putin offered Trump help mediating between the U.S. and Iran, at a time when Moscow was trying to keep Trump engaged in talks with Russia. The offer was rebuked, with Trump saying that he had told Putin to focus on finding an endgame to his own war with Ukraine.

Since the strikes began Saturday, Putin has held a flurry of calls with Gulf leaders — telling King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa of Bahrain that Moscow is “ready to use all opportunities to stabilize the situation” and Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar that Russia hopes Iranian retaliation would spare civilian infrastructure — once again seeming to try to position himself as a potential mediator between Washington and what remains of Iran’s leadership.

“Russia is fairly limited in what it can do,” Notte added. “Russia will try to play a mediator role, but I don’t think Russia would be a main factor here.”