What the bunt? | Extra Innings in Red October

Red October hasn’t looked too good lately for the Phillies. So now they’ll try Blue October as they’re wearing their powder blues for Wednesday’s elimination game. The Phils could be nine innings away from their season ending. Or maybe they just needed to change their uniforms.

Also in this edition:

— Matt Breen (extrainnings@inquirer.com)

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My first reaction last week after watching the Dodgers dismantle the Reds in Game 1 of their wild-card series was that they were going to sweep the Phillies. They were too good and too powerful. So I’m not surprised that the Dodgers have a 2-0 lead. But I am stunned at how it unfolded: two losses at home that should have been wins. And I still can’t believe they bunted.

The Dodgers opened the door for the Phils by not using Roki Sasaki to start the ninth on Monday as Dave Roberts said afterward that he wanted to avoid using the starter-turned-closer twice in three days. That was the time for the Phillies to kick the door open and they nearly did. But then they tried to play for a tie at home in the ninth inning against the defending champions. That’s when they lost the game.

Just like the calculus had to change in Game 1 when they scored three runs vs. Shohei Ohtani, the calculus had to change in Game 2 when the Dodgers tried to complete a save with their troubled bullpen instead of Sasaki. He wasn’t even warming up as he watched the game in the bullpen with his jacket on. The Phils’ best chance to win the game was in that inning. It’s October. Go for it. Win the game.

They instead tried to give up an out and bunt with Bryson Stott, who has the team’s second-best contact rate, and move over Nick Castellanos, one of their worst-graded runners. It was an old-school move that doesn’t work in October when teams win by being aggressive.

The plan — which the Phils stuck too even after the Dodgers showed them their wheel play — predictably backfired and cost them the game.

According to Baseball sabermetrician Tango Tiger, a successful bunt would have actually hurt the Phils’ chance to win the game. The Phils had a 43.8% chance to win when Stott was at-bat and would have had a 41.6% chance to win with Castellanos on third and one out. It’s hard to reason why the Phils did it.

The Phils had a chance against the defending champions. The momentum was on their side, the ballpark was rocking, and an epic finish felt near. They instead played it safe and tried to tie the game instead of going for the win. Imagine the tone entering Game 3 if the Phillies stunned the Dodgers on Monday night. They had their chance. But now they’re one game away from being swept.

👻 Boo: Bryce Harper has no issue with being jeered at home.

📺 What to watch for: Scott Lauber has three story lines for Game 3.

❌ Crusher: Thomson’s bunt call and Dave Dombrowski’s NLDS roster killed the Phillies in Game 2.

💣 Paging Schwarber: The lack of Schwarbombs is killing the Phillies.

⚾ Nola and Suárez: Thomson said he’ll use both in Game 3.

🧛🏻 Fun fact alert: Harrison Bader’s cousin is the bassist in Vampire Weekend.

The focus has been on the lack of production from the Phillies’ marquee names but the Dodgers haven’t received what they expected from theirs either. That could change in Game 3. Ohtani hit 40 of his 55 homers this season against right-handed pitching. The Phillies shut down the likely NL MVP for the first two games of the series but that task becomes much harder with a right-handed starter. The Dodgers jumped over right-hander Hunter Greene — one of the best pitchers in the NL — in Game 1 of their wild-card series starting with Ohtani’s leadoff homer. Dodger Stadium will be electric on Wednesday night.

The decision to bunt. I’m sorry. I can’t get over it. It’s been more than 24 hours and I can’t believe they played for the tie in October against the world champions. If the Phils lose this series, the decision to bunt will be the symbol for how it all ended.

How do the Phillies respond? You have to give the Phils some credit for rallying in the ninth inning and nearly pulling off an all-time postseason win. But how do they come out on Wednesday night? The players said in the clubhouse after that they were moving on and taking it one game at a time. But that could be easier said than done after two heartbreaks. I’m curious to see how they look in Game 3 with their backs against the ropes in one of baseball’s best atmospheres and the wind in their face.

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