Sports betting: Sharp bettors move NFL preseason line — preseason!
The Raiders were favored by a point in Thursday's Hall of Fame game against the Jaguars. Before long, the line moved to 2.5.
It was around 8:30 our time Tuesday night when the line for the NFL’s preseason opener saw a heavy move. It didn’t reverberate with sports fans much around here who otherwise were fixated on the Phillies and baseball’s trade deadline.
Sharp bettors jumped on the Raiders laying -1 to Jacksonville. Vegas sportsbooks responded, with some moving the Raiders as high as -3 for the Thursday night game. As of Thursday morning, the consensus was Raiders -2.5.
“It was sitting around Raiders -1 the whole summer,” said veteran bookmaker Rex Beyers, head of wagering for PlayUp USA, which operates in New Jersey and Colorado. “There are professionals who will [make picks] that may or may not win, but will get the attention of the market. They’re going to make [operators] move the line.”
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The over/under was a minuscule 30.5, which makes the drop from the opening number of 33.5 interesting. Since 2010, the average number of points scored in the NFL’s preseason opener is 28.3, with 40 total points cracked just once. (Dallas beat Miami, 24-20, in 2013.)
“The value of the points are so, so significant at this time of the year,” Beyers added. “The total’s not even at 31, so every half-point matters.”
Jaguars first-year coach and old friend Doug Pederson already had said that starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence and running back Travis Etienne would not play. Hard to imagine Vegas coach Josh McDaniels, also in his first season, playing quarterback Derek Carr very much if at all.
The favorite has covered the closing line in four of the last five Hall of Fame games. The exception was in 2018 when the Ravens, favored by 2.5, beat Chicago, 17-16. It’s the only preseason game in the last five years in which Baltimore has not covered.
DraftKings reported on Thursday that 81% of its spread handle for in the game was on the Raiders and 73% was on the under. The NFL’s hard enough to handicap. Exhibition season would seem to be impossible.
“There are people I know in Costa Rica that only bet the NFL preseason,” Beyers concluded. “That’s all they bet.”
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This & that
Now here’s some strong closing-line value. A Caesars customer put $2,000 on the Padres to win the World Series at 20-1 about an hour before they acquired Washington superstar Juan Soto. The Emperor responded by dropping San Diego’s odds to 8-1. As of Thursday morning, they were down to 15-2.
Another Caesars player put $1,000 on Soto to win National League MVP at 50-1. When the odds dropped to 40-1, that player put another $1,000 down. (Should have just put $2,000 on 50-1, but we digress.) Soto is at 30-1, well back of front-runners Paul Goldschmidt (-125), Austin Riley (+400), and Freddie Freeman (+700).
Four teams have an over/under for college football wins at 10.5 at DraftKings — Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State. At the other end, eight teams have an O/U of just 2.5 wins. Temple, with odds of -140 over, +120 under, is one of those eight. Penn State’s line is 8.5 wins.
And finally
To mark Tom Brady’s 45th birthday on Wednesday, BetMGM’s John Ewing pointed out that Brady’s teams are 54-39-1 against the spread since he turned 40. He’s been the most successful quarterback against the number in that span.
The Buccaneers open at Dallas on Sept. 11. They’re 2-point favorites. Might want to get it before it goes to 3.