The Phillies enter opening day with just one left-handed reliever | Extra Innings

It’s opening day. The Inquirer’s annual Phillies Preview is in print today and online here.

Not only will fans return to Citizens Bank Park, but the season will start on time. Like clockwork, opening day comes every spring. But last year, we didn’t have baseball in April. Or May. Or June. Maybe we all took that clockwork for granted. The weather looks lousy today, but it’s sure nice to have baseball back this spring.

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— Matt Breen (extrainnings@inquirer.com)

There was a time last month where it seemed like the Phillies could start the season with three left-handed pitchers in their bullpen. But then Tony Watson was released and JoJo Romero was optioned to triple A. Jose Alvarado now stands alone.

The Phillies carry eight relievers into opening day, with Alvarado being the lone lefty. They started last season with four left-handers in their 11-man bullpen after rosters expanded to 30 players.

Yes, the bullpen was bigger. But 36 percent of it was left-handed. This season, just 12.5 percent is left-handed.

We know how last year’s bullpen turned out, so perhaps a different approach is warranted. The Phillies are comfortable matching up their right-handed relievers against left-handers hitters, especially since relief pitchers must face at least three batters for a second straight season.

“Our right-handed bullpen people, all in all, many of them get left-handed hitters out really well,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said. “So they have the ability to do that. Some of them have reverse splits if you talk about Bradley, if you talk about Neris, if you talk about Brogdon, even Kintzler has done pretty good against left-handers, and Coonrod has done pretty well. So we didn’t think we needed that specific matchup just to have another lefty because of the ability of our right-handed relievers to get left-handed hitters out also.”

Here’s a look at the numbers the Phillies are seeing:

RHP Archie Bradley vs. left-handed batters in 2020: Allowed a .176 batting average and .428 OPS in 36 plate appearances. The whiff-percentage on his curveball was 2.86 percent against right-handers, but 12.90 percent against left-handers.

RHP Connor Brogdon vs. left-handed batters in September 2020: He retired all 10 left-handed hitters he faced last September after returning from the minor leagues. Brogdon, with a velocity spike, struck out four of those 10 lefties.

RHP Hector Neris vs. left-handed batters in 2019: The Phillies are hopeful Neris can pitch this season the way he did two years ago, which was the best season of the pitcher’s career. It would help if he handled left-handers hitters the way he did in 2019, when they hit just .167 against him with a .596 OPS.

RHP Brandon Kintzler vs. left-handed batters in his career: Kintzler has reverse splits for his career; his numbers are actually better against left-handers. left-handers have hit .233 with a .657 OPS against Kintzler in 778 plate appearances while right-handers have hit .279 with a .726 OPS. But that wasn’t the case last season, when left-handers hit .300 against him with a .871 OPS, and right-handers hit .184 with a .572 OPS.

RHP Sam Coonrod vs. left-handed batters in 2019: Coonrod struggled last season against left-handed hitters, but his numbers were better in 2019 over a larger sample size. Coonrod faced 40 left-handers in 2019 and held them to a .207 average. Last season, 28 left-handed batters hit .304 against him. The Phillies will likely use Coonrod in low-leverage spots, which is how he spent the majority of 2019 and he finished with a 3.58 ERA.

Phillies manager Joe Girardi is looking forward to a new season and hoping for a new NL East champion, Bob Brookover writes.

The Phillies have a new-look bullpen, but Hector Neris returns as the closer. He could use a little more luck in 2021 than he had in 2020.

It isn’t only the youngest generation of Phillies fans that hasn’t witnessed the playoffs up close. It’s a majority of players on the roster, too. Scott Lauber talked to the players who have been to October to see what it takes.

Today: Aaron Nola starts his fourth straight opening day, 3:05 p.m.

Friday: The Phillies are off.

Saturday: Zack Wheeler faces former Phil Charlie Morton, 4:05 p.m.

Sunday: Zach Eflin starts the series finale vs. right-hander Ian Anderson, 1:05 p.m.

Monday: The Phillies open a three-game set with the Mets, 7:05 p.m.

As we get ready for opening day, let’s take a look at some of the predictions for how 2021 will turn out for the Phillies.

FiveThirtyEight.com has the Phillies pegged to finish in fourth place with an 80-82 record. The website, which is popular during election season, gives the Phillies a 23-percent chance to reach the postseason and a 12-percent chance to win the division, which it has the Mets capturing with 85 wins.

FanGraphs also puts the Phillies in fourth place with an 80-82 record. Their simulation gives the Phillies a 16.4-percent chance to reach the postseason and a 5-percent chance to win the division.

And finally, Baseball Prospectus puts the Phillies in third place with 83.4 wins and a 13.4-percent chance to finish in first. Let the games begin.

Send questions by email or on Twitter @matt_breen.

Question: I think the Scott Kingery odyssey is fascinating. I actually think he can still regain the form that fast-tracked him to the majors, but when do you think we’ll see him again? A month? July? When the rosters expand in September? Ever? — Via Sean R. on Twitter.

Answer: Thanks, Sean, for asking Scott Lauber this question on Twitter. I’m stealing it. If all goes well, I think Kingery will be back to the majors by June. The Phillies want him to work on his swing in Allentown with minor-league hitting coordinator Jason Ochart. He can do that for a month before the triple-A season is scheduled to begin in May. In a perfect world, he would then play a month of games for the IronPigs and return to the majors as an everyday player or a utility player. An injury or poor production will likely create an opening sooner rather than later for Kingery to return.