The Phillies can’t afford not to re-sign Kyle Schwarber

What would it mean to keep Kyle Schwarber in a Phillies uniform?

Just look at the names he is likely to pass on the franchise’s all-time home runs list by the end of 2026, his age-33 season.

Sitting at 187 dingers since joining the Phillies, Schwarber likely will pass Bobby Abreu (195) and Dick Allen (204) before the All-Star break. A month or two later, he could pass Jimmy Rollins (216) and Cy Williams (217).

By then, Schwarber will be in striking distance of three of the heaviest hitters in Phillies history, literally and figuratively.

A repeat of Schwarber’s 56 homers in 2025 would leave him in a tie with Klein for fifth place all-time. Only Del Ennis (259) and Pat Burrell (251) would stand between him and Mike Schmidt (548) and Ryan Howard (382).

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You can’t let a guy like that walk away. We know it. The Phillies know it. And, yeah, Schwarber’s agent knows it. Which is why we are here, in early December, on the eve of baseball’s annual winter meetings, still waiting for confirmation that the last of the Schwarbombs has yet to fall on South Philadelphia.

Do not fret, sweet children. Save your angst for the Eagles. The baseball offseason is in its opening laps. The pace car is still on the track. The top of the market has barely begun to percolate. Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, Cody Bellinger … all have yet to agree to terms. All will remain free agents for the foreseeable future. Exactly one position player has signed a multiyear contract. Schwarber and the Phillies are right where we should have expected them to be.

The one big deal to date actually bodes well for the Phillies. Josh Naylor’s five-year, $92.5 million contract with the Mariners suggests that the market won’t grow too outlandish for sluggers at nonpremium positions.

You can argue that Naylor barely qualifies as a slugger, with 88 home runs over the last four seasons. Whatever the semantics, he clearly is in a different power class. But there is some comparability here. Naylor’s 124 OPS+ from 2022 to 2025 is in a similar tier to Schwarber’s 134. He is also four years younger than Schwarber and has a good glove at first base.

The logic goes something like this: The same types of teams that would have interest in a hitter like Schwarber probably would have interest in a hitter like Naylor. If Naylor had signed for six years and $120 million or five years and $110 million, we might be sitting here wondering if it really would be wise for the Phillies to shell out the stupid money it would take to retain Schwarber. The answer probably still would be yes. But it’s nice not to have to consider it.

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It’s fair to assume that the market will look as it has the past several seasons. There is a pretty hard limit on the amount teams are willing to spend on players who don’t add significant value on defense. Besides Juan Soto, the only hitters to sign for more than $95 million over the last three offseasons have played shortstop, center field, or starting pitcher (Shohei Ohtani). The last first baseman or designated hitter to sign for more than five years and $100 million was Freddie Freeman, who landed six years and $162 million from the Dodgers in 2022.

Schwarber can — and should — argue that he is a different case. A typical designated hitter doesn’t finish second in MVP voting. Schwarber’s power and consistency are transcendent enough to disregard positional archetypes. The only hitter with more home runs than his 187 over the last four seasons is Aaron Judge (210). He, Judge, and Ohtani (also at 187) stand alone. In terms of impact on a contender, Schwarber is much closer to Freeman than he is to Naylor. Six years and $150 million is a defensible ask.

The Phillies can argue that Schwarber’s age and positional limitations are legitimate factors. Just look at Pete Alonso, who is pretty close to a carbon copy of Schwarber at the plate. The Mets’ first baseman had to settle for a two-year, $54 million contract last offseason. Not only that, Alonso is on the market again after opting out of his deal. Or, consider Teoscar Hernández, who signed with the Dodgers for three years and $69 million last year. Schwarber is better than Hernández. But is he better than two Hernándezes? For the Phillies, four years and $100 million is a justifiable offer.

Hopefully, we’re just waiting for the two sides to split the difference. Five years and $125 million would be a steep price to pay to lock up the designated hitter position through Schwarber’s age-37 season. But then, Schwarber will be bigger than a 37-year-old designated hitter when that time comes. He will be one of the defining players of an era, one of the franchise’s all-time greats, a fixture in the community and a potential Hall of Famer. He may have passed Howard for second on the franchise home run list. He may be closing in on 500 for his career.

Can the Phillies afford to sign Schwarber?

The better question is whether they can afford not to.