Taking stock of the Phillies’ 8-10 start: What’s worth worrying about (and not), Zack Wheeler’s return, and more
They’re about 11% into their season and preaching patience for their slow start. Let’s dive into some of the issues they face going into a weekend series with the Braves.
The sky is falling.
It’s not, but that’s sure what it felt like on Wednesday night when the Cubs handed the Phillies their fourth series loss of the season with an 11-2 rout. The Phillies’ only series wins have been against the Rockies and Nationals, both teams that came into the season with expectations so low they might as well have been underground.
The Phillies are 18 games in, which calculates to 11% of the season. The team has consistently preached patience about its inconsistent offense, but that seems to be wearing thin among fans. The finale against Chicago saw a lot of the home crowd headed for the exits by the seventh inning.
Elsewhere in the National League East, the Mets are experiencing struggles of their own, sitting in last place as they have lost eight straight. The Braves are holding court at the top, and will come to town on Friday.
Here’s a temperature check before a big series:
It’s way too early to …
Scott Lauber: … panic about Jesús Luzardo. Because although the results through four starts are hideous (20 earned runs, 28 hits in 22⅔ innings for a 7.94 ERA), the stuff still sizzles. After a nine-run, 12-hit shellacking by the Cubs, he insisted he wasn’t tipping pitches, like last May. Maybe it’s pitch selection, he said after throwing more sinkers than usual. Whatever the case, he’s too good not to identify the root cause and fix it.
Lochlahn March: … write off Alec Bohm’s season. Exactly one year ago today, Brandon Marsh’s batting average was an ugly .065. Even after going hitless in all 29 at-bats in April, Marsh managed to dig himself out, turn things around, and put up career numbers over the next five months of the season. Bohm — who is hitting .145 — is a critical piece of the lineup, so it feels more urgent that he figures things out quickly. But his close friend is living proof that sometimes, this is how the game goes.
It’s not too early to …
Lauber: ... wonder where they will find right-hander power. The Phillies admitted they knew this was a problem without saying a word when they tried hard in January to sign Bo Bichette. Bohm isn’t hitting; Adolis García and J.T. Realmuto have been meh. The best option in triple A is journeyman outfielder Bryan De La Cruz, who has four homers and an .806 OPS. Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper are formidable atop the order. But when they don’t produce, it often feels like the Phillies don’t score.
March: ... be concerned about the defense. The Phillies have been botching fundamental plays both in the infield and outfield. Collectively, they have posted -17 defensive runs saved for the worst marker in MLB, according to FanGraphs. “Defense wins championships” was initially coined about college football, but in baseball you won’t even make it to the postseason without it.
When will Zack Wheeler rejoin the rotation and what can we expect from him?
March: My prediction is that Wheeler will return on April 24 to start the Phillies’ series opener in Atlanta. He has another rehab start scheduled for Sunday, and the Phillies could potentially decide to give him a sixth after that. But barring any setbacks, maybe bringing back Wheeler could be the jolt this team needs. His fastball velocity has slowly continued to rise throughout his rehab assignment — which can be considered his equivalent to spring training — and it was between 92 mph and 95 mph in his start on Tuesday, according to Rob Thomson. That’s a good sign. Last season, his fastball averaged 95.9 mph.
» READ MORE: Phillies’ Alec Bohm seeks injunction ordering his parents to return $500,000
What is your level of concern over Bohm’s start?
Lauber: Let’s call it DEFCON 3. We’ve seen this before. Last year, in fact, Bohm started 9-for-60 with one extra-base hit, 13 strikeouts, and one walk. But this year’s 9-for-62 start, with two extra-base hits, 12 strikeouts, and five walks somehow feels more dire. Because Bohm is central to driving in runs, especially against left-handed pitching. And it’s not like top prospect Aidan Miller is poised to take his job. The 21-year-old hasn’t resumed swinging a bat since the recurrence in February of a back issue that arose last season. For now, then, it’s Bohm or bust at third base.
How would you assess Justin Crawford’s start?
Lauber: Promising. Crawford arrived with a reputation for putting the bat on the ball, even if it isn’t always pretty, and using his speed. In that sense, the 22-year-old rookie center fielder has been as advertised. Nearly 70% of Crawford’s batted balls have been on the ground (league average is 42.9%), yet he’s batting .283 with a .345 on-base percentage. Is that sustainable? With his speed, maybe.
» READ MORE: From pitching to grilling, ‘Andy’ Painter is (finally) ready to cook for the Phillies
What about Andrew Painter?
March: Impressive. What stands out the most is how Painter handled himself in his last outing, overcoming a migraine to pitch five innings out of the bullpen, striking out seven, after being scratched from his start. Painter, 23, is carrying himself like a major leaguer and has a clear willingness to learn and improve. Through 14⅓ innings, he has a 3.77 ERA, but his underlying performance has been even better than that. His expected ERA, which takes into account quality of contact, is 2.22.
Who do you think will ultimately be the answer at the cleanup spot?
Lauber: Is it cheating to say it’s someone who isn’t in the organization yet? A name to watch: Isaac Paredes. The Astros got offers for the righty-hitting third baseman in the offseason but didn’t move him. He’s playing now because shortstop Jeremy Peña Jr. has a mildly strained hamstring. But when Peña returns, Carlos Correa will move back to third, sending Paredes to … the bench? Or maybe packing in a trade.
March: García, provided he can get back to controlling the strike zone. Recently, he has been striking out at a high clip, but when he makes contact, it’s typically solid. García’s hard-hit rate (52.2%) and average exit velocity (93.2 mph) are both the highest on the team.
Gage Wood might have pitched the best game in college baseball history 10 months ago. Now, with Andrew Painter in the majors, Wood is the Phillies’ top pitching prospect. The 22-year-old righty joins Phillies Extra, The Inquirer’s baseball podcast, to discuss his strong start to the season. Watch here.
You can also subscribe to the podcast version of Phillies Extra on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
Previous episodes: Scott Boras | Brian Barber | Aaron Nola | Justin Crawford | Garrett Stubbs | Kyle Schwarber | Brad Keller | J.T.Realmuto | Orion Kerkering | Whit Merrifield
