Bettors feeling good about Phillies’ win total going over
The line is 80.5 wins, and a healthy majority locally is taking the Phillies to go beyond that number. Plus, the Anaheim Angel putting fear into Vegas bookmakers is not Mike Trout.
If the local betting action is right, there is a glimmer of hope for the Phillies this year. Maybe not to win the World Series, but an overwhelming majority of the money says that the Phillies at least finish .500.
“We’re seeing optimism there,” said Jim Llewellyn, the manager for Rivers Casino sportsbook.
One of the most intriguing props offered each year is an over/under for each team’s win total. The consensus Phillies line is 80.5, but the odds are a little weighted at -143 for over, +113 for under. Llewellyn said that as of early this week, 96% of the tickets, and 98% of the handle for Rivers’ sportsbooks statewide, was on over 80.5 wins.
“They’re going for the over,” Llewellyn said of his customers. “Center field notwithstanding, I think there’s a lot of optimism about the fixes the team has put in place, and we’re kind of seeing that.”
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Regional favoritism is to be expected, but this is pretty hefty. The Phillies went 28-32 last year with a bullpen that was historically bad. FanDuel’s line is 81.5 with the over at -116.
Betting will pick up this week now that the men’s NCAA basketball tournament is down to four teams, Llewellyn said. Wagering on baseball futures (World Series, league MVP, etc.) will continue even after the season has started.
The Dodgers are the consensus favorite to repeat as World Series champs. Adding reigning Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer from Cincinnati only strengthens their odds at +350. The Yankees are +550, San Diego +800. The Phillies are +4000.
William Hill US has taken major action on Anaheim’s Shohei Ohtani to win American League MVP, including a $30,000 bet when Ohtani was at 30-1 odds. He’s currently at 15-1 at their ‘book.
“There’s definitely some Angels love in the futures markets,” said Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill’s director of trading. “We get crushed with the Angels for the World Series. We certainly don’t want Ohtani to win MVP. But it’s still early. Once the [NCAA] tournament is behind us and baseball starts playing every day, those markets are going to pick up even more.”
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This and that
DraftKings is holding a $1,000 ticket on the Phillies to win the World Series at 40-1, and another $4,000 play on the Phillies to win the NL East at a shade under 9-1 (+$875). That pays out $39,000.
Always shop around. Bryce Harper is 15-1 to win the NL MVP at Rivers and FanDuel, but 17-1 at BetMGM.
Llewellyn said he’s holding a $1,000 play on Minnesota’s Kenta Maeda to lead the league in wins. The odds of 61-1 seem generous after Maeda finished second in Cy Young voting in last year’s shortened season.
Rivers also has a $2,500 play on under Pirates 59.5 wins at -111 odds. Payout would be $4,750.
FanDuel’s line on the number of home runs Bryce Harper will hit this year is 36.5. Mike Trout is 41.5, Pete Alonso is 40.5. Odds vary.
William Hill took a $10,000 bet in New Jersey on Trout to win the MVP at +230. Last season Trout finished fifth in MVP voting, just the second time in his nine-year career that he wasn’t first or second. Amazing.