The numbers show that the Phillies run of ‘bad luck’ is largely stemming from poor defense
For what it’s worth, the Phillies were tied for 25th in the majors in outs above average (minus-5) but defensively, there's still a great deal of room for improvement
ATLANTA — If there’s a reason to believe the Phillies can recover from their worst 26-game start since 2002, it’s rooted in these incongruous stats:
Phillies pitchers yielded a .356 batting average on balls in play through Friday, the highest in the majors.
Opponents had a 35.8% hard-hit rate against them, second-lowest in the majors.
How do the Phillies reconcile those numbers?
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“I think it’s a lot of bad luck right now,” manager Rob Thomson said. “I do. I’m not making excuses. But what you have to realize is, it is bad luck if you’re a pitcher and keep throwing strikes, attacking hitters, and not try to nibble because you’re trying to stay away from hits when hits are random. You’ve got to create early, soft contact.”
But what if it’s more than bad luck? What if it’s bad defense?
Defensive metrics tend to be unreliable with small early-season samples. But anecdotally, more balls seem to be sliding through the infield. In the Braves’ three-run sixth inning Friday night, shortstop Trea Turner didn’t charge a slow roller, leaving second baseman Bryson Stott to try to make a backhand play and throw across his body on an infield single.
After Brandon Marsh was unable to haul in Michael Harris II’s go-ahead double later in that inning, he mentioned the outfielders were shaded the opposite way.
For what it’s worth, the Phillies were tied for 25th in the majors in outs above average (minus-5) and last in defensive runs saved (minus-16) entering play Saturday night.
Thomson said the Phillies didn’t make changes from last season in how they position infielders and outfielders but said it’s under constant review among the coaching staff and using data provided by the analytics department.
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“We are adjusting,” Thomson said. “Pull-side middle infielder, we’ve adjusted back and forth at times. The depths of our outfield, we’ve adjusted. We’re always looking at it and always playing with it.
“[It’s] random. You go in stretches where guys are standing right there and we’re running into it, and then there are times when the ball gets through, a ball drops, a ball gets into a gap. But you’re always adjusting.”
Realmuto, Duran updates
J.T. Realmuto was “feeling better, Thomson said, after a few days in Philadelphia to treat back spasms, including use of the team’s hyperbaric chamber.
Could Realmuto return Saturday, when he’s eligible to come off the injured list?
“It’s a possibility,” Thomson said. “Yeah.”
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The Phillies don’t expect closer Jhoan Duran to be ready by the 15-day mark of his term on the injured list with a strained oblique muscle in his left side.
Sidelined since April 15, Duran had a scheduled day off in his throwing program and hasn’t progressed to throwing off a mound.
Extra bases
With Zack Wheeler returning from the injured list to start, the Phillies optioned reliever Alex McFarlane to double A one day after calling him up. … Righty reliever Jonathan Bowlan (groin) was slated to begin a minor-league assignment for triple-A Lehigh Valley but got rained out. He will pitch Sunday instead. He’s eligible to be reinstated from the injured list Tuesday. … The Braves honored former manager Brian Snitker by inducting him into the team’s Hall of Fame before the game. Snitker led the Braves to their World Series championship in 2021. ... Aaron Nola (1-2, 5.06 ERA) is scheduled to start the series finale at 1:35 p.m. Sunday against lefty Chris Sale (4-1, 2.79).
